Wall Street is booming. Surging yields could shake things up

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Wall Street rolled into 2026 on a hot streak and continued with a booming first half.

Profits surged, fueled by massive spending on artificial intelligence, elevated trading activity in a volatile market and dealmaking that has benefited from a relaxed regulatory environment under the Trump administration.

Wall Street hauled in $45.9 billion in profits in the first half of the year, up 51% from the same period a year ago, according to the New York State Comptroller’s latest report on the securities industry in New York City.

At the current pace of growth, the industry’s profits in 2026 could exceed $90 billion for the full year — smashing through previous records and outpacing the inflation-adjusted record set in 2009.

The boon for traders and bankers comes as AI investment is fueling US economic growth even as consumer sentiment hovers at historic lows due to concerns about the cost of living, from rising energy prices to stubborn food inflation.

“Despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the industry has remained resilient,” Thomas P. DiNapoli, New York State Comptroller and author of the report, said in a statement.

The good times are expected to keep rolling, but risks remain. The financial industry has a lingering obstacle to deal with: rising interest rates.

The key 10-year Treasury yield, which sets interest rates across the economy, hit 5.35% on Monday — its highest level since 2002.

The recent rise in interest rates “may dampen profitability” if dealmaking slows down or firms’ interest liabilities rise significantly, DiNapoli noted.

The surge in bond yields is pushing up the cost of borrowing from mortgages to auto loans, which can weigh on economic activity. Higher yields can also raise risks for the stock market and put a chill on the hot IPO and dealmaking market.

“Rising yields for bonds issued by the U.S. and other governments in recent weeks are another concerning indicator for investors,” DiNapoli wrote in the report.

The New York City comptroller’s office had forecasted in May that Wall Street would earn $45.3 billion in profits for the entire year — a figure that has already been surpassed.

The surge in profits has been driven by robust trading in stocks, bonds and currencies, fees from supervising and advising clients’ investments, underwriting initial public offerings and a pickup in mergers and acquisitions.

“Investment in AI companies continues to drive the market,” DiNapoli wrote. AI-related venture capital spending hit $407 billion in the first half of the year, more than 50% higher than the annual total of $264 billion in 2025, the report found.

The AI boom, a pickup in M&A and a series of IPOs have created a sweet backdrop for earnings. Revenues from underwriting activities — like IPOs — rose 68% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, the report found. Anthropic, a powerhouse AI company that could be valued at $2 trillion, is expected to go public this year, creating another major opportunity for Wall Street banks to haul in fees from underwriting and trading activity.

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Wall Street’s fortunes have also been aided by a business-friendly administration in the White House, DiNapoli said.

The boosts to companies’ bottom lines are reflected in growing salaries: The average annual salary (including bonuses) in New York City’s securities industry rose 11.1% to $561,770 in 2025. The bonus pool last year reached $49.2 billion, the report found, equivalent to an average bonus of $246,900 per employee, up 6% from the previous year.

Wall Street’s windfall is also a boon for New York State and City tax revenues. The industry’s contribution to New York City tax collections rose 15.8% in the 2026 fiscal year compared to the prior year. “Commensurate with record industry profitability, tax collections related to securities continue to reach new levels,” DiNapoli wrote in the report.

Still, bond market volatility has picked up in recent weeks. The rise in interest rates could put pressure on Wall Street firms’ trading returns, while also dampening the outlook for the IPO market and dealmaking, as well as the consumer. Wall Street is at the center of the AI boom, but is also exposed to any downturn or fading enthusiasm.

“While the industry continues to see strong profits, there are growing concerns regarding ongoing geopolitical conflicts, inflation and interest rates, the outsized contributions of the burgeoning AI sector and the deregulatory push of the current administration,” DiNapoli wrote.

He added that “the potential for an industry downturn presents an increasing risk to public finances and the broader regional economy.”

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华尔街在2026年伊始便保持强劲势头，上半年也继续蓬勃发展。

利润飙升，这得益于人工智能领域的巨额支出、动荡市场中交易活动的增加，以及特朗普政府宽松的监管环境带来的交易繁荣。

根据纽约州审计长最新发布的纽约市证券行业报告，华尔街今年上半年盈利 459 亿美元，比去年同期增长 51%。

按照目前的增长速度，到 2026 年，该行业的全年利润可能超过 900 亿美元——打破以前的记录，并超过 2009 年创下的经通胀调整后的记录。

尽管消费者信心因对生活成本的担忧（从能源价格上涨到持续的食品通胀）而徘徊在历史低位，但人工智能投资正在推动美国经济增长，这对交易员和银行家来说无疑是个好消息。

“尽管地缘政治紧张和经济不确定，但该行业仍然保持了韧性，”纽约州审计长兼该报告的作者托马斯·P·迪纳波利在一份声明中表示。

预计好势头将持续，但风险依然存在。金融业仍面临一个长期存在的挑战：利率上升。

周一，决定整个经济体利率的关键10年期美国国债收益率达到5.35%，创下2002年以来的最高水平。

迪纳波利指出，如果交易放缓或公司利息负债大幅增加，近期利率上升“可能会抑制盈利能力”。

债券收益率飙升推高了从抵押贷款到汽车贷款等各类借贷成本，这可能会对经济活动造成压力。更高的收益率还会增加股市风险，并给火热的IPO和并购市场降温。

迪纳波利在报告中写道：“近几周来，美国和其他国家政府发行的债券收益率不断上升，这对投资者来说是另一个令人担忧的迹象。”

纽约市审计长办公室在 5 月份预测，华尔街全年利润将达到 453 亿美元——而这一数字已经被超过了。

利润激增主要得益于股票、债券和货币交易的强劲增长，以及监督和指导客户投资、承销首次公开募股和并购活动增加所产生的费用。

迪纳波利写道：“对人工智能公司的投资持续推动市场发展。”报告发现，今年上半年与人工智能相关的风险投资支出达到4070亿美元，比2025年全年2640亿美元的总额高出50%以上。

人工智能的蓬勃发展、并购活动的增加以及一系列IPO的上市，为企业盈利创造了有利条件。报告显示，2026年上半年，承销活动（例如IPO）的收入同比增长了68%。人工智能巨头Anthropic的估值可能高达2万亿美元，预计将于今年上市，这将为华尔街银行从承销和交易活动中赚取更多费用创造又一个绝佳机会。

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迪纳波利表示，华尔街的繁荣也得益于白宫亲商的政府政策。

公司利润的增长反映在不断上涨的薪资上：纽约市证券行业的平均年薪（包括奖金）在2025年上涨了11.1%，达到561,770美元。报告发现，去年奖金总额达到492亿美元，相当于每位员工平均获得246,900美元的奖金，比上一年增长了6%。

华尔街的意外之财也为纽约州和纽约市的税收带来了福音。2026财年，证券业对纽约市税收的贡献比上一年增长了15.8%。迪纳波利在报告中写道：“与创纪录的行业盈利能力相符，证券相关税收持续攀升至新高。”

尽管如此，债券市场近几周波动性有所加剧。利率上升可能会给华尔街公司的交易回报带来压力，同时也会抑制IPO市场、并购交易以及消费者的前景。华尔街是人工智能繁荣的中心，但也容易受到任何经济衰退或市场热情消退的影响。

“尽管该行业继续获得强劲的利润，但人们越来越担心持续的地缘政治冲突、通货膨胀和利率、蓬勃发展的人工智能行业的巨大贡献以及现任政府的放松管制举措，”迪纳波利写道。

他还补充说，“行业衰退的可能性对公共财政和更广泛的区域经济构成越来越大的风险。”