Democracies must stand together on defense

Authoritarians, terrorists and their proxies are aligned in their fight against democracy and the rules-based international order. The barbaric attack on Israel by Hamas is the latest manifestation of this. Russia continues its brutal war against Ukraine and is prepared for a long one. Together with China’s growing military power and assertiveness, the world is facing the most complex security environment in decades.

Simultaneous strategic dilemmas should be our main planning assumption. Excessive strategic focus on one near-peer state, priority theater or domain might mean that we are half ready or not ready at all to tackle all the shapes of tyranny acting in concert.

It is time to be at the top of our game; our response will shape the security environment for decades and generations to come. There is only one choice: to do everything it takes through unity and resolve. And there is only one way to do it: together within our alliances.

This is the choice Lithuania has firmly made and will continue to implement. We invest heavily in our defense. We strengthen the European pillar of NATO. We will continue supporting Ukraine as long as it takes. We build relationships with Indo-Pacific partners, recognizing that the security of our regions is interconnected. We do our part in defense both by acting independently and together with our European allies; the decision to deploy a permanent German brigade in Lithuania is the very first, sound and visible proof of that. The first elements are to be deployed as early as 2024.

However, the challenges of today can only be properly responded to by tip-of-the-spear U.S. leadership and U.S. forward basing. There is no substitute for that. Any type of U.S. isolation or neutrality in world affairs or erosion of military power in one strategic direction means an opportunity for nuclear authoritarians. This translates into bloody and costly regional wars, which escalate into strategic conflicts and, with a big bang, bring the U.S. back on the world stage to clean up the mess. The U.S. standing at the summit of democracies will remain in high demand in 2024 and the decade to come.

Do not underestimate Russia. Though it has not achieved its initial aims in Ukraine, Russia will continue the war of attrition and will restore its conventional military power sooner rather than later. Nuclear and other strategic elements are intact — modernized, fully integrated with conventional elements and well postured. For the first time after the end of the Cold War, some of these weapons are stationed outside of Russia — in Belarus, our neighbor.

The quality and even quantity of Russian conventional military capabilities, as well as Moscow’s observable operational failures, are not the best indicators for the regime’s strategic opportunism and related dangers. Let us bear this in mind in 2024 and beyond .

What do we need to do to ensure peace in the Euro-Atlantic area? In 2024, I would be looking for at least four success stories of unfinished business on the road between this year’s Vilnius summit and next year’s gathering in Washington.

First, NATO is strong, ready for collective defense and united with resolute U.S. leadership. NATO needs leadership that unites America internally as well its allies. As for the allied input, I expect visible progress of the Vilnius defense pledge — to spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on defense — as I do of the less visible, but equally important, input to the NATO force structure. It is critical for defense of every inch, as agreed.

Lithuania in 2023 spent about 2.76% of its GDP on defense , and the goal is to keep the pace of increasing the defense budget and effectively transforming it into real capabilities . War-mode thinking enables a fast modernization of the Lithuanian armed forces. We are developing our maneuver units, their lethality and firepower, but also purchasing more UAVs and cyber capabilities as well as rapidly expanding host-nation support for enhanced allied readiness initiatives here.

Second, we need a visible boost of the defense industry and continued prioritization of front-line states. Russia is out-producing the West in some critical areas, such as the production of artillery rounds, with a wartime industry mode on. A swift increase in the allied defense production capacity is critical to ensure we can replenish our stocks and modernize while continuing the flow of military aid to Ukraine.

The United States is a key military supplier to Lithuania, with contracts worth 2% of our GDP. Yet, contracts will turn into capabilities no earlier than 2026-2029. We cannot allow Russians to reconstitute faster than our basic requirements, and this is especially acute for the front-line states.

Third, NATO is boosting its forward-defense posture with more brigades, ships, air defense and artillery units in place. Lithuania is increasing its force structure by developing a national division. Together with persistent rotations of the U.S. combined arms battalion and permanent German brigade in Lithuania, it will be the key pillar of combat-credible effects for deterrence and defense in Lithuania, which we will aim to sustain in the long term.

To respond to a growing China challenge, we will need an integrated strategy and operational solutions; Lithuania will plug in. Our government has recently approved a strategy for cooperation with likeminded nations in the Indo-Pacific region, which includes cooperation on security issues.

Fourth, victory for Ukraine is paramount. The most important success story is needed in 2024, if we, democracies, want to be and remain at the top of our game.

Arvydas Anušauskas is the defense minister of Lithuania.

