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军事分析研究机构

Russian Occupation Update, October 8, 2026

Russian forces claim to have evacuated over 4,000 Ukrainian civilians from frontline settlements in Donetsk Oblast.

ISWStefaniia Bern查看原文 ↗
俄罗斯占领最新进展，2026年10月8日

Russian forces claim to have evacuated over 4,000 Ukrainian civilians from frontline settlements in Donetsk Oblast, highlighting how wartime population displacement may facilitate Russia’s administrative and political integration of occupied populations in ways that raise concerns under international law.

The Russian Ministry of Education announced its intent to launch a state-controlled television service in schools in occupied Ukraine in 2027.

The Russian occupation leadership of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is conducting outreach with children as young as kindergarten-aged in order to promote service in the Russian nuclear industry.

The Mariupol occupation administration’s housing seizure and redistribution policy continues to disenfranchise Ukrainian residents.

The Russian information space appears to have coalesced around a single narrative line intended to deflect from Russia’s responsibility for the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the occupied Oleshky area.

Russia’s new three-year federal budget contains continued funding provisions for the occupation of Ukraine, signaling an overall shift in focus towards long-term occupation and integration projects.

Deportation and Forcible Transfer of Ukrainian Citizens, Including Children

Russian forces claim to have evacuated over 4,000 Ukrainian civilians from frontline settlements in Donetsk Oblast, highlighting how wartime population displacement may facilitate Russia’s administrative and political integration of occupied populations in ways that raise concerns under international law . The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on September 29 that soldiers of the 51st Combined Arms Army (formerly the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic [DNR] Army Corps, Southern Military District) evacuated civilians, including one minor, from Bilytske (north of Pokrovsk).[1] The Russian MoD claimed that soldiers took evacuees to an unspecified “safe area,” presumably deeper within Russian-occupied territory in Donetsk Oblast. Russian Senator and member of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Natalia Nikonorova told Kremlin newswire TASS on September 29 that Russian forces evacuated 4,500 civilians from Donetsk Oblast frontline settlements in an unspecified period, including 971 people from near Kostyantynivka and 52 children.[2] Nikonorova claimed that Russian forces took evacuees to temporary accommodation shelters (TACs) and that civilians quickly began the process of obtaining Russian citizenship upon their arrival at the TAC. While military evacuations themselves are permissible under international law in conditions of intense danger or acute humanitarian necessity, Russia’s treatment of civilians after the evacuation may raise questions. ISW previously assessed that Russia has used TACs to facilitate the “filtration” of Ukrainian civilians, effectively holding Ukrainian citizens in these facilities, interrogating them about their potential loyalties to Ukraine, and then beginning the administrative processes of preparing them for transfer deeper into occupied territories or outright deportation to Russia.[3] Nikonorova’s statement about the process of individuals at TACs quickly receiving Russian passports suggests that the TACs are continuing to fulfill some filtration-type administrative functions. The issue of Russian citizenship also suggests that Russia views these military evacuations as the start of a permanent process intended to turn Ukrainian citizens into Russians, which may violate the Fourth Geneva Convention’s considerations of evacuations as a temporary removal and shift the process into the realm of forced removal or deportation under international law.[4]

Sociocultural Control

The Russian Ministry of Education announced its intent to launch a state-controlled television service in schools in occupied Ukraine in 2027. Russian Minister of Education Sergei Kravtsov stated on September 30 that the Ministry plans to launch a unified television service in all schools in Russia and in occupied Ukraine in 2027.[5] Kravtsov claimed that the television service will include educational films and videos to be shown during class and breaks. The service will first launch with 15 unspecified pilot regions and then expand to the rest of Russia and occupied Ukraine in 2027. The Russian Ministry of Education has already captured and co-opted all aspects of education in occupied areas, and the integration of this state-controlled television will allow for even deeper proliferation of pro-Russian ideologies into the school system.

Militarization of Occupied Areas

The Russian occupation leadership of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is conducting outreach with children as young as kindergarten-aged in order to promote service in the Russian nuclear industry. ZNPP occupation authorities announced on September 29 the start of the “Atom for Children” competition for kindergarten teachers in occupied Enerhodar.[6] The competition encourages teachers to “promote the nuclear industry and the ZNPP” to kindergarten students, and includes versions such as “Nuclear Literacy from the Cradle.” ZNPP occupation leadership emphasized on October 2 that it is critical to train nuclear operators for the ZNPP from a very young age and noted that it has many programs in place to train school-aged children via internships and special training courses. Russian state nuclear power operator Rosenergoatom, which controls the ZNPP, has become deeply ingrained in the school system and social fabric of Enerhodar since 2022, facilitating efforts to militarize Ukrainian children as young as preschool-aged in order to prepare them for future careers in the Russian nuclear industry.[7]

Administrative and Bureaucratic Control

The Mariupol occupation administration’s housing seizure and redistribution policy continues to disenfranchise Ukrainian residents. An occupied Mariupol-based Telegram channel posted footage on October 1 of an apparent altercation over a redistributed apartment in Mariupol.[8] The Telegram channel alleged that representatives of the Mariupol occupation administration registered two apartments belonging to a Mariupol resident with Rosreestr (Russia’s federal real estate registration agency) in September 2025, after which another individual identified only as “Tsybulko” took ownership of the properties. The post noted that the original owner did not re-register the properties under Russian law following the occupation of Mariupol in 2022. The footage shows four self-identified representatives of the new owner trying to gain access to the apartments, despite another resident trying to prove ownership of the property using Ukrainian legal documents. The incident captured in the October 1 footage is not an isolated instance of Russian housing policy in occupied Ukraine but rather is consistent with a broader trend of apartment seizures and redistributions that is particularly evident in occupied Mariupol. Occupation authorities identify property as “ownerless” based on a set of generally abstract criteria, including the absence of updated Russian-standard real estate documents or unpaid utility bills; they then enter the property into the register of “ownerless property,” after which the owner has 30 days to physically come prove their ownership of the property; after which the property is entered into the municipal housing fund and is from there redistributed via the “compensation queue,” with priority given to Russian citizens or individuals loyal to the occupation regime.[9]

