The Pentagon Envisions a Horrible and Dystopian Metropolis of the Future

Updated Jul 2, 2020 3:13 PM EDT

After spending nearly a decade fighting in urban terrain in Iraq and clandestine counter-terror operations around the globe under the auspices of the Global War on Terror, the Pentagon seems to view our urban combat of the future as very ominous indeed. The details of these challenges–and this gloomy vision of the future–are featured in a downright depressing video named “Megacities: Urban Future, the Emerging Complexity” that has been shown at the Joint Special Operations University.

The video was obtained via a FOIA request by The Intercept . In it, visuals of crowded urban sprawl, riots, poverty and military operations are splashed across the screen as a narrator somberly describes a hugely complex and tactically bankrupt combat environment of the future.

The Intercepts describes the video and its intended use:

The video was used as part of an “Advanced Special Operations Combating Terrorism” course offered at JSOU earlier this year, for a lesson on “The Emerging Terrorism Threat.” JSOU is operated by U.S. Special Operations Command, the umbrella organization for America’s most elite troops. JSOU describes itself as geared toward preparing special operations forces “to shape the future strategic environment by providing specialized joint professional military education, developing SOF specific undergraduate and graduate level academic programs and by fostering special operations research.”

Megacities are, by definition, urban areas with a population of 10 million or more, and they have been a recent source of worry and research for the U.S. military. A 2014 Army report, titled “Megacities and the United States Army,” warned that “the Army is currently unprepared. Although the Army has a long history of urban fighting, it has never dealt with an environment so complex and beyond the scope of its resources.” A separate Army study published this year bemoans the fact that the “U.S. Army is incapable of operating within the megacity.”

Here is the video in its entirety:

The piece goes on to describe megacities in great detail, including the unique and complex social structures that will propagate from high-rise penthouse dwellers all the way down to “subterranean labyrinths” governed by their own laws and social norms. Above all else, the video makes it clear that future cities will be breeding grounds for organized crime, cyber crime and terrorism. And apparently Special Operations Command doesn’t think it’s ready to do battle in the megacities of the future, with the narrator stating:

“Even our counterinsurgency doctrine, honed in the cities of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan, is inadequate to address the sheer scale of population in the future urban reality… We are facing environments that the masters of war never foresaw… We are facing a threat that requires us to redefine doctrine and the force in radically new and different ways.”

The whole affair is reminiscent of the opening sequence of the latest Judge Dredd movie, where the main character narrates over sweeping views of the concrete jungle of dystopic Megacity One–with flashes of social unrest and extreme urban decay woven in:

So what’s the deal here? Is this just the military industrial complex looking for another paper threat to cash in on, or is fighting in “megacities” something the Pentagon needs to start preparing for in a big way? I think the real answer is a mix of both.

As population increases and urban areas become both more dense and sprawling, certain tactical problems will become more pronounced than they already are during current MOUT (military operations in urban terrain). But this is not a whole new medium of combat operations as the video implies.

There’s nothing wrong with getting our best military minds thinking about how to negate tactical deficiencies of the future, the video seems to call for more than just that.

The US military spends billions a year on training its forces for MOUT. Countless fake villages and mock cities have been constructed at US military and allied bases around the globe, just for this purpose. Many of these installations even have role playing actors trained to fill out the civilian population. Some special operations units even get their very own elaborate MOUT training complexes tailored to specific mission sets. Not just that, but Special Operations Command regularly conducts elaborate drills in real metropolises around the US, often drawing fascination and ire of the local populous in the process.

Should America’s special operations forces do more of this type of near-real world training? It would make some sense, but some may argue that the US military should build its own metropolis for extreme MOUT training–high-rises and underground labyrinths included.

This is where the line between fantasy and necessity blurs. Building such a training complex would require a massive investment, and there are only so many resources to go around. The same training needs hold true for the missions and combat environments our soldiers are facing on the battlefields of today, not just those that may exist tomorrow.

As an alternative, the Pentagon could probably find some city blocks that are all but abandoned and adapt them for its training requirements. And besides, by the time there are megacities that really represent the threat the video plays them out to be, (if that ever truly occurs) virtual training will probably be up to the task of preparing our soldiers to do battle there successfully.

What are your thoughts on the video? Let us know in the conversation below.

