Seoul stocks face fresh uncertainty as Democrats retake US Congress

Korean stocks faced policy uncertainty in Seoul Wednesday after Democrats regained control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress, while analysts said sweeping changes were unlikely because President Donald Trump could veto legislation and issue executive orders. The KOSPI closed at 5,683.80, up 0.62 percent, after swinging between gains and losses. Analysts said medium-term performance would depend more on AI investment returns, semiconductor demand and foreign investor flows than on the election result. They also pointed to oil prices and the exchange rate as factors to watch.

The KOSPI opened at 5,786.13 and reached an intraday high of 5,828.13 before falling as low as 5,421.72.

Samsung Electronics fell 0.68 percent and SK hynix declined 0.14 percent, while the Kosdaq gained 1.50 percent to close at 714.95.

The won weakened 0.5 won to close onshore trading at 1,341.5 won per dollar Wednesday, after the exchange rate had earlier breached 1,500 won per dollar in intraday trading this year.

Foreign investors extended their net selling streak in Korean stocks to a seventh month in November.

In Lee Kyung-soo’s analysis of market declines in 2002, 2008 and 2020, foreign investors became net buyers in 26 percent of observations after three months, 57 percent after six months and 94 percent after a year.

Published Nov 4, 2026 4:19 pm KST

Updated Nov 4, 2026 4:25 pm KST

KOSPI edges up after volatile session amid US policy uncertainty

A screen displays U.S. midterm election coverage and KOSPI at Woori Bank’s dealing room in Seoul, Wednesday. The benchmark closed at 5,683.80, up 35.01 points, or 0.62 percent, from the previous session. Yonhap

Korean stocks face growing policy uncertainty after Democrats regained control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the U.S. midterm elections, according to market analysts, Wednesday.

They say obstacles to extending corporate tax cuts and the prospect of stricter oversight of Big Tech and artificial intelligence (AI) could fuel volatility in Korea’s tech-heavy stock market.

However, sweeping policy changes remain unlikely given U.S. President Donald Trump’s veto power and ability to issue executive orders, the analysts said. Over the medium term, Korean stocks are expected to be driven more by returns on AI investment, semiconductor demand and foreign investor flows than by the election outcome itself.

KOSPI closed slightly higher after a volatile session as investors assessed the implications of the Democrats’ victory.

After rebounding 2.24 percent in the previous session, the benchmark opened at 5,786.13, up 137.34 points, or 2.43 percent, and climbed as high as 5,828.13, a gain of 3.17 percent. It then reversed course, falling as much as 4.02 percent to 5,421.72, before recovering to close at 5,683.80, up 35.01 points, or 0.62 percent.

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix fell 0.68 percent and 0.14 percent, respectively. The Kosdaq closed at 714.95, up 10.56 points, or 1.50 percent.

Lee Ji-seon, an analyst at Toss Securities, said the Democrats’ takeover of Congress could heighten market volatility.

“An extension of corporate tax cuts could be harder to secure, while Big Tech and the AI industry could face closer regulatory scrutiny, adding to market volatility,” Lee said.

Still, Democrats would face significant hurdles in turning their legislative agenda into law, as Trump could veto bills approved by Congress.

“Even after clearing both chambers, legislation requires presidential approval, and Trump is likely to reject bills proposed by Democrats,” said Kim Sung-keun, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities. “Overriding a veto would require a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, which would be difficult without cooperation from Republicans.”

He also said the Trump administration could rely on executive orders to keep its current policies in place.

Analysts advised investors to watch actual AI spending by major U.S. customers and demand at Korean chipmakers, alongside any policy shifts following the election. Stability in oil prices and the exchange rate will also be key to the market outlook.

“Investors are showing signs of fatigue after repeatedly confronting uncertainty over the AI industry since October,” said Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities. “The pressure on companies to demonstrate profitability will persist with each earnings season.”

