Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent ‘turning point’ in war

Ukraine has a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its hand for peace talks, a senior commander told Reuters, predicting a “turning point” was imminent after more than four years of war.

Russian forces have made grinding gains since their full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but the advances have slowed this year and Ukrainian troops are increasing pressure on the battlefield to try to push them back.

Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, who commands Ukraine’s Third Army Corps , one of Ukraine’s most respected fighting forces, told Reuters in an interview that he believes Russia’s army is exhausted and incapable of making major breakthroughs.

If Ukraine’s military can build and maintain momentum over several months, it can gain the initiative along the frontline and push Russia to abandon its designs on the last part of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine that it does not yet occupy, he said.

“I believe the next six to nine months are a turning point,” Biletsky said at an undisclosed underground location in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

“More precisely, I think the next six are the most critical,” he said.

The issue of who controls Donetsk has been a stumbling block in U.S.-backed peace talks that have stalled, with Russia wanting the entire region and Ukraine refusing to withdraw from territory that Moscow’s troops have been unable to conquer.

“We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength - not weakness - about a truly stable truce,” said Biletsky, a right-wing political leader who founded the battle-hardened Azov Battalion and now commands tens of thousands of troops.

“From a military point of view, this is realistic.”

Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky of the Third Army Corps of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at an undisclosed location in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, May 21, 2026. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

Russia’s Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story. Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed victory in Ukraine and said this month he thinks the war is nearing an end.

Russia’s advances have been complicated by a decision by billionaire Elon Musk to deny Moscow’s forces access to his Starlink satellite-based internet service. Kyiv has meanwhile stepped up medium-range drone attacks on Russian air defenses and logistics, helping more long-range strikes get through to hit oil and military facilities in Russia.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week Ukraine had retaken nearly 600 square km (230 square miles) of territory in 2026. Reuters could not independently verify the figure. Moscow currently controls almost one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.

Assessing the military situation, John Helin of the Finland-based Black Bird conflict-analysis group echoed Biletsky in saying fatigue was a problem for Russian forces, while Ukraine’s war effort is hampered by a manpower shortage.

“It does seem like, four or five months into this year, it’s much more likely that the Russians will get exhausted before the Ukrainian problems come to a breaking point,” he told Reuters.

On Monday, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said Kyiv’s forces were now “actively challenging the positional character of the war” and could soon be capable of staging limited mechanized assaults.

Russian troops are bearing down on eastern Ukraine’s “Fortress Belt” where fighting is raging inside the strategic city of Kostiantynivka, its southern end.

The constellation of heavily fortified cities anchors Ukrainian defenses. Capturing it would position Russia to threaten the rest of the Donbas.

Biletsky, whose forces hold over one-tenth of the total front line, said his troops were firmly holding the flank around Sloviansk, the belt’s northern bastion, and forcing Russia to attack the city head-on.

Such costly assaults have helped drain Russian forces and led to heavy losses of field commanders, he said, in what he described as a professional degradation of Moscow’s military.

“The lack of personnel no longer allows them to advance the way they did, for example, a year ago,” said Biletsky.

Biletsky said it was too early to draw conclusions from Kyiv’s recent success, but that Ukraine could capitalize on it by continuing mid-range attacks and advancing “carefully”.

Moscow is “radically losing” in battlefield communications because of Musk’s crackdown on use of Starlink, Biletsky said.

But he described the sides at parity in evolving technology - with Ukraine leading in unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and heavy bomber drones, and Russia winning the race for fibre-optic drones, which cannot be jammed.

A potential blueprint for a modernized Ukrainian army, his corps has led efforts to transform training and integrate new technology such as UGVs as an important part of its battlefield strategy.

Biletsky’s units lead the way in deploying stealthy kamikaze drones and robots armed with machine guns or rocket launchers to replace significant portions of infantrymen, aiming for 30% by 2027, he said.

The next “revolution” will allow commanders to stage more “creative” combined assault operations while conserving precious troops, Biletsky said.

“It will happen this year, and I think we’ll show how our corps is a vivid example of it,” he said.

