Judging capabilities and intentions of others can help Singapore navigate opportunities, risks: Chan Chun Sing

Singapore's continued ability to interpret and project — ahead of time — the implications of personalities, institutions and forces shaping the world are necessary for the country to stay relevant, connected and ahead, said Coordinating Minister for Public Services Chan Chun Sing on Tuesday (Sept 22).

"Think of not just trying to understand what is happening; but trying to think two or three steps ahead, and to forewarn Singapore before what people thought would never happen actually does," said Chan at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies' (RSIS) 30th anniversary distinguished lecture.

But while celebrating the milestone, Chan, who is also Singapore's Minister for Defence and Minister-in-charge of the Public Service, cautioned that the world has changed over the past 30 years.

He pointed to how the US-China rivalry now spans across trade, technology, supply chains, and ideology; and how economic interdependence, which was once seen as a source of shared prosperity, has now become a tool of leverage and coercion.

And while Singapore can never change its geography, nor opt out of geopolitics, it can choose to continuously understand the world better.

"What we can do, and what we must do, is to understand the world more deeply than others would expect a small state to — and more importantly, to use that understanding to stay relevant, to stay connected, and to stay ahead."

Understanding personalities, institutions, forces at play

To do this, the coordinating minister said that RSIS must aspire to be the institution that keeps a "deep, granular human understanding" of specific leaders and their worldviews, insecurities and ambitions.

It also means understanding the personalities, institutional pressures and domestic politics that may affect the foreign and domestic policy of big and middle powers.

"(This) requires persistent research, language skills, long-cultivated relationships, and genuine intellectual immersion in other societies," Chan emphasised.

Citing his observations at the recent RSIS Trilateral Exchange, involving American and Chinese academics which was held in Singapore in July, Chan noted that Singapore's value in the discussions depended entirely on the quality of its understanding and credibility of its analysis.

That credibility, he said, has to be continuously earned.

Turning to interactions closer to home, Chan warned that Singapore cannot take its relationship with its closest neighbours — Malaysia and Indonesia for granted.

He said that these relationships require the same depth of history, political culture, and the deep forces shaping their societies from within, including their economic structures, demographics, and relationships between the different states and institutions within their polities.

And alongside these geopolitical shifts, Chan pointed out that technology is also redrawing the boundaries of security and warfare.

This, as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, and drones change how conflicts are fought and power is projected.

"Conflicts today do not begin only when shots are fired; they begin long before — in cyberspace, in the information environment, in the grey zones below the threshold of traditional war," the Defence Minister said.

He added that RSIS can help Singapore think through both the opportunities and risks as a small state — in terms of what they mean for how the country can organise, operate, and make decisions.

This includes ensuring that human judgement remains at the centre of consequential choices, even with AI, Chan said.

And where technologies cross borders, RSIS' role can be in helping to develop the common ground and shared expectations of responsible behaviour that, in turn, reduce the risk of miscalculation.

"Because in the end, this is what it is all about: sound judgement about the capabilities and intentions of others.

"Capabilities are easier to see and assess based on what we can gather from various sources, but intentions are hard," Chan said.

It is this ability to distinguish "signal" from "noise" and the wisdom of knowing when to act and when to hold back, that could become consequential, he added.

Closing off his speech, Chan point out that in an evolving world, Singapore needs its own strategic voice: "Our task is to see it clearly, understand it deeply, and help Singapore navigate it wisely – ahead of time."

新加坡公共服务统筹部长陈振声周二（9月22日）表示，新加坡必须继续具备提前解读和预测塑造世界的人物、机构和力量的影响的能力，才能保持其相关性、联系性和领先地位。

陈教授在拉惹勒南国际研究院 (RSIS) 30 周年杰出讲座上说：“不要只想着理解正在发生的事情；而是要试着提前两三步思考，并在人们认为永远不会发生的事情真正发生之前就警告新加坡。”

但在庆祝这一里程碑的同时，同时也是新加坡国防部长兼公共服务部长的陈庆炎也提醒说，过去 30 年来，世界已经发生了变化。

他指出，美中竞争如今已扩展到贸易、技术、供应链和意识形态等领域；曾经被视为共同繁荣之源的经济相互依存，如今已沦为一种筹码和胁迫的工具。

虽然新加坡永远无法改变其地理位置，也无法置身地缘政治之外，但它可以选择不断更好地了解世界。

“我们能做的，也是我们必须做的，就是比其他人期望一个小国更深刻地了解世界——更重要的是，利用这种理解来保持相关性、保持联系并保持领先地位。”

了解人物、制度和各种作用因素

为此，协调部长表示，拉脱维亚国际研究院必须努力成为对特定领导人及其世界观、不安全感和抱负保持“深刻、细致的人性理解”的机构。

这也意味着要了解可能影响大国和中等强国外交和内政的各方人物、制度压力和国内政治因素。

“（这）需要持续的研究、语言技能、长期培养的关系以及对其他社会的真正深入的了解，”陈强调说。

陈教授援引他最近在新加坡举行的中美学者三方交流会（RSIS Trilateral Exchange）上的观察，指出新加坡在讨论中的价值完全取决于其理解的质量和分析的可信度。

他说，这种信誉必须不断地赢得。

谈到与国内的互动，陈警告说，新加坡不能将与最亲密的邻国——马来西亚和印度尼西亚的关系视为理所当然。

他表示，这些关系需要同样深厚的历史底蕴、政治文化，以及塑造其社会内部的深层力量，包括其经济结构、人口结构以及其政治体系内不同国家和机构之间的关系。

除了这些地缘政治变化之外，陈还指出，技术也在重新划分安全和战争的边界。

这是因为人工智能（AI）、自主系统和无人机正在改变冲突的进行方式和力量的投射方式。

国防部长表示：“如今的冲突并非始于枪声响起之时；它们早在枪声响起之前就已经开始——在网络空间、信息环境以及传统战争门槛以下的灰色地带。”

他还补充说，RSIS可以帮助新加坡作为一个小国，思考机遇和风险——以及这些机遇和风险对国家如何组织、运作和做出决策的意义。

陈表示，这包括确保即使有了人工智能，人类的判断仍然在重大决策中处于核心地位。

当技术跨越国界时，RSIS 的作用在于帮助建立共同基础和负责任行为的共同期望，从而降低误判的风险。

“因为归根结底，这就是一切的意义所在：对他人能力和意图做出正确的判断。”

“能力更容易根据我们从各种渠道收集到的信息进行观察和评估，但意图却很难判断，”陈说。

他补充说，正是这种区分“信号”和“噪音”的能力，以及懂得何时行动、何时克制的智慧，可能会产生重大影响。

陈先生在演讲结尾指出，在一个不断变化的世界中，新加坡需要发出自己的战略声音：“我们的任务是看清形势，深入了解形势，并帮助新加坡提前明智地应对形势。”