Having visited Pakistan and China, is Argentina ready to buy the JF-17 jet?

ISLAMABAD and SANTIAGO, Chile — The recent visit to Pakistan by the head of Argentina’s joint military staff has fed speculation that a JF-17 fighter jet deal is on the horizon following more than a decade of interest by the South American nation. But despite China’s willingness to help fund an acquisition program, it’s unclear if any major progress was made.

Gen. Juan Martín Paleo visited with several military and government figures June 14-15 in Islamabad including Pakistan Air Force head Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu and Minister for Defence Production Muhammad Israr Tareen.

While Paleo is Argentina’s senior military officer, he is not the key decision-maker on the selection of a new fighter jet. That role belongs to Gen. Xavier Isaac, the head of the Air Force.

In May, a delegation of Air Force pilots and technicians evaluated the JF-17 in China. This included a full technical evaluation, use of a simulator and evaluation flights. In the more recent trip to Pakistan, officials discussed collaboration on defense materiel production during a visit to the Ministry of Defence Production.

Neither the ministry, the Defence Export Promotion Organization nor the local Argentine Embassy responded to requests for additional information.

However, sources in Argentina told Defense News that officials discussed the possibility of having the FC-1 — the export variant of the JF-17 — assembled in the country, with parts and components supplied by China and Pakistan in addition to some produced locally. The country would eventually want to be able to make major modifications to its own FC-1 aircraft, said military officers and government officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of concerns over job security.

Andrei Serbin Pont, who leads the Argentina-based think tank CRIES and was previously an adviser at the country’s Strategic Affairs Secretariat, is unconvinced Paleo’s trip implies a deal for the JF-17 Thunder is imminent.

“In my experience, nothing in [the] Argentine defense sector is set [in] stone until contracts are signed and Argentina actually starts paying,” he said, especially given the country’s ongoing economic crisis is “quite profound, with reserves running dangerously low and possibilities of default.”

The government is also unlikely to make large defense investments with no political benefit; elections are a year away, which isn’t enough time for the ruling party to “harvest the political capital gained from any successful military purchases.”

The government’s preference to balance suppliers by nationality may also hinder JF-17 acquisition efforts, as it prefers “to express a certain degree of equidistance with China and the United States, hoping not to damage the relationship,” Serbin Pont explained.

Argentina’s Army is currently considering an eight-wheel drive armored fighting vehicle from China North Industries Group Corporation Limited, also known as NORINCO. If selected, “this will likely reduce the chances of the Air Force going for the JF-17, and vice versa,” he said.

Why choose the JF-17?

Since retiring its last Mirage aircraft in 2015, the Argentine Air Force has lacked high-performing, supersonic interceptors. Its current operational inventory includes at least 10 A-4 fighter-bombers, which are supplemented by armed IA-63 Pampa jet trainers.

In September 2021, Argentina’s Defense Ministry allocated $664 million for the acquisition of 12 fighter aircraft, having received offers from Russia for the MiG-29 and MiG-35 Fulcrum, as well as China and Pakistan for the JF-17, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Plans to acquire aircraft from other sources have foundered in recent years, reportedly as a result of pressure from the UK,” the London-based think tank wrote in its latest “Military Balance” report.

It’s likely Argentina is specifically considering the JF-17 Block III variant, which is currently under production for Pakistan, said Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based International Assessment and Strategy Center think tank.

The Block III features an active electronically scanned array radar as well as advanced weaponry like the PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile and supersonic anti-ship missiles. Consequently, Fisher said, the variant would “be the most competitive against British F-35B and Typhoon fighters,” and Western and Russian subsystems and components could easily be swapped for Chinese versions, potentially neutralizing the threat of sanctions .

“Argentina appears to be seeking the best capability for the lowest expenditure,” he said, and this “augurs well for the JF-17.″ The aircraft is facing off against a Danish offer of a dozen surplus F-16A/B MLU fighters.

Based on statements made by several Argentine military and government officials, there is interest in basing future interceptor jets at Rio Grande in the province of Tierra del Fuego to defend the southern tip of the country. Other possibilities include Tandil in the province of Buenos Aires, Reconquista in the province of Santa Fe and Villa Reynolds in the province of San Luis.

Asked whether the aircraft would meet operational requirements, Serbin Pont said the Air Force is effectively out of options. “So the JF-17, even with limitations in comparison to other fourth- and fourth-plus-generation fighters in the market, would be an upgrade for [Argentina’s Air Force].”

Assembly and funding

Fisher noted Argentina’s hopes to locally produce the JF-17, and wondered “whether Pakistan would approve and contribute to a competitive Argentine co-production capability,” as the South American country wants to become “a regional combat aircraft provider, with the JF-17 as its main product.”

