Hawaii braces for major Hurricane Lowell, its 3rd storm threat in a month

Hawaii is under a state of emergency with powerful Hurricane Lowell set to bear down on its western islands Monday.

It’s the third storm in as many weeks to threaten the state, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season.

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Just how bad the hurricane gets for the island chain hinges on how close it tracks to its westernmost islands of Niihau and Kauai early next week.

A shift of less than 100 miles east of its current forecast track would mean more direct impacts from a potential Category 3 hurricane. Dangerously rough seas, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely, especially for the western islands, even if that shift doesn’t happen.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Thursday to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units.

“Our state is still recovering from Lala, and we are not waiting for another storm to get close before preparing,” Green said in a news release.

In mid-August, Hurricane Lala deluged eastern Hawaii’s Big Island with feet of rain, triggering severe flooding. Tropical Storm Moke came onto the scene not long after. It delivered some rain to the Big Island in late August, but as a much weaker storm, the impacts were less significant.

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Two storms in two weeks: El Niño has taken down Hawaii’s hurricane force field

Now, all eyes turn to Lowell, which was a Category 3 hurricane located more than 500 miles south of Hawaii as of early Friday morning, local time.

Lowell — which was briefly a Category 5 hurricane on Wednesday — is currently tracking west but is forecast to take a sharp turn to the north this weekend. It’s a track eerily similar to that of 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains the state’s worst storm on record.

An area of low pressure located high in the atmosphere well north of Hawaii is expected to interact with Lowell and pull the hurricane north. It’s an atmospheric process a bit like grabbing a stuffed animal in a claw machine.

But exactly when this interaction happens and how much grip the low pressure has will determine exactly when the sharp turn takes place and how close Lowell gets to Hawaii.

The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast brings Lowell’s center about 160 miles west of Niihau or 190 miles west of Kauai later Monday afternoon through Monday night. But the forecasters have less confidence than normal in that exact track this far out, before it starts making its turn north.

Groups of computer forecast models called ensembles are still showing a wide range of outcomes for Lowell’s closest approach. They range from a potential devastating landfall on Kauai or Oahu to a track more than 500 miles west of Niihau that would mean little more than slightly rougher surf and maybe a few showers.

Confidence in the hurricane’s track will increase after it completes its sharp turn this weekend.

Given this, it’s hard to say with any certainty how much wind and rain the islands will get, but it’s clear that rough surf, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely starting as early as this weekend.

Lowell will be strong enough to significantly churn up the ocean outward from its center, stacking up big waves and sending more water than usual at Hawaii’s southern shores. Tides will also be near their highest levels of the month, raising the floor on any flood threats.

Major coastal flooding is possible in Kauai, the National Weather Service warned, with significant coastal flooding also possible for Oahu.

夏威夷州宣布进入紧急状态，威力强大的飓风洛厄尔将于周一袭击其西部岛屿。

这是短短几周内威胁该州的第三场风暴，厄尔尼诺现象加剧了太平洋飓风季的强度。

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飓风对该岛链的影响程度取决于下周初它与最西端的尼豪岛和考艾岛的距离。

如果飓风路径向东偏移不到100英里，就意味着潜在的3级飓风将带来更直接的影响。即使路径没有偏移，也可能出现危险的巨浪、沿海洪水和离岸流，尤其对西部岛屿而言更是如此。

夏威夷州州长乔什·格林周四宣布全州进入紧急状态，以释放州资源并启动夏威夷国民警卫队。

格林在一份新闻稿中表示：“我们州仍在从拉拉飓风中恢复，我们不会等到另一场风暴临近才开始做准备。”

8月中旬，飓风拉拉给夏威夷大岛东部带来了数英尺的降雨，引发了严重的洪灾。不久之后，热带风暴莫克也登陆了该地区。8月下旬，莫克给大岛带来了一些降雨，但由于其强度远弱于拉拉，因此造成的影响也较小。

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两周内遭遇两场风暴：厄尔尼诺现象削弱了夏威夷的飓风强度。

现在，所有人的目光都转向了洛厄尔飓风，截至当地时间周五清晨，该飓风已升级为 3 级飓风，位于夏威夷以南 500 多英里处。

洛厄尔飓风周三曾短暂达到五级飓风强度，目前正向西移动，但预计本周末将急转北上。其移动路径与1992年的伊尼基飓风惊人地相似，伊尼基飓风以四级飓风的强度登陆考艾岛，至今仍是该州有记录以来最严重的飓风。

位于夏威夷以北高空的低压区预计将与洛厄尔飓风相互作用，并将其向北拉扯。这有点像从抓娃娃机里抓取毛绒玩具。

但这种相互作用究竟何时发生，以及低气压的抓地力有多​​大，将决定急转弯究竟何时发生，以及洛厄尔距离夏威夷有多近。

美国国家飓风中心的官方预测显示，洛厄尔飓风中心将于周一下午晚些时候至周一晚上位于尼豪岛以西约160英里（约257公里）或考艾岛以西约190英里（约306公里）处。但预报员对目前这个预测路径的准确性不如往常那么有把握，因为飓风在转向北行之前，其路径可能会发生偏移。

被称为集合预报的计算机预测模型组仍然显示，洛厄尔飓风最接近时可能出现多种不同的结果。这些结果包括：飓风可能在考艾岛或瓦胡岛造成毁灭性登陆，也可能位于尼豪岛以西500多英里处，届时只会带来略微汹涌的海浪和零星阵雨。

飓风在本周末完成急转弯后，人们对飓风路径的信心将会增强。

鉴于此，很难确定这些岛屿会遭遇多大的风雨，但很明显，巨浪、沿海洪水和离岸流很可能最早在本周末就开始出现。

洛厄尔飓风强度足以显著搅动其中心向外扩散的海面，形成巨浪，并向夏威夷南部海岸输送比往常更多的海水。潮汐也将接近本月最高水位，从而加剧洪水威胁。

美国国家气象局警告称，考艾岛可能出现严重的沿海洪水，瓦胡岛也可能出现严重的沿海洪水。