Danish Arctic chief expects High North arms race after Ukraine war

MILAN — The prospect of a conflict in the Arctic is rising, Denmark’s Arctic commander has warned, with the expectation of Russia turning its attention to the High North if and when the Ukraine war ends.

“My expectation is that when the war in Ukraine is over, Russia will devote its efforts to arming itself in the Arctic,” Maj. Gen. Søren Andersen, commander of Denmark’s Joint Arctic Command, said in an interview published this week by the Danish Armed Forces magazine Honnør.

The Arctic has become a geopolitical hotspot, primarily due to the impact of climate change on melting sea ice, which has made the region more accessible for shipping and resource extraction.

The Scandinavian country has ramped up its military presence to defend Greenland , an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark.

In June, as part of this broader military reinforcement and training exercises, Denmark deployed a frigate and two EH101 Merlin helicopters to Greenland, the aircraft’s first time there.

“Our Armed Forces have shown that we can deploy from Denmark to Greenland at short notice – one example is the Merlin rescue helicopters, which can fly from Karup Air Base to Nuuk in 13 hours. They’ve been absolutely crucial for the training there,” Andersen said.

The Arctic is one of the most challenging operational environments for militaries. The extreme weather conditions make flying and navigation difficult or altogether impossible, and the lack of infrastructure means there are few places to refuel or land in case of emergencies. In some situations, the only travel options are by dogsled or snowmobile.

The Danish commander argued that due to these challenges, more allies need to train in Greenland to gain exposure and grow accustomed to carrying out operations in tough settings.

Another area of concern is the remote Svalbard archipelago, located between mainland Norway, to which it belongs, and the North Pole.

A report published Nov. 27 by the Arctic Institute cautioned that Svalbard’s legal status and strategic position make it vulnerable as a potential site of confrontation if Russia decided to challenge “the status quo.”

The Svalbard Treaty bans the construction of significant military infrastructure or fortifications on the archipelago. The interpretation of this clause has been contested, and not all military activity is forbidden – Norway, for example, maintains a limited presence around Svalbard through its coast guard.

The Arctic Institute report notes that Moscow has amassed sizable combat capabilities relatively nearby.

“Russia has mustered a significant military force merely 260 kilometers from Svalbard, the Nagurskoye air base is its northernmost military base – since 2015, it has been transforming the old Soviet base to increase its capabilities,” the report stated.

Part of this reinforcement has included extending a runway in 2020 to accommodate a variety of military aircraft, such as MiG-31 and Su-34 fighter jets as well as Il-76 heavy transporters.

According to the report, Nagurskoye has shifted from being a seasonal military station to an operational base year-round that has on occasions hosted Moscow’s long-range bombers and served as a base camp for exercises.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——丹麦北极地区指挥官警告说，北极地区发生冲突的可能性正在上升，预计如果乌克兰战争结束，俄罗斯将把注意力转向北极地区。

“我预计，乌克兰战争结束后，俄罗斯将致力于在北极地区武装自己，”丹麦联合北极司令部司令索伦·安德森少将在本周丹麦武装部队杂志《Honnør》发表的采访中说道。

北极已成为地缘政治热点地区，这主要是由于气候变化导致海冰融化，使得该地区更容易进行航运和资源开采。

这个北欧国家加强了在格陵兰岛的军事存在，以保卫格陵兰岛——丹麦王国的自治领土。

6 月，作为这项更广泛的军事增援和训练演习的一部分，丹麦向格陵兰岛部署了一艘护卫舰和两架 EH101 梅林直升机，这是该型飞机首次抵达格陵兰岛。

安德森说：“我们的武装部队已经证明，我们可以在短时间内从丹麦部署到格陵兰岛——例如，梅林救援直升机可以在13小时内从卡鲁普空军基地飞抵努克。它们对那里的训练至关重要。”

北极是军队作战环境中最具挑战性的区域之一。极端恶劣的天气条件使得飞行和导航变得异常困难甚至完全不可能，而基础设施的匮乏意味着一旦发生紧急情况，几乎没有地方可以加油或降落。在某些情况下，唯一的出行方式只能是乘坐狗拉雪橇或雪地摩托。

丹麦指挥官认为，由于这些挑战，更多盟军需要在格陵兰岛进行训练，以获得经验并逐渐习惯在艰苦的环境中开展行动。

另一个令人担忧的地区是偏远的斯瓦尔巴群岛，它位于挪威大陆（它属于挪威）和北极之间。

北极研究所于 11 月 27 日发布的一份报告警告说，如果俄罗斯决定挑战“现状”，斯瓦尔巴群岛的法律地位和战略位置使其很容易成为潜在的对抗地点。

《斯瓦尔巴条约》禁止在斯瓦尔巴群岛上修建重要的军事基础设施或防御工事。该条款的解释一直存在争议，并非所有军事活动都被禁止——例如，挪威通过其海岸警卫队在斯瓦尔巴群岛附近保持着有限的存在。

北极研究所的报告指出，莫斯科在相对较近的地区积聚了相当可观的作战能力。

报告指出：“俄罗斯在距离斯瓦尔巴群岛仅 260 公里的地方集结了一支强大的军事力量，纳古尔斯科耶空军基地是其最北端的军事基地——自 2015 年以来，俄罗斯一直在改造这座旧苏联基地，以提高其作战能力。”

此次加固工程的一部分包括在 2020 年延长跑道，以容纳各种军用飞机，例如米格-31 和苏-34 战斗机以及伊尔-76 重型运输机。

报告称，纳古尔斯科耶已从一个季节性军事基地转变为一个全年运作的作战基地，有时会接待莫斯科的远程轰炸机，并作为演习的基地营地。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。