Kevin Warsh just defied Donald Trump. Now what?

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters/File

The Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years has ushered in a new twist to the already unusual relationship between President Donald Trump and the world’s most powerful central bank.

Trump raised eyebrows on Wednesday evening by appearing to suggest that he gave Kevin Warsh, his handpicked Fed chairman, permission to raise rates – even though it was the “wrong” move. The president implied that Warsh had no choice but to embrace a rate increase because the Fed chief was outnumbered on the “hostile” rate-setting committee he oversees.

“I talked to Kevin and I said you might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter…I said, ‘Do what you want because it doesn’t matter’ because he doesn’t have the votes,” Trump told reporters.

The remarks raise plenty of questions about how much – if at all – Warsh is consulting with a president who has been willing to cross red lines in his quest for dramatically lower interest rates.

Those questions are especially sensitive because the Fed is designed to be insulated from the political winds in Washington. Central bankers are required to make trillion-dollar decisions on whether to raise or lower interest rates based on what’s best for the economy, not for the political party in power.

Tellingly, some Fed watchers and former officials reacted to the remarks with disbelief.

“It’s an unusual and unfortunate comment to make. Clearly, the Fed chair does not need the president’s permission to raise rates,” Eric Rosengren, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, told CNN on Thursday. “The implication is that the chair got a hall pass. I have no idea how truthful the comment was.”

Krishna Guha, vice chairman and head of economics and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI who criticized Warsh’s initial stumbles, dismissed Trump’s claims.

“The market believes – and with good grounds – that Kevin Warsh owned this decision and that the committee was strongly united behind him,” Guha said. “There is no evidence here or to the market at large that Warsh was dragged into this by colleagues – or permissioned by the president.”

The risk is that Trump fuels suspicions that swirled on Wall Street this summer that Warsh may not be truly independent. That’s dangerous because a Fed doing the White House’s bidding could lose control of market-set interest rates , dramatically increasing the cost of mortgages and car loans. And a loss of faith in Fed independence could unhinge inflation expectations among investors and consumers.

The Fed declined to comment to CNN about Trump’s remarks.

For his part, Warsh tap-danced around questions related to the man who nominated him.

“I’m not a Wall Street newsletter. Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is a two-way street,” Warsh said during the press conference on Wednesday. “We’ll let people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane, too. That’s how we can stand up here and call them the way we see them.”

Asked by a reporter when he last spoke with the president, Warsh said : “I don’t have anything for you on discussions with the president.”

Tim Mahedy, CEO and chief economist at research firm Access/Macro, said he found that response from Warsh “strange.”

“The right answer is, ‘I didn’t talk to the president.’ I don’t think the president is talking to Warsh beforehand. That would be shocking,” said Mahedy, a former official at the IMF and San Francisco Fed.

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

The other risk is that, intentionally or not, Trump diminishes Warsh as an ineffectual leader – just as he appeared to be starting to find his footing.

“It makes it seem like Warsh has no control over this committee, like he was completely ineffectual in convincing his colleagues,” said Mahedy.

Warsh emerged from the meeting looking independent. Not only did he preside over a rate hike the White House did not want, but he explained it clearly and with the unanimous support of his colleagues – including former Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

“It felt like the day the Fed became Warsh’s Fed,” Evercore’s Guha said. “He was a lot more assured, coherent and credible yesterday. What he’s saying basically adds up.”

But now if Warsh and a majority of his colleagues on the committee decide against a rate hike, he will face questions about whether the president put his finger on the scale.

In the past, most presidents have gone out of their way to even avoid the appearance of interfering with the Fed because it was widely accepted that an independent Fed builds confidence.

None of this is to say Trump unleashed on the Fed in a way that would have unnerved investors. In fact, Trump’s initial reaction to the first rate hike under Warsh was relatively mild, especially compared with his relentless and deeply personal condemnation of Powell, his last handpicked Fed chair.

While Trump bashed Warsh’s colleagues as “very hostile” and “very political,” he singled out the Fed chief for praise. “He’s a good man, Kevin Warsh,” Trump said.

“People were fearful of a fierce backlash from the president against this decision to raise rates and a resumption of the conflict between the White House and the Fed,” Guha said.

Of course, the Warsh-Trump relationship will continue to evolve, likely guided by what happens next to inflation, borrowing costs and the path of the S&P 500 and all-important Treasury rates.

Mahedy said he worries that the relationship will break down if the Warsh-led Fed continues to raise rates – as many suspect it will be forced to.

“It’s not hard to see more blame being put on the Fed and Warsh – and then it will start to look a lot like Powell,” said Mahedy. “It’s kind of a train wreck – but a slow-moving one.”

乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社/档案照片

美联储三年来的首次加息，给唐纳德·特朗普总统与世界上最有影响力的中央银行之间本已不寻常的关系带来了新的转折。

周三晚间，特朗普的一番言论引发了广泛关注。他似乎暗示，自己曾授权其钦点的美联储主席凯文·沃什加息，尽管这是一个“错误”的举动。总统暗示，沃什别无选择，只能接受加息，因为在由他领导的、立场“敌对”的利率制定委员会中，沃什处于少数派。

“我和凯文谈过了，我说你最好还是和董事会一起投票，因为这无关紧要……我说，‘你想做什么就做什么，因为这无关紧要’，因为他没有足够的票数，”特朗普告诉记者。

这些言论引发了许多疑问，即沃什究竟在多大程度上（如果有的话）咨询过一位为了大幅降低利率而不惜越过红线的总统。

这些问题尤其敏感，因为美联储的设计初衷就是为了免受华盛顿政治风向的影响。央行行长们必须根据经济利益而非执政党的利益，做出关乎万亿美元利率增减的决策。

值得注意的是，一些美联储观察人士和前官员对这些言论表示难以置信。

“这番言论不同寻常，也令人遗憾。显然，美联储主席无需总统批准即可加息，”波士顿联邦储备银行前行长埃里克·罗森格伦周四对CNN表示。“言下之意是，主席获得了特权。我不知道这番言论有多少真实性可言。”

Evercore ISI 副董事长兼经济和央行战略主管 Krishna Guha 批评了 Warsh 最初的失误，并驳斥了特朗普的说法。

古哈表示：“市场有充分理由相信，凯文·沃什主导了这项决定，委员会也坚定地支持他。无论是这里还是整个市场，都没有证据表明沃什是被同事胁迫做出这项决定，也没有证据表明他得到了总裁的许可。”

风险在于，特朗普此举可能会加剧今年夏天华尔街盛行的疑虑，即沃什可能并非真正独立。这十分危险，因为如果美联储听命于白宫，就可能失去对市场利率的控制权，从而大幅推高抵押贷款和汽车贷款的成本。此外，对美联储独立性的信心丧失，也可能扰乱投资者和消费者的通胀预期。

美联储拒绝就特朗普的言论向CNN发表评论。

沃什则对与提名他的人有关的问题避而不谈。

“我不是华尔街的财经通讯社。美联储独立性的一部分就在于我们恪守本职。独立是双向的，”沃什在周三的新闻发布会上说。“我们也会让那些制定贸易政策和财政政策的人恪守本职。正因如此，我们才能站在这里，直言不讳地指出他们的错误。”

当记者问沃什上次与总统交谈是什么时候时，沃什说：“关于与总统的谈话，我没有什么可以告诉你的。”

研究公司 Access/Macro 的首席执行官兼首席经济学家 Tim Mahedy 表示，他觉得 Warsh 的回应“很奇怪”。

“正确的答案是，‘我没有和总统谈过。’我认为总统事先没有和沃什谈过。那才令人震惊，”马赫迪说道，他曾是国际货币基金组织和旧金山联邦储备银行的官员。

马克·谢费尔贝因/美联社

另一个风险是，无论是有意还是无意，特朗普可能会贬低沃什，把他描绘成一个无能的领导人——而沃什似乎刚刚开始站稳脚跟。

“这让人觉得沃什对这个委员会没有控制权，好像他完全没能说服他的同事们，”马赫迪说。

沃什会后显得十分独立。他不仅主持了白宫不愿看到的加息，而且还清晰地解释了加息原因，并获得了包括美联储前主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在内的所有同事的一致支持。

“感觉就像美联储从那天起就变成了沃什领导下的美联储，”Evercore公司的古哈说。“他昨天显得更加自信、条理清晰、可信。他说的基本上都是有道理的。”

但现在，如果沃什和委员会中的大多数同事决定不加息，他将面临总统是否干预加息的质疑。

过去，大多数总统都竭尽全力避免给人留下干预美联储的印象，因为人们普遍认为，一个独立的美联储能够建立信心​​。

这并非意味着特朗普对美联储的抨击会令投资者感到不安。事实上，特朗普对沃什上任以来首次加息的最初反应相对温和，尤其与他对鲍威尔——他亲自挑选的最后一任美联储主席——的持续不断的、带有强烈个人色彩的谴责相比更是如此。

尽管特朗普抨击沃什的同事们“非常敌对”且“非常政治化”，但他却对美联储主席沃什本人大加赞赏。“他是个好人，凯文·沃什，”特朗普说道。

古哈说：“人们担心总统会对加息决定做出强烈反弹，并导致白宫与美联储之间的冲突再次爆发。”

当然，沃什与特朗普的关系将继续发展，这很可能取决于通货膨胀、借贷成本、标普 500 指数的走势以及至关重要的国债利率。

马赫迪表示，他担心如果沃什领导的美联储继续加息（许多人怀疑美联储将被迫这样做），双方关系将会破裂。

“不难看出，美联储和沃什将承担更多责任——然后情况就会越来越像鲍威尔了，”马赫迪说。“这就像一场灾难——但进展缓慢。”