Thailand still struggles economically even with revised World Bank GDP growth for 2026 coming at 2%

October 8, 2026 at 2:18 pm

in Economy , Living , Media , Politics , Thailand

Thailand’s final fiscal 2025 accounts expose a staggering ฿898.8 billion deficit, up 20.6%, as the World Bank lifts its 2026 growth forecast to a meagre 2%. Government spending raced ahead of revenue, all three major tax departments missed targets, and public debt reached 65.08% of GDP, nearing the 70% ceiling. Meanwhile, the AI export boom offers limited relief as Vietnam races ahead with projected growth of 7.4%. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanpraphas faces mounting fiscal pressure amid proposals for higher taxes, including VAT. Now, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warns of soaring global debt, energy shocks and risks surrounding the AI boom. Thailand’s growth outlook has improved, but its public finances tell a far grimmer story.

Thailand’s 2025 deficit hits ฿898.8bn as World Bank VP Carlos Felipe Jaramillo highlights AI growth. GDP forecast rises to 2% for 2026, far behind Vietnam’s 7.4%. ( Source: World Bank )

The World Bank has upgraded Thailand’s economic growth forecast to a meagre 2% for 2026. However, the improvement comes amid weakening public finances, disappointing tax collections and rapidly rising government expenditure.

Final figures for fiscal 2025 show a budget deficit approaching ฿900 billion, up more than 20%. Excise receipts missed their target by almost 12%, while government spending increased more than six times faster than revenue. Meanwhile, public debt reached 65.08% of GDP, moving closer to the statutory 70% ceiling. The kingdom faces growing fiscal pressures despite stronger exports linked to the global artificial intelligence boom.

The World Bank announced its revised forecast on Tuesday, October 6. It raised Thailand’s projected GDP growth from 1.3% to 2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points.

Thailand’s upgraded 2% growth forecast still leaves the kingdom far behind its regional neighbours

The improvement reflects stronger demand for electronics and high-technology products used in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Nevertheless, the kingdom remains among the region’s slowest-growing major economies. The bank also upgraded its East Asia and Pacific growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.5%.

In contrast, Vietnam received a larger upward revision of 1.1 percentage points, lifting projected growth to 7.4%. Malaysia’s forecast increased to 5.1%, while China is expected to expand by 4.4%.

Consequently, Thailand’s revised projection remains less than half the regional average. Vietnam is expected to grow more than three times as quickly. The figures highlight the widening differences in economic performance across Southeast Asia.

The World Bank attributed much of the regional improvement to rising international demand for AI-related products. These include electronics, semiconductors and computer components required for data centres and advanced computing infrastructure.

Notably, AI-related goods accounted for more than 70% of export growth across Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. However, the bank found that trade growth outside the technology sector remained weak or negative across several economies.

World Bank warns AI export boom has yet to deliver wider economic gains and stronger domestic demand

World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific Carlos Felipe Jaramillo highlighted the challenge of extending these gains. “The challenge now is to turn the region’s strength in producing AI-related goods into widespread AI adoption that boosts productivity and creates more and better jobs for millions of people.”

Despite stronger technology exports, Thailand continues to face weak domestic demand, sluggish productivity and limited investment. Household purchasing power remains constrained by high indebtedness, while the ageing population presents additional long-term economic difficulties.

Furthermore, the World Bank identified energy costs and climate-related disruptions as continuing risks. Its latest assessment therefore raises Thailand’s headline growth projection without indicating a comparable recovery across the wider domestic economy.

The upgraded forecast coincides with the release of final government accounts for fiscal 2025. These figures reveal a substantial deterioration in the kingdom’s budgetary position. Government revenue reached ฿2.824 trillion during the financial year ending September 30, 2025. This represented an annual increase of approximately 1%. However, expenditure climbed 5.1% to ฿3.723 trillion, substantially outpacing the growth in government income.

Thailand’s fiscal deficit surges 20.6% to ฿898.8 billion as spending outstrips government revenue

As a result, Thailand recorded a budgetary deficit of ฿898.8 billion, compared with ฿745.5 billion in fiscal 2024. The shortfall increased by approximately ฿153.3 billion, equivalent to 20.6%. Moreover, government spending rose by ฿180.7 billion, while revenue increased by only ฿27.4 billion.

Expenditure growth therefore exceeded revenue growth more than sixfold. The imbalance left a substantially larger gap between the money collected by the government and its spending commitments.

