Ukraine war fatigue fuels defense-spending downgrade plan in Italy

ROME — Italian military planners risk losing out on €8 billion ($9 billion) in funding as government and opposition parties seek to cut both defense spending and support for Ukraine.

The plans to limit spending emerged this week as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni continues to be squeezed between NATO spending targets and voter opposition to spending tax payers’ cash on arms not hospitals.

The possible €8 billion shortfall is tied up with Italy’s hot-and-cold approach to a European Union scheme to allow states to exempt a quantity of defense spending from their calculations of annual deficit spending over a number of years.

The so-called National Escape Clause would allow EU states to rearm while not breaking EU deficit rules.

After Meloni’s government promoted the scheme, it then appeared less enthusiastic when the EU finally approved it before Meloni announced this year she would use the extra cash not only for defense but also to cover Italy’s soaring fuel costs.

That was due to generate a defense windfall of between €21 billion and €22 billion thanks to NEC. But the calculation changed on Thursday at a Cabinet meeting when deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini succeeded in pushing the amount down to around €14 billion, a drop of up to €8 billion.

“It’s yet to be made definite but the reduction was agreed,” a government source told Defense News.

Salvini leads the League party which is part of Meloni’s governing coalition and is battling defense spending hikes, opposing sending military support to Ukraine and wants a deal with Moscow to end the conflict in the country.

That contrasts with Meloni’s firm backing for Kyiv and support for Europe’s hardline opposition to Moscow, but she is in a minority in Italian politics. To her right, a new challenger Roberto Vannacci is calling for an end to sanctions on Russia, while among Italy’s left-wing opposition parties, the Five Star party has blamed the Ukraine conflict on a “war mongering Europe.”

A poll of Five Star’s members this month found over 90% opposed European rearmament and believed sending arms to Ukraine was to blame for prolonging the war.

Despite a groundswell of opposition to defense spending in Italy, Meloni has meanwhile committed to NATO’s spending target of 5% of GDP, and she has claimed Italy has reached 2.8% this year, including spending on domestic security.

But details are scant: this year’s budget breakdown has yet to be published.

Meanwhile, Rome said in August it would request €8 billion euros in cheap loans from the European Union’s SAFE defense funding program, down from its original intention to ask for €14.9 billion euros in loans.

In a parliamentary hearing on Sept. 23, the CEO of Italian defense giant Leonardo said he was a big fan of SAFE loans, since they guaranteed cash for defense programs with few complications.

“I believe SAFE is the first, real useful measure that Europe has come up with,” said Lorenzo Mariani.

“The money has never been much and it’s been complicated. Now SAFE is moving a lot of money and using a system which we believe is not complex like other European schemes have been,” he added.

“Portugal is buying FREMM frigates built by Leonardo and Fincantieri thanks to SAFE funds,” he said.

Mariani said he had talked up the virtues of SAFE loans to the Meloni government.

“SAFE is very positive. The use of it does not depend on me. I have made proposals which I hope are accepted by the government,” he said.

One analyst said Rome needed to make up its mind about spending.

“The government needs to take important decisions about NEC and SAFE loans which were granted to all member states after years of requests by Italian governments,” said Alessandro Marrone, who heads the Defence Security and Space Programme at Rome think tank IAI.

“The government should have implemented its decision by now to enable better planning by the Italian defense ministry. It’s urgent. This is not just about NATO targets but about filling gaps left in Europe next year by U.S. pull-outs and now following through on Italy’s desire to send naval vessels to defend the Red Sea.”

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——由于政府和反对党寻求削减国防开支和对乌克兰的支持，意大利军事策划人员可能面临损失 80 亿欧元（90 亿美元）资金的风险。

本周，限制开支的计划浮出水面，意大利总理乔治娅·梅洛尼继续在北约开支目标和选民反对将纳税人的钱用于武器而不是医院之间左右为难。

可能出现的 80 亿欧元资金缺口与意大利对欧盟一项允许成员国在数年内将一定数量的国防开支从年度赤字支出计算中豁免的计划的冷淡态度有关。

所谓的“国家豁免条款”将允许欧盟成员国在不违反欧盟赤字规则的情况下重新武装自己。

梅洛尼政府大力推广该计划后，欧盟最终批准该计划时，政府的热情似乎有所下降。今年，梅洛尼宣布，她将把这笔额外的资金不仅用于国防，还要用于支付意大利不断上涨的燃料成本。

原本预计NEC将为国防带来210亿至220亿欧元的意外之财。但周四的内阁会议上，副总理马泰奥·萨尔维尼成功地将金额下调至约140亿欧元，减少了高达80亿欧元。

一位政府消息人士告诉《防务新闻》：“虽然尚未最终确定，但削减方案已经达成一致。”

萨尔维尼领导的联盟党是梅洛尼执政联盟的一部分，该党反对增加国防开支，反对向乌克兰提供军事支持，并希望与莫斯科达成协议以结束该国的冲突。

这与梅洛尼坚定支持基辅以及支持欧洲强硬的反莫斯科立场形成鲜明对比，但她在意大利政坛属于少数派。在她右翼，新挑战者罗伯托·瓦纳奇呼吁结束对俄罗斯的制裁，而在意大利左翼反对党中，五星运动党则将乌克兰冲突归咎于“好战的欧洲”。

本月五星运动成员的民意调查发现，超过 90% 的人反对欧洲重新武装，并认为向乌克兰提供武器是延长战争的原因。

尽管意大利国内对国防开支存在强烈的反对声浪，但梅洛尼仍承诺达到北约规定的占国内生产总值 5% 的国防开支目标，并声称意大利今年已达到 2.8% 的国防开支，其中包括国内安全方面的支出。

但细节尚不清楚：今年的预算明细尚未公布。

与此同时，罗马方面在 8 月份表示，将向欧盟的 SAFE 国防融资计划申请 80 亿欧元的低息贷款，低于最初申请 149 亿欧元贷款的计划。

在 9 月 23 日的一次议会听证会上，意大利国防巨头莱昂纳多公司的首席执行官表示，他非常支持 SAFE 贷款，因为这种贷款可以担保国防项目的资金，而且几乎没有任何复杂情况。

“我认为 SAFE 是欧洲提出的第一个真正有用的措施，”洛伦佐·马里亚尼说。

“资金规模一直不大，而且运作方式也比较复杂。现在，SAFE 系统转移的资金量很大，而且我们认为它不像其他欧洲方案那样复杂，”他补充道。

他说：“葡萄牙正在利用SAFE基金购买由莱昂纳多和芬坎蒂尼建造的FREMM护卫舰。”

马里亚尼表示，他曾向梅洛尼政府大力宣传SAFE贷款的优点。

“SAFE计划非常积极。它的使用并不取决于我。我已经提出了一些建议，希望政府能够采纳，”他说。

一位分析人士表示，罗马需要就支出问题做出决定。

“政府需要就NEC和SAFE贷款做出重要决定，这些贷款是在意大利政府多年请求后授予所有成员国的，”罗马智库IAI国防安全与空间项目负责人亚历山德罗·马罗内说。

“政府现在就应该落实这项决定，以便意大利国防部能够更好地进行规划。这很紧急。这不仅关乎北约目标，还关乎填补美国明年撤军后在欧洲留下的空白，以及落实意大利派遣海军舰艇保卫红海的愿望。”

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。