Currently, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex has a 58% work share in the JF-17 program, meaning even aircraft exported to Myanmar by Chinese partner Chengdu Aircraft Corp. were partially manufactured in Pakistan, with final assembly by the corporation.

While the Pakistani complex would lose work due to Argentine production, it would still receive royalties. And local assembly would still see the aeronautics specialist make the same percentage of each aircraft before parts are shipped to Argentina.

Final assembly of the aircraft and the production of parts could take place at the Fábrica Argentina de Aviones “Brigadier San Martín” in Cordoba, but work would likely involve other subcontractors spread across in the country. A center for the maintenance of engines and subcomponents could be set up at the Air Force’s Área Material Río Cuarto, also in Cordoba.

It’s also possible the program would involve INVAP, a business based at Bariloche in the Patagonia region that specializes in developing radars and optronics, and has the capability to develop indigenous systems or adapt foreign systems for aircraft integration.

Fisher said Pakistan “baulked” at Argentina’s co-production plans a decade ago, but that Paleo’s visit “is a strong indication that a future Argentine acquisition of JF-17 will be done with full Pakistan cooperation and inclusion in possible co-production deals.”

Additionally, Chinese-backed local assembly and production “would add political incentive to Uruguay, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela and perhaps Cuba to consider this low-cost fighter,” he added.

Fisher believes this would aid China’s regional ambitions, noting China offered Argentina the more capable F-10C Firebird “around 2014 to 2015.″ However, “it appears that it was too expensive,” he noted.

This is unlikely to be an issue for the more affordable JF-17, as “very concessionary” Chinese funding of “all major weapons purchases” will be forthcoming, he added.

Military sources told Defense News that China offered a government-to-government loan for an eventual order of the jet, and is willing to accept partial payment in beef and other commodities produced by Argentina.

“If China wants to upend the strategic balance in Latin America with the eager help of Argentina and others who will fight with her, China is going to have to subsidize the weapons purchases to start those events,” Fisher said.

Usman Ansari is the Pakistan correspondent for Defense News.

José Higuera is a Latin America correspondent for Defense News.

伊斯兰堡和智利圣地亚哥——阿根廷联合参谋长近期访问巴基斯坦，引发外界猜测，在阿根廷对JF-17战斗机表现出十余年的兴趣之后，双方可能即将达成协议。但尽管中国愿意为采购项目提供资金支持，目前尚不清楚是否取得了任何重大进展。

6月14日至15日，胡安·马丁·帕莱奥将军在伊斯兰堡会见了多位军方和政府官员，其中包括巴基斯坦空军司令扎希尔·艾哈迈德·巴贝尔·西杜空军上将和国防生产部长穆罕默德·伊斯拉尔·塔林。

虽然帕莱奥是阿根廷最高级别的军官，但他并非新型战斗机选择的关键决策者。这项职责属于空军司令哈维尔·伊萨克将军。

今年5月，一个由空军飞行员和技术人员组成的代表团在中国对JF-17战斗机进行了评估，评估内容包括全面的技术评估、模拟器使用和评估飞行。在最近一次访问巴基斯坦期间，官员们在访问巴基斯坦国防生产部时讨论了国防物资生产方面的合作。

国防部、国防出口促进组织和阿根廷当地大使馆均未回应有关提供更多信息的请求。

然而，阿根廷消息人士告诉《防务新闻》，阿根廷官员曾讨论过在该国组装FC-1（JF-17的出口型）的可能性，零部件将由中国和巴基斯坦提供，部分零部件则在阿根廷本地生产。由于担心工作保障，这些军官和政府官员要求匿名，他们表示，阿根廷最终希望能够对其FC-1飞机进行重大改装。

领导阿根廷智库 CRIES 的安德烈·塞尔宾·蓬特（Andrei Serbin Pont）曾担任该国战略事务秘书处的顾问，他并不认为帕莱奥的访问意味着 JF-17 雷电战斗机的交易即将达成。

“以我的经验来看，在阿根廷国防领域，在合同签署且阿根廷实际开始付款之前，任何事情都不能定论，”他说道，尤其考虑到该国持续的经济危机“相当严重，储备金已降至危险的低位，并存在违约的可能性”。

政府也不太可能在没有政治利益的情况下进行大规模国防投资；距离选举还有一年时间，执政党没有足够的时间来“从任何成功的军事采购中获得政治资本”。

塞尔宾·蓬特解释说，政府倾向于按国籍平衡供应商的做法也可能阻碍 JF-17 的采购工作，因为它更愿意“与中国和美国保持一定程度的等距，希望不要损害两国关系”。

阿根廷陆军目前正在考虑采购中国北方工业集团有限公司（简称北方工业公司）生产的八轮驱动装甲战车。他表示，如果阿根廷陆军最终选择这款战车，“这可能会降低空军采购JF-17战斗机的可能性，反之亦然。”