The borrowing figures reveal the scale of the shortfall. During fiscal 2025, the government borrowed ฿922.7 billion to finance its operations. Meanwhile, the cash deficit before borrowing, after non-budgetary transactions, reached ฿856.5 billion. These figures accompanied weak tax collection performance across the kingdom’s three principal revenue departments. Although overall receipts increased year-on-year, all three departments failed to meet their annual targets.

Together, the Revenue, Excise and Customs departments collected ฿2.992 trillion during fiscal 2025. This represented growth of 2.8% over the previous financial year. Nevertheless, collections missed official targets by ฿112.2 billion, equivalent to 3.6%. The shortfall was concentrated particularly heavily in excise taxation, where revenue proved substantially weaker than expected.

The Excise Department collected ฿537.5 billion, missing its annual target by ฿72.2 billion, or 11.8%. Remarkably, this accounted for almost two-thirds of the combined shortfall across the three departments.

Weak automobile sales and electric vehicle incentives drive major shortfalls in Thailand’s tax receipts

The Finance Ministry identified disappointing automobile tax receipts as a major contributing factor. Thailand’s vehicle industry has faced subdued domestic demand and changing consumer purchasing patterns. In addition, government incentives supporting electric vehicles have reduced certain excise collections.

The decline against target is significant because automobile taxation forms an important component of excise revenue. Government measures encouraging electric vehicle adoption have also changed the composition of tax receipts from the industry.

Meanwhile, weakness in conventional vehicle demand has affected collections from internal-combustion models. The resulting revenue shortfall contributed heavily to the government’s overall failure to meet its fiscal targets.

Separately, the Revenue Department collected ฿2.335 trillion, approximately 3% more than during fiscal 2024. However, its receipts remained ฿37 billion, or 1.6%, below target. Corporate income tax and VAT collected on imports were among the weaker categories. These figures emerged against a background of subdued domestic consumption and difficult conditions for many businesses.

The Customs Department also reported disappointing collections. Its revenue reached ฿119.1 billion, falling ฿3.1 billion, or 2.5%, below expectations. The Finance Ministry identified the stronger baht, trade liberalisation and declining imports of conventional vehicles as contributing factors.

Overall, net government revenue missed its budget target by ฿64.3 billion, equivalent to 2.2%. Additional income from other government agencies partly offset the shortfalls recorded by the principal tax departments.

Government revenue grows but fails to keep pace with spending as debt and ageing costs increase

Importantly, the figures do not show an outright collapse in total tax revenue. Government income increased during fiscal 2025, but its growth remained substantially below expenditure growth. The distinction is important. Tax collections failed to meet government expectations while spending commitments continued to expand. Consequently, the budget deficit widened sharply despite positive annual revenue growth.

The World Bank’s February 2026 assessment identified increased capital expenditure as one reason for the deterioration. Government investment spending had returned towards normal levels following delays during the previous budget cycle.

Therefore, part of the expenditure increase reflected the timing of public investment rather than entirely new spending commitments. Nevertheless, the kingdom faces additional financial pressures from healthcare, pensions, elderly support and infrastructure requirements.

Thailand’s demographic position adds another dimension to its fiscal difficulties. An ageing population is increasing demand for healthcare and social protection. At the same time, a shrinking working-age population presents challenges for future income-tax collection.

The government must also continue servicing existing public debt while financing current expenditure and investment commitments. These pressures coincide with relatively weak economic growth and a narrow personal income-tax base.

By September 30, 2025, Thailand’s public debt had reached ฿12.226 trillion. This represented 65.08% of GDP, compared with the statutory debt ceiling of 70%. Furthermore, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has identified significant limitations in Thailand’s taxation system. Its 2025 economic survey estimated that approximately 90% of the labour force did not pay personal income tax.

Thailand’s narrow income tax base and informal economy expose a structural revenue gap worth billions

Many of these workers nevertheless contribute through VAT, excise duties and other indirect taxes. However, the figures demonstrate the limited reach of personal income taxation across the workforce.

Thailand also has a substantial informal economy, with many businesses operating outside conventional income-tax arrangements. Consequently, government revenue depends heavily on a relatively narrow group of income-tax payers and broader consumption-based taxation.

The World Bank has estimated that Thailand faces a structural tax gap equivalent to approximately 5.6% of GDP. This measures the difference between existing collections and revenue capacity suggested by comparable economies.

