US munitions depleted by Iran war will take years to restore, analysis finds

The United States will need at least three years to restore an array of critical weapons systems to prewar levels following its 38-day bombing campaign against Iran, according to the Center for Strategic International Studies.

The new analysis, released on Wednesday, warned that depleted inventories have “created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict. The time needed to rebuild those inventories has thus become a major concern.”

However, the authors acknowledged that the U.S. “has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war.”

U.S. Central Command said more than 12,000 targets were hit during Operation Epic Fury, which CSIS found significantly drew down America’s stockpiles of Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM), as well as two vital interceptors: the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Patriot.

The think tank, a bipartisan policy research organization, estimates that more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles were launched, far exceeding the average annual procurement of 86 over the past decade – and that replenishment could take until 2030 or 2031. It also determined that up to 290 THAAD interceptors were used, with those reserves returning to prior levels only by mid-to-late 2029.

The Pentagon has not publicly disclosed the scale of munitions expended before a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran took effect April 7, citing operational security. But Jules Hurst III, the Defense Department’s acting comptroller, told lawmakers earlier this month that the conflict had cost roughly $29 billion, with additional expenditures still expected.

The authors of the report argue that today’s challenge “isn’t money; it’s time.”

“It takes time to expand production capacity and to build these complex systems. Thus, there will be a window of vulnerability for several years until inventories return to their previous levels and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire,” they wrote.

“China is deeply aware that it has no recent combat experience and that it performed poorly in its last war—against Vietnam in 1979," the analysis continued. “That difference in experience may preserve deterrence until munitions inventories are restored.”

In a statement to Military Times, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly asserted that the U.S. military “has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of President Trump’s strategic goals and beyond.”

“Even still, the president has urged our defense contractors to constantly produce more made-in-America weapons, which are the best in the world. Democrats destroyed our military, but President Trump rebuilt it. Think tank armchair quarterbacks are not read into sensitive information and have no idea what they’re talking about,” she added.

Trump recently held a meeting with executives from major defense contractors — including BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace, L3Harris Missile Solutions, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon — to discuss expanding production capacity. The president subsequently announced that the CEOs “agreed to quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry in that we want to reach, as rapidly as possible, the highest levels of quantity.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has conceded that replenishing the Pentagon’s arsenal will take “months and years,” depending on the system in question, emphasized on Wednesday that the process is already underway.

“Defense manufacturers are investing in new plants, and new manufacturing, new production lines, so that we’re getting weapons faster than ever,” Hegseth said during a cabinet meeting at the White House.

Tanya Noury is a reporter for Military Times and Defense News, with coverage focusing on the White House and Pentagon.

据战略与国际研究中心称，在对伊朗进行了 38 天的轰炸行动之后，美国至少需要三年时间才能将一系列关键武器系统恢复到战前水平。

周三发布的新分析报告警告称，库存枯竭“为潜在的西太平洋冲突创造了脆弱期。因此，重建这些库存所需的时间已成为一个主要问题。”

然而，作者承认，美国“拥有足够的弹药来应对伊朗战争中任何可能出现的情况”。

美国中央司令部表示，在“史诗狂怒行动”中，超过 12,000 个目标遭到打击。战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 发现，该行动大幅消耗了美国的战斧陆攻导弹 (TLAM) 库存，以及两种重要的拦截导弹：末段高空区域防御系统 (THAAD) 和爱国者导弹系统。

这家两党政策研究机构——智库估计，发射了超过1000枚战斧导弹，远远超过过去十年平均每年86枚的采购量——而且补充工作可能要到2030年或2031年才能完成。该机构还确定，使用了多达290枚萨德拦截器，这些拦截器的储备要到2029年中后期才能恢复到之前的水平。

五角大楼以行动安全为由，并未公开披露华盛顿和德黑兰于4月7日停火协议生效前消耗的弹药规模。但国防部代理审计长朱尔斯·赫斯特三世本月早些时候告诉国会议员，这场冲突已耗资约290亿美元，预计还将有额外支出。

该报告的作者认为，如今的挑战“不是金钱，而是时间”。

他们写道：“扩大生产能力和建设这些复杂的系统都需要时间。因此，在库存恢复到之前的水平之前，将会有几年的脆弱期；而要达到战争策划者所期望的水平，还需要几年时间。”

分析继续指出：“中国深知自身缺乏近期实战经验，且在1979年对越战争中表现不佳。这种经验上的差异或许能在弹药储备恢复之前维持威慑力。”

白宫副新闻秘书安娜·凯利在接受《军事时报》采访时表示，美国军方“拥有足够的弹药和储备，可以满足特朗普总统的所有战略目标，甚至更多”。

“即便如此，总统仍然敦促我们的国防承包商不断生产更多美国制造的武器，这些武器是世界上最好的。民主党人摧毁了我们的军队，但特朗普总统重建了它。那些只会纸上谈兵的智库专家根本不了解敏感信息，他们根本不知道自己在说什么，”她补充道。

特朗普总统近日与包括英国航空航天系统公司（BAE Systems）、波音公司、霍尼韦尔航空航天公司、L3哈里斯导弹解决方案公司、洛克希德·马丁公司、诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司和雷神公司在内的多家主要国防承包商的高管举行会议，讨论扩大产能的问题。随后，总统宣布，这些首席执行官“同意将‘精良级’武器的产量提高三倍，因为我们希望尽快达到最高的产量水平。”

国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯承认，根据具体情况，补充五角大楼的武器库需要“数月甚至数年”的时间。他周三强调，这一过程已经开始。

“国防制造商正在投资建设新工厂、新生产线，以便我们比以往任何时候都更快地获得武器，”赫格塞斯在白宫内阁会议上说。

Tanya Noury 是《军事时报》和《防务新闻》的记者，她的报道主要集中在白宫和五角大楼。