However, Han said AI-related stocks had already undergone a substantial correction since October, while pressure from oil prices and interest rates had eased.

The won-dollar exchange rate has recently fallen to the low 1,300s after breaching 1,500 won per dollar in intraday trading earlier this year. In the Seoul foreign exchange market Wednesday, the won weakened by 0.5 won to close onshore trading at 1,341.5 won per dollar.

“Any further correction is more likely to take the form of an extended period of sideways trading than another sharp decline in prices,” Han said.

People vote at a polling location on Election Day during the U.S. midterm elections in Anchorage, Alaska, Tuesday. AFP-Yonhap

Analysts also view renewed foreign buying as crucial to a market recovery, with overseas investors extending their net selling streak to a seventh month in November.

Yet lingering uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and political developments in major economies could keep a sustained return to foreign buying out of reach for at least another three months, according to Lee Kyung-soo, an analyst at Hana Securities.

Lee examined periods in 2002, 2008 and 2020 when sharp market declines coincided with prolonged foreign selling. He found that KOSPI tended to rebound after spending about three months establishing a bottom, while foreign investors generally turned net buyers after six months. The proportion of observations in which foreigners became net buyers was just 26 percent after three months, rising to 57 percent after six months and 94 percent after a year.

“Our quantitative analysis suggests that a rebound in KOSPI and a sustained return to net buying by foreign investors may be at least three months away,” Lee said.

Still, some analysts expect the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections to remove a source of uncertainty and potentially encourage foreign investors to return.

“Reduced political uncertainty following the U.S. elections could support a recovery in global risk appetite,” said Lee Sang-yeon, an analyst at Shinyoung Securities.

“Foreign investors turned net buyers of Korean futures last week, while net program buying increased, both positive signals,” Lee said. “This week, attention will be on whether they keep buying futures and scale back their selling in the cash market.”

Trump hand-picked Senate candidates. Republicans paid the price

Midterms bringing in wave of historic firsts for some states — and for the nation

周三，韩国股市在首尔面临政策不确定性，此前民主党重新掌控了美国国会两院。分析人士表示，由于特朗普总统可能否决法案并发布行政命令，因此不太可能出现大刀阔斧的政策改革。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）收于5683.80点，上涨0.62%，盘中涨跌互现。分析人士指出，中期市场表现将更多地取决于人工智能投资回报、半导体需求和外国投资者流入，而非选举结果。他们还指出，油价和汇率也是需要关注的因素。

韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）开盘报5786.13点，盘中最高触及5828.13点，随后跌至5421.72点。

三星电子下跌 0.68%，SK 海力士下跌 0.14%，而韩国创业板指数上涨 1.50%，收于 714.95 点。

周三，韩元兑美元汇率下跌0.5韩元，收于1341.5韩元兑1美元。此前，韩元汇率在今年早些时候的盘中交易中一度突破1500韩元兑1美元。

11月，外国投资者连续第七个月净卖出韩国股市。

李京洙对 2002 年、2008 年和 2020 年的市场下跌进行分析后发现，外国投资者在三个月后有 26% 的观察结果成为净买家，六个月后有 57% 的观察结果成为净买家，一年后有 94% 的观察结果成为净买家。

发布于2026年11月4日下午4:19（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年11月4日下午4:25（韩国标准时间）

受美国政策不确定性影响，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）在经历剧烈波动后小幅上涨。

周三，首尔友利银行交易室的屏幕上显示着美国中期选举报道和韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）。该基准指数收于5683.80点，较前一交易日上涨35.01点，涨幅0.62%。韩联社

市场分析师周三表示，在美国中期选举中，民主党重新掌控参议院和众议院后，韩国股市面临日益增长的政策不确定性。

他们表示，延长企业减税政策的障碍以及对大型科技公司和人工智能 (AI) 进行更严格监管的前景，可能会加剧韩国科技股为主的股市的波动。

然而，分析人士表示，鉴于美国总统特朗普拥有否决权和发布行政命令的能力，政策发生全面变革的可能性仍然不大。中期来看，韩国股市的走势预计更多地取决于人工智能投资回报、半导体需求和外国投资者的流入，而非选举结果本身。

韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）在经历一段波动后小幅收高，投资者正在评估民主党获胜的影响。

该基准指数在前一交易日反弹2.24%后，开盘报5786.13点，上涨137.34点，涨幅2.43%，最高触及5828.13点，涨幅3.17%。随后该指数逆转，一度下跌4.02%至5421.72点，之后反弹，最终收于5683.80点，上涨35.01点，涨幅0.62%。

三星电子和SK海力士分别下跌0.68%和0.14%。韩国创业板指数收于714.95点，上涨10.56点，涨幅1.50%。

Toss Securities 的分析师 Lee Ji-seon 表示，民主党掌控国会可能会加剧市场波动。

李表示：“延长企业减税政策可能更难实现，而大型科技公司和人工智能行业可能面临更严格的监管审查，这将加剧市场波动。”

不过，民主党人要将他们的立法议程转化为法律仍将面临重大障碍，因为特朗普可以否决国会批准的法案。

“即使法案在参众两院获得通过，仍需总统批准，而特朗普很可能会否决民主党提出的法案，”未来资产证券分析师金成根表示。“推翻总统否决需要参众两院均获得三分之二的多数票，如果没有共和党的合作，这将非常困难。”

他还表示，特朗普政府可以依靠行政命令来维持其现行政策。

分析师建议投资者密切关注美国主要客户在人工智能领域的实际支出以及韩国芯片制造商的需求，同时关注大选后的任何政策变化。油价和汇率的稳定也将对市场前景至关重要。

Kiwoom证券分析师韩智英表示：“自去年10月以来，投资者不断面临人工智能行业的不确定性，已经显露出疲态。每个财报季，企业都将继续面临盈利压力。”

不过，韩表示，自去年10月以来，人工智能相关股票已经经历了大幅回调，而油价和利率带来的压力也已有所缓解。

今年早些时候，韩元兑美元汇率一度突破1500韩元，但近期已回落至1300韩元左右。周三首尔外汇市场，韩元兑美元汇率下跌0.5韩元，收于1341.5韩元。

韩表示：“任何进一步的调整更有可能表现为一段较长时间的横盘整理，而不是价格再次大幅下跌。”

周二，在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行的中期选举日，人们在投票站投票。法新社-韩联社

分析师们也认为，外国投资者重新买入对市场复苏至关重要，因为海外投资者在11月份的净卖出记录已持续七个月。

韩亚证券分析师李京洙表示，中东局势和主要经济体的政治发展仍然存在不确定性，这可能会使外国买家持续回升至少再持续三个月都无法实现。

李教授考察了2002年、2008年和2020年市场大幅下跌与外资持续抛售同时发生的时期。他发现，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）在触底反弹前通常需要大约三个月的时间，而外资通常在六个月后转为净买入。外资转为净买入的比例在三个月后仅为26%，六个月后上升至57%，一年后则高达94%。

李表示：“我们的定量分析表明，韩国综合股价指数(KOSPI)的反弹以及外国投资者持续恢复净买入可能至少还需要三个月的时间。”

不过，一些分析人士预计，美国中期选举的结束将消除一个不确定因素，并可能鼓励外国投资者重返美国市场。

新荣证券分析师李相延表示：“美国大选后政治不确定性的降低可能会提振全球风险偏好。”

李表示：“上周外国投资者转为韩国期货净买家，同时程序化净买入量也有所增加，这两个都是积极信号。本周，市场关注的焦点将是他们是否会继续买入期货，并减少现货市场的卖出。”

特朗普亲自挑选了参议院候选人。共和党为此付出了代价。

中期选举为一些州乃至整个国家带来了一系列历史性的“第一次”。