Furthermore, the bank estimates that comprehensive tax reforms could eventually raise additional revenue equivalent to 3.5 percentage points of GDP. Using an illustrative GDP of ฿18.8 trillion, this would represent approximately ฿658 billion annually.

However, that figure represents potential additional revenue following full implementation, rather than an official government forecast. The International Monetary Fund has separately examined changes to Thailand’s taxation system. These include increasing VAT from its current 7% rate towards the statutory 10% rate. According to IMF estimates, a phased increase could eventually generate additional annual revenue equivalent to approximately 1.8% of GDP.

Thailand examines income tax and corporate tax reforms as fiscal framework targets stronger collections

In parallel, reforms to personal income-tax allowances could potentially raise another 0.5% of GDP. International institutions have also examined reviewing corporate tax privileges, strengthening property taxation and improving digital tax compliance.

Thailand’s medium-term fiscal framework for 2026–2030 already includes plans to broaden the tax base and improve collection efficiency. The framework also provides for reviewing existing tax incentives and strengthening revenue mobilisation.

As part of these changes, Thailand has adopted the OECD/G20 global minimum tax framework for qualifying multinational enterprises. The 15% minimum tax arrangements began applying from the 2025 tax year. Meanwhile, the government’s fiscal objectives include containing deficits and maintaining public debt below 70% of GDP. These commitments form part of its medium-term financial planning as expenditure requirements continue to increase.

The latest figures place Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanpraphas at the centre of Thailand’s fiscal position. The kingdom recorded a budgetary deficit approaching ฿900 billion during fiscal 2025. Furthermore, tax receipts missed targets across all three principal collection departments. Public debt also moved closer to the statutory ceiling, while government expenditure increased far faster than revenue.

IMF chief warns of global debt pressures and uneven AI boom as Thailand faces widening fiscal deficit

The fiscal deterioration comes as the International Monetary Fund issues fresh warnings about global economic conditions. Speaking in Singapore on Wednesday, October 7, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva highlighted rising public debt and persistently high energy prices.

She also warned about financial risks surrounding the international artificial intelligence investment boom. Her remarks preceded the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings scheduled for Bangkok the following week.

Georgieva described two powerful forces affecting the global economy. One was the negative energy supply shock caused by conflicts in the Middle East. The other was the positive demand shock generated by rapidly expanding investment in artificial intelligence. “The combined impact of these two forces is highly uneven across the world,” she said. She also warned that the AI boom was bypassing many countries.

Meanwhile, higher energy prices are increasing inflation, interest rates and government borrowing costs. Georgieva warned that these pressures were affecting economies already carrying substantial public debt. The IMF estimates that global public debt has reached its highest level since the Second World War. Furthermore, it projects that worldwide debt will exceed 100% of GDP before 2030.

The IMF chief identified advanced economies, particularly the United States, as carrying especially heavy debt burdens. She warned that governments could no longer depend on higher economic growth alone to resolve fiscal difficulties.

Georgieva calls for fiscal consolidation and warns that disappointing AI returns could trigger a shock

Instead, she called for credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans, including upfront measures where necessary. Her comments came as governments worldwide face rising borrowing costs and additional expenditure pressures.

On another front, Georgieva identified risks surrounding the scale of global investment in artificial intelligence. Technology companies are committing substantial resources to computing infrastructure, data centres and advanced systems.

However, she warned that disappointing investment returns could trigger a far-reaching financial shock. Rising financial concentration among major AI companies has increased the importance of productivity and earnings gains.

Nevertheless, the IMF also identified considerable potential economic benefits from artificial intelligence. Its research suggests successful AI adoption could add approximately half a percentage point to annual global growth. These findings accompany the World Bank’s latest assessment of technology-driven export expansion across East Asia. However, the two institutions have also identified risks arising from the concentration of investment and economic activity.

For Thailand, the international developments coincide with substantial domestic financial pressures. The World Bank’s revised forecast relies heavily on stronger demand for AI-related exports. Meanwhile, the kingdom continues to face weak consumption, sluggish productivity and a rapidly ageing population. Its fiscal accounts reveal a widening deficit, disappointing revenue collection and substantial borrowing requirements.