一位高级指挥官告诉路透社，乌克兰有六个月的时间从俄罗斯手中夺取战场主动权，增强其在和平谈判中的筹码。他预测，经过四年多的战争，“转折点”即将到来。

自 2022 年 2 月全面入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯军队取得了缓慢的进展，但今年的进展速度有所放缓，乌克兰军队正在战场上加大压力，试图将他们击退。

乌克兰第三军军长安德烈·比列茨基准将（乌克兰最受尊敬的作战部队之一）在接受路透社采访时表示，他认为俄罗斯军队已经筋疲力尽，无力取得重大突破。

他说，如果乌克兰军队能够在接下来的几个月里建立并保持优势，就能在前线取得主动权，迫使俄罗斯放弃其对乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区最后一块尚未占领区域的野心。

“我相信接下来的六到九个月将是一个转折点，”比列茨基在哈尔科夫州东北部一个未公开的地下地点说道。

“更准确地说，我认为接下来的六场比赛最为关键，”他说。

谁控制顿涅茨克的问题一直是美国支持的和平谈判陷入僵局的绊脚石，俄罗斯想要控制整个地区，而乌克兰拒绝从莫斯科军队未能征服的领土上撤军。

“我们需要明确哪些方向可以改善我们的处境，夺取一些战略要点，然后以实力而非弱点与俄罗斯人谈判，达成真正稳定的停火协议，”比列茨基说道。他是一位右翼政治领导人，创建了身经百战的亚速营，现在指挥着数万名士兵。

“从军事角度来看，这是现实的。”

2026年5月21日，乌克兰武装部队第三军准将安德烈·比列茨基在乌克兰哈尔科夫州某处未公开地点。（托马斯·彼得/路透社）

俄罗斯国防部尚未就此事作出回应。俄罗斯总统普京曾誓言将在乌克兰取得胜利，并于本月表示他认为战争即将结束。

俄罗斯的进展因亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克决定禁止莫斯科军队使用其星链卫星互联网服务而变得更加复杂。与此同时，基辅加大了对俄罗斯防空系统和后勤设施的中程无人机袭击力度，这使得更多远程打击得以突破防线，袭击俄罗斯境内的石油和军事设施。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基上周表示，乌克兰已于2026年收复了近600平方公里（230平方英里）的领土。路透社无法独立核实这一数字。目前，莫斯科控制着乌克兰近五分之一的领土。

芬兰黑鸟冲突分析小组的约翰·赫林在评估军事形势时，与比列茨基的观点一致，认为疲劳是俄罗斯军队面临的一个问题，而乌克兰的战争努力则受到人力短缺的阻碍。

“看起来，今年过去四五个月后，俄罗斯人很可能会筋疲力尽，而乌克兰问题却不会发展到崩溃的地步，”他告诉路透社。

周一，总部位于美国的战争研究所表示，基辅的军队现在“正在积极挑战战争的阵地性质”，并且可能很快就能发动有限的机械化进攻。

俄罗斯军队正向乌克兰东部的“堡垒带”逼近，战斗在其南端的战略要地科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡市激烈进行。

这些戒备森严的城市群是乌克兰防御体系的基石。占领这些城市将使俄罗斯有能力威胁顿巴斯地区的其他地区。

比列茨基的部队控制着整个前线的十分之一以上，他说他的部队牢牢守住了斯拉维扬斯克（该地带的北部堡垒）周围的侧翼，迫使俄罗斯正面进攻该市。

他表示，这种代价高昂的进攻消耗了俄罗斯军队的兵力，导致一线指挥官损失惨重，他称之为莫斯科军队的专业水平下降。

“人员短缺使他们无法像一年前那样取得进展，”比列茨基说。

比列茨基表示，现在就从基辅最近的成功中得出结论还为时过早，但乌克兰可以通过继续进行中程攻击并“谨慎地”推进来利用这一成功。

比列茨基表示，由于马斯克对星链使用的打压，莫斯科在战场通信方面“彻底失败”。

但他表示，双方在不断发展的技术方面势均力敌——乌克兰在无人地面车辆（UGV）和重型轰炸无人机方面领先，而俄罗斯在光纤无人机竞赛中获胜，这种无人机无法被干扰。

他的军团是乌克兰军队现代化的一个潜在蓝图，他一直致力于改革训练方式，并将无人地面车辆等新技术融入战场战略，使其成为乌克兰军队现代化的重要蓝图。

比列茨基表示，他的部队在部署隐形自杀式无人机和配备机枪或火箭发射器的机器人方面处于领先地位，目标是到 2027 年取代 30% 的步兵。

比列茨基表示，下一次“革命”将使指挥官能够在节省宝贵兵力的同时，组织更具“创造性”的联合突击行动。

“今年一定会发生，我认为我们会向大家展示，我们的队伍就是最好的例证，”他说。