Most Germans want Europe to have its own nuclear umbrella, poll finds

THE HAGUE, Netherlands — Nearly two-thirds of Germans support a European nuclear deterrent independent of the United States, according to a new poll released Monday, marking a dramatic shift in public opinion amid growing concerns about American commitment.

The survey found 64% of Germans back the concept of a European nuclear umbrella that doesn’t rely on Washington, with support spanning age groups, regions, and political parties — an unusual consensus in German policy debates. The poll was conducted by the well-regarded pollster Forsa and commissioned by the magazine “Internationale Politik.” Polling was conducted in mid-June, before U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, according to German press agency DPA , which reported on the findings.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz had already signalled his intention to pursue discussions with France and Britain about developing a collective nuclear strategy for Europe while still on the campaign trail last year. A poll this March showed that 54% of Germans were supportive of initiating such talks.

The findings reveal a complex German position on nuclear deterrence. While embracing a European solution, Germans remain opposed to their country developing its own atomic weapons, with 64% rejecting a German bomb when asked in March. This suggests that public support lies in participating in a European arrangement rather than Berlin going the step alone.

The new polling results reflect escalating anxiety about President Donald Trump’s commitment to European security, particularly fears he might withdraw the U.S. from its leading role in NATO. Currently, the United States extends its nuclear umbrella over Germany and the European NATO states, with American nuclear bombs stationed in Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy.

Until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a large and consistent majority of Germans were skeptical of American weapons based in their country.

Simultaneously, however, voices here grew louder that favored a degree of European strategic autonomy. In March 2025, 69% of Germans supported European countries building a common army, up from just 49% in 2015.

The issue holding back a so-called “Eurodeterrent” isn’t primarily technological — France’s or even Britain’s existing capabilities could serve as a foundation — but rather strategic, requiring fundamental changes in posture and trust-building among European partners.

The poll results also show Germans willing to spend substantially on defense, with 75% supporting increased EU member state military spending.

Linus Höller is Defense News' Europe correspondent and OSINT investigator. He reports on the arms deals, sanctions, and geopolitics shaping Europe and the world. He holds master’s degrees in WMD nonproliferation, terrorism studies, and international relations, and works in four languages: English, German, Russian, and Spanish.

荷兰海牙——周一公布的一项新民意调查显示，近三分之二的德国人支持建立独立于美国的欧洲核威慑力量，这标志着公众舆论发生了巨大转变，人们越来越担心美国的承诺。

调查发现，64%的德国人支持建立一个不依赖华盛顿的欧洲核保护伞，这一支持涵盖了各个年龄段、地区和政党——这在德国的政策辩论中实属罕见。这项民调由知名民调机构Forsa进行，并由《国际政治》杂志委托开展。据报道，民调于6月中旬进行，早于美国对伊朗核设施的袭击。德国新闻社DPA报道了这一调查结果。

德国总理弗里德里希·默茨去年在竞选期间就已表示，他有意与法国和英国就制定欧洲集体核战略展开讨论。今年三月的一项民意调查显示，54%的德国人支持启动此类谈判。

调查结果揭示了德国在核威慑问题上的复杂立场。尽管德国人支持欧洲一体化解决方案，但他们仍然反对本国发展核武器。3月份的一项调查显示，64%的受访者反对德国拥有原子弹。这表明，公众支持德国参与欧洲一体化进程，而不是柏林单方面采取行动。

最新的民调结果反映出，民众对特朗普总统维护欧洲安全的承诺日益担忧，尤其担心他可能会让美国退出北约的领导地位。目前，美国对德国和欧洲北约成员国拥有核保护伞，并在德国、比利时、荷兰和意大利部署了美国核武器。

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，绝大多数德国人对部署在他们国家的美国武器持怀疑态度。

然而与此同时，支持欧洲一定程度战略自主的声音也日益高涨。2025年3月，69%的德国人支持欧洲各国建立联合军队，高于2015年的49%。

阻碍所谓“欧洲威慑”的问题主要不是技术问题——法国甚至英国现有的能力可以作为基础——而是战略问题，需要欧洲伙伴之间在姿态和信任建设方面进行根本性变革。

民调结果还显示，德国人愿意在国防上投入大量资金，75% 的人支持增加欧盟成员国的军费开支。

林努斯·霍勒是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者和开源情报调查员。他报道影响欧洲乃至全球的军火交易、制裁和地缘政治。他拥有大规模杀伤性武器不扩散、恐怖主义研究和国际关系三个硕士学位，并精通英语、德语、俄语和西班牙语四种语言。