Thailand trails Vietnam and Malaysia despite GDP upgrade as Finance Minister Ekniti faces fiscal strain

The contrast with neighbouring economies remains particularly striking. Vietnam is projected to grow by 7.4%, while Malaysia is expected to expand by 5.1%. China’s forecast stands at 4.4%, compared with Thailand’s revised 2%. Consequently, the kingdom remains well behind its principal regional competitors despite the upward adjustment.

For Finance Minister Ekniti, the final fiscal 2025 figures present an immediate financial challenge. Government expenditure exceeded revenue by almost ฿900 billion, while tax collections fell short of official targets.

In addition, public debt reached 65.08% of GDP, leaving limited headroom beneath the statutory ceiling. The government’s medium-term framework identifies broader taxation and stronger collection as important components of fiscal planning.

Thailand therefore enters the final quarter of 2026 with two sharply contrasting economic developments. The World Bank has raised its growth forecast as technology exports benefit from the global AI investment boom.

However, government spending continues to outpace revenue, while the tax base remains narrow. The latest fiscal accounts show a substantially larger deficit and mounting borrowing requirements. Meanwhile, even the upgraded GDP projection leaves Thailand growing at just 2%, far below the regional average.

Vietnam’s economic growth races ahead of Thailand’s putting it on track to overtake its net GDP by 2029

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Thailand’s once mighty tourism industry is failing but now faces further damage from overvalued baht

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Top Thai banker launches blistering attack on present state of the economy calling for more inclusion

Top economist warns of a stronger baht as the US economy weakens. Tourism and exports face a severe hit

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Joseph Anthony is an expat from Ireland who has lived in Thailand for the last decade. He has worked extensively in the media including editorial positions in Ireland and Thailand. He is focused on economic and business stories in Thailand as well as the expat lifestyle.

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2026年10月8日下午2:18

经济、生活、媒体、政治、泰国

泰国2025财年最终财务报告显示，该国财政赤字高达8988亿泰铢，较上年同期增长20.6%，而世界银行则将2026年经济增长预期下调至仅2%。政府支出远超收入，三大税务部门均未完成目标，公共债务占GDP的比重达到65.08%，逼近70%的上限。与此同时，人工智能出口的繁荣带来的缓解作用有限，越南经济预计将增长7.4%。泰国副总理兼财政部长埃克尼提·尼提坦帕帕斯(Ekniti Nitithanpraphas)面临着越来越大的财政压力，因为政府提议提高税收，包括增值税。如今，国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)警告称，全球债务飙升、能源冲击以及人工智能热潮都存在风险。尽管泰国经济增长前景有所改善，但其公共财政状况却远比这糟糕得多。

世界银行副行长卡洛斯·费利佩·哈拉米略强调人工智能将推动泰国经济增长，预计泰国2025年的财政赤字将达到8988亿泰铢。2026年泰国GDP增速预计仅为2%，远低于越南的7.4%。（来源：世界银行）

世界银行将泰国2026年的经济增长预期上调至仅2%。然而，这一改善是在公共财政状况恶化、税收令人失望以及政府支出迅速增长的背景下实现的。

2025财年的最终数据显示，预算赤字接近9000亿泰铢，增幅超过20%。消费税收入比目标低了近12%，而政府支出增速是收入增速的六倍多。与此同时，公共债务占GDP的比重达到65.08%，逼近70%的法定上限。尽管受全球人工智能热潮的推动，泰国出口走强，但仍面临日益增长的财政压力。

世界银行于10月6日星期二公布了修订后的预测。它将泰国的GDP增长预期从1.3%上调至2%，提高了0.7个百分点。

泰国上调后的2%经济增长预期仍然使其远远落后于其区域邻国。

这一改善反映出市场对人工智能基础设施所用电子产品和高科技产品的需求更加强劲。尽管如此，沙特阿拉伯仍然是该地区增长最慢的主要经济体之一。该银行还将东亚和太平洋地区的经济增长预期从4.2%上调至4.5%。

相比之下，越南的经济预期上调幅度更大，达到1.1个百分点，预计增长至7.4%。马来西亚的预期增长至5.1%，而中国预计将增长4.4%。

因此，泰国的修正后经济增长预期仍不到区域平均水平的一半。越南的经济增长速度预计将是泰国的三倍以上。这些数据凸显了东南亚各国经济表现日益扩大的差距。

世界银行将该地区的大部分改善归功于国际市场对人工智能相关产品需求的增长。这些产品包括数据中心和先进计算基础设施所需的电子产品、半导体和计算机组件。

值得注意的是，在泰国、马来西亚、越南和菲律宾，人工智能相关产品占出口增长的70%以上。然而，世界银行发现，在一些经济体中，科技行业以外的贸易增长依然疲软或出现负增长。