Contact the author Tyler@thedrive.com

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更新于美国东部时间2020年7月2日下午3:13

在伊拉克城市作战近十年，并在全球反恐战争的框架下在全球范围内开展秘密反恐行动之后，五角大楼似乎对未来城市作战的前景感到非常担忧。这些挑战的细节，以及对未来黯淡的展望，都在一部名为《巨型城市：城市未来，日益复杂的局面》的令人沮丧的视频中有所体现，该视频已在联合特种作战大学放映。

这段视频是《拦截》杂志通过《信息自由法》申请获得的。视频中，拥挤的城市扩张、骚乱、贫困和军事行动的画面不断涌入屏幕，旁白则沉重地描述了未来极其复杂且战术上彻底失败的作战环境。

《拦截》杂志对这段视频及其预期用途进行了描述：

这段视频曾用于今年早些时候在联合特种作战学院（JSOU）开设的“高级特种作战反恐”课程，作为“新兴恐怖主义威胁”一课的教学材料。JSOU隶属于美国特种作战司令部，该司令部是美国最精锐部队的统筹机构。JSOU自称致力于通过提供专业的联合军事教育、开发特种作战部队专属的本科和研究生课程以及促进特种作战研究，来培养特种作战部队“塑造未来战略环境”。

特大城市，顾名思义，是指人口超过1000万的城市地区，近年来一直是美军关注和研究的焦点。2014年陆军一份题为《特大城市与美国陆军》的报告警告说，“陆军目前准备不足。尽管陆军拥有悠久的城市作战历史，但从未应对过如此复杂且超出其资源能力范围的环境。”今年发布的另一份陆军研究报告也指出，“美国陆军无力在特大城市中作战。”

以下是完整视频：

这段视频继续详细描述了特大城市，包括其独特而复杂的社会结构，这些结构将从高层公寓的居民一直延伸到由自身法律和社会规范支配的“地下迷宫”。最重要的是，视频明确指出，未来的城市将成为有组织犯罪、网络犯罪和恐怖主义的滋生地。显然，特种作战司令部认为自己还没有做好在未来特大城市作战的准备，旁白说道：

“即使是我们在伊拉克城市和阿富汗山区磨练出的反叛乱理论，也不足以应对未来城市现实中庞大的人口规模……我们正面临着战争大师们从未预料到的环境……我们正面临着一种威胁，这种威胁要求我们以全新的方式重新定义理论和部队。”

整件事让人想起最新一部《特警判官》电影的开场片段，主角在描绘反乌托邦式的巨型城市一号的混凝土丛林全景时进行旁白——其中穿插着社会动荡和极端城市衰败的片段：

所以，这到底是怎么回事？这仅仅是军工复合体为了牟利而捏造的另一个纸上威胁，还是五角大楼真的需要开始大规模地为在“特大城市”作战做准备？我认为真正的答案是两者兼而有之。

随着人口增长和城市地区日益密集扩张，某些战术问题在当前的城市作战中会比现在更加突出。但这并非像视频所暗示的那样，是一种全新的作战模式。

让最优秀的军事人才思考如何消除未来战术上的不足并没有错，但这段视频似乎呼吁的远不止于此。

美国军方每年花费数十亿美元用于城市作战（MOUT）训练。为此，美国及其盟军在全球各地的军事基地建造了无数模拟村庄和城市。许多此类设施甚至配备了经过训练的角色扮演演员，以扮演平民居民。一些特种作战部队甚至拥有专门定制的、针对特定任务的复杂城市作战训练基地。不仅如此，特种作战司令部还定期在美国各地的真实大都市进行大规模演习，这往往引起当地居民的好奇和不满。

美国的特种作战部队是否应该进行更多此类接近实战的训练？这在某种程度上是合理的，但有些人可能会认为，美军应该建造自己的“大都市”用于极端城市作战训练——包括高层建筑和地下迷宫。

正是在这里，幻想与现实的界限变得模糊不清。建造这样一个训练基地需要巨额投资，而资源终究有限。同样的训练需求不仅适用于未来可能出现的战场，也适用于我们士兵在当今战场上面临的任务和作战环境。

作为一种替代方案，五角大楼或许可以找到一些几乎废弃的城市街区，并将其改造为训练场地。而且，等到真正出现像视频中展现的那样具有威胁性的特大城市时（如果这种情况真的会发生），虚拟训练或许也足以让我们的士兵做好在那里作战的准备。

您对这段视频有什么看法？请在下方留言告诉我们。

联系作者：Tyler@thedrive.com

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