What is the long-term strategy for Ukraine’s Air Force?

On May 19, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the country would help train and support the transfer by European allies of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine . But the F-16s are older aircraft that will need to be replaced in just a few years, so some consideration should be paid now to what’s next for the Ukraine Air Force.

The current plan is to begin training experienced Ukrainian pilots while European nations begin to send aircraft from their existing inventories . Many of these aircraft were purchased in the 1980s. Most have received some upgrades, such as modern networking equipment, allowing aircraft to share targeting data with one another (known as Link 16). However, these aircraft do not have the latest sensors and electronic protections.

Many NATO members fly the F-16 and are ordering new aircraft — mainly the F-35 — to replace their aging fleets. F-35s are slow to arrive, however, meaning that only a handful nations are prepared now to provide aircraft.

The F-16 is designed to fly up to 8,000 hours . They typically fly between 200 and 350 hours a year in peace time. Likely aircraft going to Ukraine could have up to 7,000 hours of flight time. Thus, while F-16s might offer improved capabilities compared to Ukraine’s Soviet-era fleet, they will need to be replaced in perhaps four to six years.

One option might be to provide Ukraine with new F-16 Block 70s. This option would keep Ukraine in the F-16 ecosystem — streamlining both training and sustainment — and offer the latest software, radar and electronic protection technologies. It would also allow Ukraine to continue using the weapons it has been given. But this option would be expensive and take years, and the U.S. would surely bear the cost rather than sharing it with allies.

Challenges with new F-16s

Recent F-16 Foreign Military Sales cases to Bulgaria and Slovakia illustrate the cost of modern fighters — nearly $200 million per aircraft. F-16 flight packages include initial stockpiles of parts, munitions and training. Ukraine says it intends to procure between 40 and 100 aircraft. Low-end estimates would amount to $8 billion. With funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative running out soon, new aircraft, as the Department of Defense has said, might break the bank.

F-16s also cost a substantial amount to operate. According to a recent Government Accountability Office report , operating one F-16 costs $4.6 million a year, or $184 million for a fleet of 40 aircraft. Ukraine’s Air Force budget in 2020 was nearly $1.1 billion, which included support for about 70 older, former Soviet fighters.

Time delays are another major consideration. Lockheed Martin moved the F-16 production line from Fort Worth, Texas, to Greenville, South Carolina. This required both training a new cohort of workers to produce the aircraft and the installation of machine tooling.

Slovakia, for example, placed orders for F-16s in 2018, but its first delivery will occur only in 2024, or five to six years from contract award to aircraft delivery.

Are there other options?

European allies may receive F-35s over a period of some years. This means they could continue for some time to transfer used F-16s, allowing Ukraine access to a flow of these aircraft for a decade or more. This option would allow for continued allied burden-sharing.

This also makes sense in a strategic context since Russia’s war on Ukraine may be viewed as an existential challenge to European security.

There might be other options for combat fighters, such as the Saab Gripen, the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon.

The Gripen is expensive to buy but cheaper to operate than the F-16. In recent years, Rafale aircraft have outsold F-16s on the international market, implying improved capabilities. The Eurofighter might offer the most advanced capabilities compared to the other options.

These aircraft could be available sooner than new F-16s and might offer some improved capabilities compared to older F-16s. Introducing multiple Western combat aircraft into Ukraine’s Air Force might offer some improved capabilities, but at the cost of sustainment and training challenges.

Europeans may be unlikely to finance the provision of new aircraft for Ukraine, but might be willing to provide used aircraft. Ukraine could end up with a used fleet of multiple aircraft with different maintenance, repair and overhaul requirements.

It is encouraging that Ukraine might receive F-16s to improve its combat capabilities. Over the longer term, Ukraine may seek a continuing flow of used F-16s and possibly of one or more European combat fighters. Western policymakers might begin thinking now about what the Ukrainian Air Force may require in the future , especially if the Russian threat remains acute.

John Hoehn is an associate policy researcher at the Rand think tank and a former military analyst with the Congressional Research Service. William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at Rand and former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and Georgia.