世界银行警告称，人工智能出口热潮尚未带来更广泛的经济效益和更强劲的国内需求。

世界银行东亚及太平洋地区副行长卡洛斯·费利佩·哈拉米略强调了巩固这些成果所面临的挑战。“现在的挑战是如何将该地区在人工智能相关产品生产方面的优势转化为人工智能的广泛应用，从而提高生产力，并为数百万人创造更多更好的就业机会。”

尽管技术出口强劲增长，泰国仍面临国内需求疲软、生产力低下和投资有限等问题。高负债制约着家庭购买力，而人口老龄化也带来了额外的长期经济挑战。

此外，世界银行指出能源成本和气候相关干扰仍然是持续存在的风险。因此，其最新评估提高了泰国经济增长预期，但并未表明泰国整体经济将出现类似的复苏。

此次上调后的预测与2025财年最终政府账目的发布同时进行。这些数据表明，泰国的预算状况大幅恶化。截至2025年9月30日的财年，政府收入达到2.824万亿泰铢，同比增长约1%。然而，支出却增长了5.1%，达到3.723万亿泰铢，远超政府收入的增长。

由于支出超过政府收入，泰国财政赤字飙升20.6%，达到8988亿泰铢。

因此，泰国2024财年的预算赤字为8988亿泰铢，而2024财年为7455亿泰铢。赤字增加了约1533亿泰铢，相当于20.6%。此外，政府支出增加了1807亿泰铢，而收入仅增加了274亿泰铢。

因此，支出增长超过收入增长六倍以上。这种失衡导致政府收入与其支出承诺之间出现更大的缺口。

借款数据揭示了资金缺口的规模。2025财年，政府借款9227亿泰铢用于日常运营。与此同时，扣除非预算交易后，未计入借款的现金赤字高达8565亿泰铢。这些数据与泰国三大主要税收部门疲软的税收征管业绩相吻合。尽管总体税收收入同比增长，但所有三个部门均未能完成年度目标。

2025财年，税务、消费税和海关部门共征收税款2.992万亿泰铢，较上一财年增长2.8%。然而，实际税收比官方目标少了1122亿泰铢，相当于3.6%。税收缺口主要集中在消费税方面，该项税收收入远低于预期。

税务部门征收了5375亿泰铢，比年度目标少了722亿泰铢，即11.8%。值得注意的是，这几乎占三个部门总缺口的三分之二。

汽车销量疲软和电动汽车激励措施导致泰国税收大幅下降。

财政部指出，汽车税收收入令人失望是造成这一现象的主要原因之一。泰国汽车行业面临着国内需求疲软和消费者购买模式转变的双重挑战。此外，政府对电动汽车的扶持政策也减少了部分消费税的征收。

与目标相比，此次下降幅度较大，因为汽车税收是消费税收入的重要组成部分。政府鼓励推广电动汽车的措施也改变了该行业税收的构成。

与此同时，传统汽车需求疲软影响了内燃机车型的税收收入。由此造成的税收缺口是政府未能实现财政目标的主要原因之一。

此外，税务部门征收了2.335万亿泰铢的税款，比2024财年增长约3%。然而，其收入仍比目标低370亿泰铢，即1.6%。企业所得税和进口增值税的征收情况较为疲软。这些数据是在国内消费低迷和许多企业面临困境的背景下得出的。

海关部门也报告了令人失望的税收情况。其税收收入为1191亿泰铢，比预期减少了31亿泰铢，降幅为2.5%。财政部指出，泰铢走强、贸易自由化以及传统汽车进口量下降是造成税收减少的原因。

总体而言，政府净收入比预算目标少了643亿泰铢，相当于2.2%。其他政府机构的额外收入部分弥补了主要税务部门的缺口。

政府收入增长，但随着债务和老龄化成本的增加，其增速却跟不上支出。

重要的是，这些数据并未显示税收总额出现彻底崩溃。2025财年政府收入有所增长，但其增速远低于支出增速。这一点至关重要。税收收入未能达到政府预期，而支出承诺却持续扩大。因此，尽管年度收入增长为正，预算赤字却急剧扩大。

