Johnson vows defense budget hike by 2030, but critics want it sooner

LONDON — After days of infighting between senior members of the British government over the future level of defense spending Prime Minister Boris Johnson has used his closing remarks to the NATO summit in Madrid June 30 to suggest the budget may rise substantially by the end of the decade.

Johnson told reporters at a news conference in Madrid that defense spending could reach 2.5 percent of GDP within eight years.

“We need to invest for the long term in vital capabilities like future combat air, while simultaneously adapting to a more dangerous and competitive world,” he said. “The logical conclusion of the investments we propose to embark … is 2.5% of GDP on defense by the end of the decade.”

The statement about spending came after Johnson said Britain was increasing military aid to Ukraine by £1 billion, or roughly $1.2 billion taking London’s total contribution to £2.3 billion – paid for by the Treasury.

Currently the British just meet the NATO target requiring members to spend 2 percent of GDP on the military. Few countries in the alliance currently meet that target.

The remarks by Johnson referring to a “logical conclusion " that spending would rise to 2.5 percent fell well short of a commitment to raise defense spending to levels many here think are required to meet the threat posed by Russia.

Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Select Committee, told BBC Radio 4 news that for the moment Johnson’s remarks were simply “encouraging words.”

The Conservative Party lawmaker also called on the government to reverse planned cuts that would see the British Army numbers reduced to 72,500 personnel from its current level of 82,000.

John Healey, the Labour Party shadow defense secretary, said that defense spending needed to be raised immediately.

“With war in Europe and the threats growing, Britain needs to reboot defense planning now – not duck difficult decisions until the end of the decade. No one thinks the prime minister will be around to keep this 2030 pledge,” said Healey.

The BBC reported Tobias Ellwood, the chairman of the Defence Select Committee, as criticizing the increase as too little and too late.

“This timid increase over eight years shows we still don’t appreciate the changing geopolitical landscape and the scale of threats coming over the horizon,” Ellwood, a strong Johnson critic, said. “The funds are needed immediately to reverse cuts to troop numbers, tanks, ships and fast jets – not in eight years’ time,” he added.

Estimates put the proposed increase in defense spending cumulatively at £55 billion, or $67 billion, by the end of the decade.

Nobody is clear just where the money might come from without raising taxes.

High inflation numbers are also putting pressure on a government commitment to increase the MoD’s annual equipment spending 0.5 percent above inflation until 2024.

Johnson’s remarks bring to a close for now his feuding with Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and others over defense spending levels.

Earlier in the week Wallace was reported to have written a letter to Johnson calling for an increase in spending to the 2.5 percent level by 2028 but was told by Johnson’s office to take out the numbers he planned to use in a speech to the Royal United Services Institute on June 29.

Instead Wallace settled for a revision of his speech which merely said: “It is now time to signal that the peace dividend is over, and investment needs to continue to grow.”

Wallace was critical of cuts to military capabilities in the past few years.

“For too long defense has lived on a diet of smoke and mirrors, hollowed-out formations and fantasy efficiency savings, while in the last few years the threat from states have started to increase,” Wallace said.

In a speech at RUSI ahead of Wallace the new chief of the General Staff, Gen. Sir Patrick Sanders, lashed out at continuing with cuts to the Army, saying it would be “perverse” to go ahead with the reduction as the threat grew.

Sanders said one of the initiatives he intended to move forward was the mobilization of the Army. Drawing a parallel with the run-up to World War 2 Sanders warned the audience, “This is our 1937 moment. We are not war – but must act rapidly so that we aren’t drawn into one through a failure to contain territorial expansion.”

Sanders said he intended to crank up the pace of delivery of key platforms and capabilities. “We will seek to speed up the delivery of planned new equipments, including long-range fires, attack aviation, persistent surveillance and target acquisition, expeditionary logistic enablers, ground-based air defense, protected mobility, and the technologies that will prove pivotal to our digital ambition: communications and information systems, and electronic warfare. Most importantly, this will start now – not at some ill-defined point in the future.”

Andrew Chuter is the United Kingdom correspondent for Defense News.