Occupation Administration Mismanagement and Internal Dynamics

The Russian information space appears to have coalesced around a single narrative line intended to deflect from Russia’s responsibility for the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the occupied Oleshky area. Russian officials and media sources began narratively engaging with Oleshky following Ukraine’s September 27 covert operation to airdrop food and supplies into the area using drones, suggesting that the operation was a particular pain point for the wider Russian information space.[10] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on October 5 that Ukrainian forces are preventing people from leaving the Oleshky area and are using drones to disrupt food and water supplies, despite visual evidence that the Ukrainian 34th Marine Brigade was able to conduct another drone drop of critical humanitarian supplies into Oleshky on October 4.[11] Various Kherson Oblast occupation officials made a series of statements between September 30 and October 5 claiming that Ukraine is the sole actor responsible for the humanitarian crisis and that Russian forces and officials are powerless to address critical supply shortages because of Ukrainian interference.[12] Russian state television program Vesti interviewed a resident of occupied Oleshky and a servicemember of the 331st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (98th VDV Division) who amplified similar claims.[13] Russian responses to the crisis in Oleshky have significantly intensified in the past week, which is noteworthy considering the relative informational silence on the issue despite widespread reports of humanitarian decline since late 2025 and early 2026. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) warned on October 7 that Russia was preparing a series of “informational and psychological operations” to deflect blame for the situation in Oleshky onto Ukraine.[14] Russia is the sole party blocking the supply of aid and humanitarian rescue efforts in the Oleshky area.[15] Ukraine has made at least three formal attempts to establish a localized ceasefire for Oleshky in order to provide some basic relief to blockaded citizens, but Russia has ignored all proposals, forcing Ukrainian troops to engage in a risky operation to provide supplies via drone drop.[16] The intensification of the Russian information operation surrounding Oleshky appears intended to deflect from the fact that the Kremlin likely views any tangible response to conditions in Oleshky as a display of weakness.[17]

Physical and Legal Repressions

Nothing significant to report.

Economic and Financial Control

Information Space Control

See the “Sociocultural control” section for more information about Russian plans to institute a state television program in schools in occupied Ukraine.

Infrastructure and Development Projects

Russia’s new three-year federal budget contains continued funding provisions for the occupation of Ukraine, signaling an overall shift in focus towards long-term occupation and integration projects. The Russian government submitted a draft federal budget for 2027-2029 to the State Duma on September 30.[18] The draft budget contains 865 billion rubles (10 billion USD) for the financing of the state program on “Restoration and Socioeconomic Developments of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Kherson Oblast, “broken down into 293 billion rubles (3.4 billion USD) for 2027, 290 billion rubles (3.4 billion USD) for 2028, and 282 billion rubles (3.3 billion USD) for 2029.[19] The previous three-year budget for 2024-2026 allocated around 900 billion rubles ($10.5 billion) to the same program.[20] The Russian government first established the state program on the restoration and socioeconomic development of occupied Ukraine in 2023 with the intention of “overcoming the socioeconomic backwardness” of occupied areas and bringing them up to the “level of average Russian indicators of quality of life of citizens of the Russian Federation.” The relatively stable federal budget allocations for the occupation of Ukraine suggest that Russia continues to view investment in the occupation as a lucrative and necessary federal priority because it facilitates the forced integration of occupied territories into Russia.[21]

[1] https://t.me/mod_russia/67742 [2] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/28161473 [3] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-february-19-2026/ [4] https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/gciv-1949/article-49 [5] https://xonews dot ru/news/minprosveschenija-edinoe-shkolnoe-televidenie-pojavitsja-vo-vseh-shkolah-s-2027-goda/ [6] https://t.me/nashenergodar/15006; https://t.me/znppofficial/1858 [7] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-april-30-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-september-11-2025/ [8] https://t.me/BLMariupol/42421 [9] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-ca98fa24-29a3-4c74-aa7d-ce38f756270d; https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/mariupol-rozdayut-bezkhazyayne-zhytlo/33868941.html; https://totinsights.org/research.html; https://t.me/mariupolz/98610 [10] https://t.me/olexandrprokudin/15572 [11] https://www.facebook.com/reel/1767143411280703; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/10/04/%c2%abvoroga-ne-goduyemo-ale-i-svoyih-ne-kydayemo%c2%bb-morpihy-provodyat-v-oleshkah-masshtabnu-gumanitarnu-misiyu/ [12] https://ria dot ru/20261005/kiev-2122230515.html; https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/28186231; https://tass dot ru/politika/28160487 [13] https://www.vesti dot ru/ns/nichego-ne-bylo-zhitelnica-aleshek-rasskazala-o-strashnom-golode; https://www.vesti dot ru/ns/boec-s-pozyvnym-reks-rasskazal-pochemu-lyudi-ne-khotyat-pokidat-aleshki [14] https://t.me/SBUkr/18760 [15] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/oleshky-how-russia-governs-through-humanitarian-decline/ [16] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/oleshky-how-russia-governs-through-humanitarian-decline/ [17] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/oleshky-how-russia-governs-through-humanitarian-decline/ [18] http://duma.gov dot ru/news/64184/ [19] https://ria dot ru/20261001/donbass-2121448462.html [20] https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2024/01/23/moscow-to-slash-funding-for-occupied-ukrainian-territories-forbes-a83815 [21] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-july-3-2025/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-occupation-update-march-19-2026/

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