世界银行2026年2月的评估报告指出，资本支出增加是导致经济恶化的原因之一。在上一个预算周期出现延误后，政府投资支出已恢复到正常水平。

因此，部分支出增长反映的是公共投资的时机选择，而非全新的支出承诺。尽管如此，王国还面临着来自医疗保健、养老金、老年人保障和基础设施建设等方面的额外财政压力。

泰国的人口结构状况为其财政困境增添了另一重维度。人口老龄化导致医疗保健和社会保障需求不断增长。与此同时，劳动年龄人口的减少也给未来的所得税征收带来了挑战。

政府还必须继续偿还现有公共债务，同时还要为日常开支和投资承诺提供资金。这些压力恰逢经济增长相对疲软和个人所得税税基狭窄。

截至2025年9月30日，泰国公共债务已达12.226万亿泰铢，占国内生产总值（GDP）的65.08%，远超70%的法定债务上限。此外，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）指出泰国税收制度存在诸多缺陷。其2025年经济调查报告估计，约90%的劳动人口无需缴纳个人所得税。

泰国狭窄的所得税税基和非正规经济暴露出数十亿美元的结构性税收缺口。

尽管如此，许多劳动者仍然通过增值税、消费税和其他间接税缴纳税款。然而，这些数据表明，个人所得税对劳动者的覆盖面有限。

泰国也拥有庞大的非正规经济，许多企业在传统的所得税制度之外运营。因此，政府收入严重依赖于相对较小的所得税纳税群体和更广泛的消费税。

世界银行估计，泰国面临的结构性税收缺口约占其国内生产总值（GDP）的5.6%。这一指标衡量的是现有税收与可比经济体所展现的税收潜力之间的差距。

此外，该银行估计，全面的税收改革最终可增加相当于国内生产总值3.5个百分点的额外收入。以18.8万亿泰铢的国内生产总值为例，这相当于每年约6580亿泰铢。

然而，该数字代表的是全面实施后潜在的额外收入，而非政府的官方预测。国际货币基金组织（IMF）已单独研究了泰国税收制度的改革方案，其中包括将增值税税率从目前的7%提高到法定的10%。根据IMF的估计，分阶段提高增值税税率最终可能带来相当于国内生产总值（GDP）约1.8%的年度额外收入。

泰国正在研究个人所得税和企业税改革方案，以期在财政框架下实现更强有力的税收征管。

与此同时，个人所得税免税额的改革有望额外增加相当于GDP 0.5%的税收。国际机构也已研究了审查企业税收优惠、加强财产税以及提高数字税收合规性等问题。

泰国2026-2030年中期财政框架已包含扩大税基和提高税收征管效率的计划。该框架还规定审查现有的税收优惠政策并加强税收征管。

作为这些改革的一部分，泰国已采纳经合组织/二十国集团针对符合条件的跨国企业的全球最低税收框架。15%的最低税率安排自2025财年起生效。与此同时，政府的财政目标包括控制赤字并将公共债务维持在GDP的70%以下。随着支出需求的持续增长，这些承诺构成了其中期财政规划的一部分。

最新数据显示，泰国副总理兼财政部长埃克尼提·尼提坦帕帕斯(Ekniti Nitithanpraphas)是泰国财政状况的核心人物。2025财年，泰国预算赤字接近9000亿泰铢。此外，三大主要税收部门的税收收入均未达标。公共债务也逼近法定上限，而政府支出增长速度远超收入增长速度。

国际货币基金组织总裁警告称，随着泰国财政赤字扩大，全球债务压力和人工智能繁荣发展不平衡将加剧。

财政状况恶化之际，国际货币基金组织（IMF）再次就全球经济形势发出警告。10月7日星期三，IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃在新加坡发表讲话时强调了不断攀升的公共债务和持续高企的能源价格。

她还警告称，国际人工智能投资热潮存在金融风险。她的讲话是在国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会定于下周在曼谷举行之前发表的。

格奥尔基耶娃指出，影响全球经济的两大强大力量正在发挥作用。一是中东冲突造成的能源供应冲击，二是人工智能投资快速增长带来的能源需求冲击。“这两大力量的综合影响在全球范围内极不均衡，”她说道。她还警告说，人工智能热潮并未惠及许多国家。

与此同时，能源价格上涨推高了通货膨胀、利率和政府借贷成本。格奥尔基耶娃警告说，这些压力正在影响那些已经背负巨额公共债务的经济体。国际货币基金组织估计，全球公共债务已达到二战以来的最高水平。此外，该组织预测，到2030年，全球债务将超过GDP的100%。