独裁者、恐怖分子及其代理人沆瀣一气，共同对抗民主和基于规则的国际秩序。哈马斯对以色列发动的野蛮袭击便是这一趋势的最新体现。俄罗斯继续对乌克兰发动残酷战争，并已做好长期作战的准备。加之中国日益增长的军事实力和日益强硬的姿态，世界正面临着数十年来最为复杂的安全环境。

同时存在的战略困境应是我们规划的主要假设。过度关注某个势均力敌的国家、优先战区或领域，可能意味着我们准备不足，甚至根本没有准备好应对各种形式的暴政同时出现的情况。

现在正是我们全力以赴的时候；我们的应对措施将影响未来数十年乃至数代人的安全环境。我们别无选择：必须团结一致，坚定决心，竭尽所能。而实现这一目标的唯一途径，就是在我们的联盟框架内携手合作。

这是立陶宛坚定做出的选择，并将继续贯彻执行。我们大力投资国防。我们加强北约欧洲支柱。我们将继续支持乌克兰，直至其获得所需资源。我们与印太伙伴建立关系，因为我们认识到各地区的安全息息相关。我们既独立行动，也与欧洲盟友携手合作，尽己所能地履行国防责任；决定在立陶宛部署一支常驻德国旅，正是这一承诺的第一个切实可见的证明。首批部队最早将于2024年部署到位。

然而，唯有美国发挥先锋领导作用并进行前沿部署，才能妥善应对当今的挑战。除此之外，别无他法。任何形式的美国孤立、在世界事务中保持中立，或在任何战略方向上削弱军事力量，都意味着核威权主义者的机会。这将导致血腥且代价高昂的地区战争，进而升级为战略冲突，最终以一场巨大的风暴将美国重新拉回世界舞台，收拾残局。在2024年及未来十年，美国作为民主国家之巅的地位仍将备受瞩目。

不要低估俄罗斯。尽管它在乌克兰的最初目标尚未实现，但俄罗斯将继续进行消耗战，并会尽快恢复其常规军事力量。其核武器和其他战略要素完好无损——已完成现代化改造，与常规军事力量完全融合，并部署到位。冷战结束后，这些武器首次部署在俄罗斯境外——我们的邻国白俄罗斯。

俄罗斯常规军事能力的质量乃至数量，以及莫斯科显而易见的作战失误，都不是衡量该政权战略机会主义及其相关危险的最佳指标。让我们在2024年及以后牢记这一点。

为了确保欧洲-大西洋地区的和平，我们需要做些什么？到2024年，我希望看到至少四个未竟之事在今年维尔纽斯峰会和明年华盛顿峰会之间取得圆满成功。

首先，北约实力雄厚，已做好集体防御准备，并在美国坚定领导下团结一致。北约需要能够团结美国及其盟国的领导层。至于盟国的投入，我期待维尔纽斯防务承诺——即至少将国内生产总值的2%用于国防——能够取得显著进展，正如我期待北约部队结构中那些不太显眼但同样重要的投入能够取得进展一样。正如双方所商定的，这对于每一寸土地的防御都至关重要。

2023年，立陶宛国防开支约占国内生产总值的2.76%，目标是保持国防预算增长的步伐，并将其有效转化为实际作战能力。战时思维模式能够推动立陶宛武装部队的快速现代化。我们正在发展机动部队，提升其杀伤力和火力，同时也在采购更多无人机和网络作战能力，并迅速扩大东道国对加强盟军战备倡议的支持。

其次，我们需要切实提升国防工业水平，并继续优先保障前线国家的利益。俄罗斯在一些关键领域，例如炮弹生产，已经超越西方，这得益于其战时工业模式。盟国国防生产能力的迅速提升至关重要，这不仅能确保我们能够补充库存、实现现代化，还能保障对乌克兰的军事援助持续不断。

美国是立陶宛的关键军事供应国，合同金额相当于我们GDP的2%。然而，这些合同最早也要到2026年至2029年才能转化为实际能力。我们不能允许俄罗斯的军事能力恢复速度超过我们的基本需求，这对前线国家而言尤为重要。

第三，北约正在通过部署更多旅级单位、舰艇、防空部队和炮兵部队来加强其前沿防御态势。立陶宛正在通过组建国家师来增强其兵力结构。加上美国联合兵种营的持续轮换和德国常驻立陶宛旅，这将成为立陶宛威慑和防御中具有实战效力的关键支柱，我们将力求长期维持这一优势。

为应对日益严峻的中国挑战，我们需要一套综合战略和行动方案；立陶宛将积极参与其中。我国政府近期已批准一项与印太地区志同道合国家开展合作的战略，其中包括在安全问题上的合作。

第四，乌克兰的胜利至关重要。如果我们这些民主国家想要保持领先地位，那么2024年就必须取得最重要的胜利。

阿维达斯·阿努萨乌斯卡斯 (Arvydas Anušauskas) 是立陶宛国防部长。