5月19日，美国总统乔·拜登宣布，美国将帮助欧洲盟国向乌克兰交付F-16战斗机，并为其提供培训和支持。但F-16战机较为老旧，几年后就需要更换，因此现在就应该认真考虑乌克兰空军的未来发展方向。

目前的计划是先培训经验丰富的乌克兰飞行员，同时欧洲各国开始从现有库存中调派飞机。这些飞机大多购于上世纪80年代。大多数飞机都进行过一些升级，例如加装了现代化的网络设备，使飞机之间能够共享目标数据（即所谓的Link 16）。然而，这些飞机并未配备最新的传感器和电子防护系统。

许多北约成员国都装备了F-16战斗机，并且正在订购新型战机——主要是F-35——以替换其老旧的机队。然而，F-35的交付速度缓慢，这意味着目前只有少数几个国家准备好提供该型战机。

F-16战斗机的设计飞行时间可达8000小时。在和平时期，它们通常每年飞行200至350小时。即将交付给乌克兰的F-16战斗机飞行时间可能高达7000小时。因此，尽管F-16的性能可能优于乌克兰的苏联时代机队，但它们或许在四到六年内就需要更换。

一种方案是向乌克兰提供新型F-16 Block 70战斗机。此方案可使乌克兰继续留在F-16生态系统中，简化训练和维护流程，并提供最新的软件、雷达和电子防护技术。此外，乌克兰还可以继续使用已获得的武器。但此方案成本高昂，耗时数年，而且美国肯定会独自承担费用，而不是与盟友分担。

新F-16战斗机的挑战

最近向保加利亚和斯洛伐克出售F-16战斗机的案例表明，现代战斗机的成本很高——每架近2亿美元。F-16的采购包包括初始零部件储备、弹药和培训。乌克兰表示计划采购40至100架F-16战斗机。保守估计，采购金额将达到80亿美元。由于乌克兰安全援助计划的资金即将耗尽，正如美国国防部所言，购买新战机可能会使乌克兰财政捉襟见肘。

F-16战斗机的运营成本也相当高昂。根据美国政府问责局最近的一份报告，运营一架F-16战斗机每年需要花费460万美元，而拥有40架飞机的机队则需要1.84亿美元。乌克兰空军2020年的预算接近11亿美元，其中包括对大约70架老旧的前苏联战斗机的维护费用。

时间延误是另一个主要考虑因素。洛克希德·马丁公司将F-16战斗机的生产线从德克萨斯州沃斯堡迁至南卡罗来纳州格林维尔。这既需要培训一批新的工人来生产飞机，也需要安装新的机床设备。

例如，斯洛伐克在 2018 年订购了 F-16 战斗机，但其首架交付要到 2024 年才会进行，从签订合同到交付飞机需要五到六年时间。

还有其他选择吗？

欧洲盟国可能会在几年内陆续接收F-35战机。这意味着他们可以继续向乌克兰转移二手F-16战机，从而使乌克兰在未来十年或更长时间内都能持续获得这些战机。这一方案将有助于盟国继续分担战机负担。

从战略角度来看，这也说得通，因为俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争可能被视为对欧洲安全的生存挑战。

对于战斗机来说，可能还有其他选择，例如萨博鹰狮、达索阵风和欧洲台风战斗机。

鹰狮战斗机购置成本高昂，但运营成本低于F-16。近年来，阵风战斗机在国际市场上的销量超过了F-16，这表明其性能有所提升。与其他选项相比，欧洲战斗机或许拥有最先进的性能。

这些飞机可能比新型F-16更早交付，并且与老款F-16相比，性能可能有所提升。向乌克兰空军引进多架西方作战飞机或许能提升其作战能力，但同时也会带来维护和训练方面的挑战。

欧洲国家可能不太可能为乌克兰提供新飞机，但或许愿意提供二手飞机。乌克兰最终可能会拥有一支由多种飞机组成的二手机队，这些飞机的维护、修理和大修需求各不相同。

令人鼓舞的是，乌克兰可能获得F-16战机以提升其作战能力。从长远来看，乌克兰或许会寻求持续获得二手F-16战机，甚至可能购买一架或多架欧洲战斗机。西方决策者现在或许应该开始考虑乌克兰空军未来的需求，尤其是在俄罗斯威胁依然严峻的情况下。

约翰·霍恩是兰德智库的副政策研究员，曾任国会研究服务处的军事分析师。威廉·考特尼是兰德智库的兼职高级研究员，曾任美国驻哈萨克斯坦和格鲁吉亚大使。