国际货币基金组织总裁指出，发达经济体，尤其是美国，背负着尤为沉重的债务负担。她警告说，各国政府不能再仅仅依靠经济增长来解决财政困境。

格奥尔基耶娃呼吁财政整顿，并警告称，人工智能令人失望的回报可能会引发冲击。

她呼吁制定可靠的中期财政整顿计划，包括在必要时采取前期措施。她发表这番言论之际，世界各国政府正面临不断上升的借贷成本和额外的支出压力。

另一方面，格奥尔基耶娃指出了全球人工智能投资规模带来的风险。科技公司正在将大量资源投入到计算基础设施、数据中心和先进系统建设中。

然而，她警告说，令人失望的投资回报可能会引发影响深远的金融冲击。大型人工智能公司财务集中度的提高，使得生产力和盈利增长变得更加重要。

尽管如此，国际货币基金组织也指出人工智能具有巨大的潜在经济效益。其研究表明，成功应用人工智能可使全球年增长率提高约0.5个百分点。这些发现与世界银行对东亚地区技术驱动型出口扩张的最新评估相吻合。然而，这两个机构也指出了投资和经济活动集中带来的风险。

对泰国而言，国际形势的发展与国内巨大的财政压力不谋而合。世界银行修订后的预测很大程度上依赖于人工智能相关出口需求的强劲增长。与此同时，泰国持续面临消费疲软、生产力低下和人口快速老龄化的困境。其财政账目显示，赤字不断扩大，税收征管效果令人失望，且需要大量借贷。

尽管泰国上调了GDP预期，但其表现仍落后于越南和马来西亚，财政部长埃克尼蒂面临财政压力。

与周边经济体相比，泰国的经济表现依然十分突出。越南预计增长7.4%，马来西亚预计增长5.1%。中国的预测值为4.4%，而泰国修正后的预测值为2%。因此，尽管预测值有所上调，泰国的经济表现仍然远远落后于其主要区域竞争对手。

对财政部长埃克尼蒂而言，2025财年的最终数据带来了迫在眉睫的财政挑战。政府支出比收入高出近9000亿泰铢，而税收收入却低于官方目标。

此外，公共债务占GDP的比重已达65.08%，法定上限以下的空间十分有限。政府的中期规划框架将扩大税收范围和加强税收征管列为财政规划的重要组成部分。

因此，泰国进入2026年最后一个季度时，面临着两种截然不同的经济发展趋势。世界银行上调了其增长预期，因为全球人工智能投资热潮将惠及技术出口。

然而，政府支出持续超过收入，而税基依然狭窄。最新的财政账目显示，赤字大幅增加，借贷需求不断攀升。与此同时，即使上调了GDP增长预期，泰国的增长率也仅为2%，远低于区域平均水平。

越南经济增长速度超过泰国，有望在2029年实现净GDP超过泰国。

越南正大量吸引泰国的优质游客，而曼谷却在打击非法游客的行动中束手无策。

泰国曾经强大的旅游业正在衰落，如今又面临泰铢高估带来的进一步打击。

经济学家对泰铢在2025年出现异常且破坏性的上涨感到困惑，认为这将重创旅游业和出口。

泰国顶级银行家猛烈抨击当前经济状况，呼吁加强包容性经济。

顶级经济学家警告称，随着美国经济疲软，泰铢可能走强。旅游业和出口将面临严重冲击。

泰国央行即将卸任的行长出席最后一次货币政策委员会会议，市场预期将下调利率。

财政部和央行采取措施，通过将不良债务转移到资产公司来提振信贷。

商界领袖和银行家敦促政府不惜一切代价推进美泰关税协议。

具有里程碑意义的美泰贸易协议在内阁特别会议上获得批准，19%的关税税率受到热烈欢迎

对泰国有利。美国刚刚宣布了一项19%的关税协议。税率比预期更低，更具竞争力。

在与美国最终敲定协议之际，曼谷方面进行了最后的调整。然而，泰国可能无法与越南匹敌。

约瑟夫·安东尼是一位来自爱尔兰的侨民，过去十年一直居住在泰国。他曾在爱尔兰和泰国的媒体行业担任过编辑职务，拥有丰富的媒体从业经验。他主要关注泰国的经济和商业新闻，以及侨民的生活方式。

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