伦敦——英国政府高层成员就未来国防开支水平进行了数日的内讧后，首相鲍里斯·约翰逊在6月30日马德里北约峰会的闭幕致辞中表示，到本十年末，国防预算可能会大幅增长。

约翰逊在马德里举行的新闻发布会上告诉记者，国防开支可能在八年内达到GDP的2.5%。

他说：“我们需要对未来作战航空等关键能力进行长期投资，同时也要适应一个更加危险和竞争激烈的世界。我们提议开展的投资最终将达到GDP的2.5%，这才是本十年末国防开支的必然结果。”

在约翰逊表示英国将增加对乌克兰的军事援助 10 亿英镑（约合 12 亿美元），使伦敦的总贡献达到 23 亿英镑（由财政部支付）之后，有关支出的声明随之而来。

目前英国勉强达到北约成员国军费开支占GDP 2%的目标。北约成员国中，目前很少有国家能达到这一目标。

约翰逊的言论提到“合乎逻辑的结论”是国防开支将上升到 2.5%，但这远未达到将国防开支提高到许多人认为应对俄罗斯威胁所必需的水平的承诺。

英国议会外交事务特别委员会主席汤姆·图根哈特告诉BBC广播4台新闻，目前约翰逊的言论仅仅是“鼓励的话语”。

这位保守党议员还呼吁政府撤销计划中的裁军措施，该措施将使英国陆军人数从目前的 82,000 人减少到 72,500 人。

工党影子国防大臣约翰·希利表示，国防开支需要立即增加。

“随着欧洲战事加剧，威胁日益增长，英国现在就需要重启国防规划，而不是拖延艰难的抉择直到十年末。没有人认为首相会在任期间履行2030年的承诺，”希利说道。

BBC报道称，国防特别委员会主席托比亚斯·埃尔伍德批评此次增资力度太小、为时已晚。

“八年来这种微不足道的增长表明，我们仍然没有充分认识到地缘政治格局的变化以及即将到来的威胁的规模，”埃尔伍德说道，他是约翰逊的坚定批评者。“我们需要立即拨款来扭转削减部队人数、坦克、舰艇和战斗机的局面——而不是等到八年后，”他补充道。

据估计，到本十年末，国防开支累计增幅将达到 550 亿英镑，即 670 亿美元。

目前还不清楚在不增税的情况下，这笔钱该从哪里来。

高通胀数据也给政府承诺将国防部年度装备支出提高到比通胀率高出 0.5% 的水平，直至 2024 年，带来了压力。

约翰逊的这番言论暂时结束了他与国防大臣本·华莱士等人之间关于国防开支水平的争执。

据报道，本周早些时候，华莱士曾致信约翰逊，呼吁到 2028 年将支出增加到 2.5% 的水平，但约翰逊的办公室告诉他，要删除他计划在 6 月 29 日向皇家联合军种研究所发表的演讲中使用的数字。

华莱士最终只修改了他的演讲稿，其中只写道：“现在是时候发出信号，和平红利已经结束，投资需要继续增长。”

华莱士对过去几年削减军事能力的做法持批评态度。

“长期以来，国防一直依赖于虚张声势、空洞的组织和不切实际的效率节约，而近几年来，来自各州的威胁已经开始增加，”华莱士说。

在华莱士将军就职前夕，皇家联合军种研究所（RUSI）的新任总参谋长帕特里克·桑德斯爵士将军发表讲话，猛烈抨击继续削减陆军规模的做法，称随着威胁的加剧，继续削减军备是“荒谬的”。

桑德斯表示，他计划推进的举措之一是动员军队。他将当前形势与二战前夕相提并论，警告听众：“我们现在正处于1937年的时刻。我们并非处于战争状态，但必须迅速行动，以免因未能遏制领土扩张而被卷入战争。”

桑德斯表示，他计划加快关键平台和能力的交付速度。“我们将努力加快计划中的新装备的交付，包括远程火力、攻击航空、持续监视和目标获取、远征后勤保障、地面防空、防护机动，以及对我们数字化目标至关重要的技术：通信和信息系统以及电子战。最重要的是，这一切现在就开始——而不是在未来某个不确定的时间点。”

Andrew Chuter 是《防务新闻》的英国记者。