为什么选择JF-17？

自2015年最后一架幻影战机退役以来，阿根廷空军一直缺乏高性能超音速截击机。其目前的作战序列至少包括10架A-4战斗轰炸机，此外还有武装的IA-63潘帕喷气式教练机作为补充。

据国际战略研究所（ISS）称，2021年9月，阿根廷国防部拨款6.64亿美元用于采购12架战斗机。此前，阿根廷已收到俄罗斯提供的米格-29和米格-35“支点”战斗机，以及中国和巴基斯坦提供的JF-17战斗机。这家总部位于伦敦的智库在其最新发布的《军事平衡》报告中写道：“近年来，阿根廷从其他渠道采购飞机的计划屡屡受挫，据报道，这是由于英国施加的压力。”

美国智库国际评估与战略中心高级研究员理查德·费舍尔表示，阿根廷很可能正在考虑JF-17 Block III型战斗机，该型战斗机目前正在为巴基斯坦生产。

Block III型配备了有源相控阵雷达以及PL-15远程空空导弹和超音速反舰导弹等先进武器。因此，费舍尔表示，该型号将“在与英国F-35B和台风战斗机的竞争中最具优势”，而且西方和俄罗斯的子系统和部件可以轻松替换为中国版本，从而有可能消除制裁的威胁。

他说：“阿根廷似乎在寻求以最低的支出获得最佳的性能”，这对JF-17来说是个好兆头。这款战机正与丹麦提供的十几架剩余的F-16A/B MLU战斗机展开竞争。

根据几位阿根廷军方和政府官员的表态，阿根廷有意在火地岛省的里奥格兰德部署未来的拦截机，以保卫该国最南端。其他可能的部署地点包括布宜诺斯艾利斯省的坦迪尔、圣菲省的雷孔基斯塔以及圣路易斯省的维拉雷诺兹。

当被问及该型战机是否能满足作战需求时，塞尔宾·庞特表示，空军实际上已经别无选择。“因此，即使与市场上其他第四代和第四代半战斗机相比存在一些局限性，JF-17 对阿根廷空军来说也是一种升级。”

集结和资金

费舍尔指出阿根廷希望在本地生产 JF-17，并质疑“巴基斯坦是否会批准并为阿根廷的竞争性联合生产能力做出贡献”，因为这个南美国家希望成为“区域战斗机供应商，并将 JF-17 作为其主要产品”。

目前，巴基斯坦航空工业公司在 JF-17 项目中拥有 58% 的工作份额，这意味着即使是中国合作伙伴成都飞机工业集团出口到缅甸的飞机，也有一部分是在巴基斯坦制造的，最终由该公司进行组装。

尽管巴基斯坦的飞机制造厂会因阿根廷的生产而损失一些订单，但它仍将获得版税。而且，在零部件运往阿根廷之前，这家航空专家在当地组装的飞机仍将获得与之前相同的零部件份额。

飞机的最终组装和零部件生产可能会在科尔多瓦的阿根廷“圣马丁准将”飞机制造厂进行，但这项工作很可能需要分布在全国各地的其他分包商参与。发动机和子部件的维护中心可能会在同样位于科尔多瓦的空军里奥夸尔托物资区设立。

该计划还有可能涉及 INVAP，这是一家位于巴塔哥尼亚地区巴里洛切的企业，专门从事雷达和光电技术的研发，并有能力开发本土系统或改造外国系统以集成到飞机上。

费舍尔表示，十年前巴基斯坦对阿根廷的联合生产计划“犹豫不决”，但帕莱奥的访问“强烈表明，未来阿根廷采购 JF-17 将会得到巴基斯坦的全力合作，并可能参与联合生产协议”。

他还补充说，中国支持的本地组装和生产“将为乌拉圭、秘鲁、厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚、委内瑞拉，或许还有古巴，提供政治动力，促使它们考虑这款低成本战斗机”。

费舍尔认为这将有助于中国实现其地区野心，并指出中国曾在“2014 年至 2015 年左右”向阿根廷提供性能更强大的 F-10C 火鸟战斗机。然而，他指出，“这似乎太贵了”。

他补充说，对于价格更实惠的JF-17来说，这不太可能是个问题，因为中国将为“所有主要武器采购”提供“非常优惠的”资金。

军事消息人士告诉《防务新闻》，中国为最终订购该型战机提供政府间贷款，并愿意接受阿根廷生产的牛肉和其他商品的部分付款。

费舍尔说：“如果中国想要在阿根廷和其他愿意与它并肩作战的国家的积极帮助下颠覆拉丁美洲的战略平衡，中国就必须补贴武器采购，才能发动这些事件。”

乌斯曼·安萨里是《防务新闻》驻巴基斯坦记者。

何塞·伊格拉是《防务新闻》拉丁美洲记者。