European militaries rush to catch up on space traffic mapping

PARIS — The boom in space activity of the past few years has made Earth’s orbit more crowded and dynamic, and Western militaries need to step up space awareness to counter growing threats in the domain, defense officials and space company executives said.

Commercial use of space now dwarfs the military, with thousands of new satellites joining potential menaces such as Russia’s roving Luch Olymp inspector satellite. Defense firms including Safran and space-data specialists such as True Anomaly and Vyoma see an opportunity to help defense departments adapt to the ever-growing volume of extraterrestrial activity, they said at an industry summit in Paris last week.

The number of active satellites in orbit has more than tripled in just four years, according to European Space Agency data. Most of the new space activity is happening in low Earth orbit, where agile spacecraft zip around at 27,500 kilometers per hour, while much of the surveillance by Western militaries is built on systems adapted to decades of tracking relatively static geostationary orbits.

“Space is becoming more and more challenged, more and more competitive, and we have to prepare for problems in the future,” Gen. Philippe Adam, the head of French Space Command, said at the Space Defense & Security Summit on Sept. 17.

In response, France’s Safran is adding ground stations to track satellite radio emissions, German firm Vyoma expects to launch its first telescope into low Earth orbit next year for visual reconnaissance, while Colorado-based True Anomaly in April won a U.S. Space Force contract for a maneuvering satellite that can take a close look at potential adversaries in various orbits.

Governments spent $58.4 billion on space defense and security in 2023, with $40.2 billion contracted to industry, according to industry consultant Novaspace, which organized the summit. Spending included $4 billion for space-domain awareness.

Space is “more and more congested and contested,” said Maj. Gen. Brian W. Gibson, director for plans and policy at U.S. Space Command. “It’s important for all of us, like any other domain, to make sure we don’t lose sight of our military responsibilities for protection and defense.”

Earth has around 10,200 active satellites in orbit, from around 3,000 in September 2020, according to an ESA count, with companies including SpaceX and Amazon planning many more. That’s in addition to more than 40,000 pieces of space debris circling Earth big enough to blast apart your typical satellite.

U.S. Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said last week space-domain awareness and counter-space capabilities are critical needs that require more resources in fiscal 2026, while the head of U.S. Space Command Gen. Stephen Whiting said Wednesday that current space tracking is insufficient for future conflict with countries fielding advanced space capabilities.

The U.S. is the biggest spender on space defense and security with $38.9 billion, followed by China and Russia, and France trails in fourth place with $1.3 billion, Novaspace says. Yet whereas defense dominated the first three decades of the Space Age, military payloads now make up a fraction of the total, according to the ESA data.

The European Union expects 50,000 more satellites to be launched in the next decade, mainly into low Earth orbit, or LEO, as cheaper rockets and the development of nanosatellites have made space accessible even to startup firms and universities. That only heightens the challenge of tracking space traffic and spotting bad actors, military leaders at the summit said.

The lack of a full picture of space and the absence of regulation create a “really, really high” probability of miscalculations that could potentially lead to crisis or even war, said Maj. Gen. Isaac Crespo Zaragoza, chief of staff of Spain’s Space Command. He said developing some degree of space awareness is a priority for the service.

“We have no map of space, it’s a drama for the military,” said Col. Ludovic Monnerat, head of space domain for the Swiss Armed Forces.

There’s so little available space-awareness data and so much demand that the market exceeds supply, according to Vyoma CEO Stefan Frey. His company will initially focus on tracking objects for military customers, before expanding beyond defense as its fleet grows to 10 or 12 satellites, Frey told Defense News.

The “new, very dynamic world” of agile satellites no longer allows for planning to take days, and the amount of unpredictable debris in orbit means the latency of observations needs to be reduced dramatically, Frey said. Vyoma will be able to spot most LEO objects every 45 minutes once its constellation is in place, according to the CEO, who said European militaries right now might be receiving observations every four to eight hours.

Space awareness is key to security and stability, and “clearly an area that needs to be invested in,” according to True Anomaly CEO Even Rogers. He expects a future where optical, radio and radar data from space and on the ground is fused into a “rapid, real-time picture of the environment so that operators can make good decisions.”

The challenge of low Earth orbit is the fast speed at which objects move, meaning reaction times of even two hours might be too slow, compared to maneuvers in geostationary orbit that might be planned days in advance, said Philippe de Mijolla, Safran vice-president of sales and marketing for satellite communications and space awareness.

Safran is expanding its network of ground-based radio antennas tracking geostationary objects to add data on low Earth orbits, the executive told Defense News. The company has been gathering experimental LEO data for nearly two months, and expects to start selling the data as part its WeTrack service early next year, he said.

Safran is growing the tracking network to 125 stations from 94, spread across France, the U.S., Thailand and Australia, though de Mijolla said he’ll happily ask his board to fund additional antennas if demand is there.

Militaries have to work with civilian and commercial operators to keep track of it all, according to Adam. “Their concern about security and safety is exactly the same as ours,” the general said. “Civilian or commercial integration is an essential part of our discussions right now.”

Civilian operators require better space-domain awareness to call out unacceptable behavior in orbit, from persistent jamming to a cyberattack or a close approach, said Rebecca Cowen-Hirsch, head of government strategy and policy at commercial operator Viasat, which faced of a cyberattack by Russia in February 2022 just before the invasion of Ukraine.

Switzerland’s Monnerat said space needs rules of behavior, and those endangering functionality and safety of orbits should be named and shamed. Safran’s de Mijolla said the ability to attribute hostile actions in space will be an active deterrent that can hopefully prevent conflict there, “something we all want to avoid.”

Governments already rely on industry for space awareness and response, with the U.S. awarding contracts to True Anomaly and Rocket Lab USA in April for rendezvous and proximity operations. Safran provides its radio-frequency monitoring data to countries including France, the U.S. and Switzerland.

France last week turned to local nanosatellite builder U-Space as a partner for t wo satellites in low Earth orbit , one to provide detailed data on nearby objects and another able to target them. That follows a contract for France’s Hemeria to build the Yoda patroller satellite for geostationary orbit. “We need to be up there to see what’s happening,” Adam said.

Orbital threats include multiple rendezvous and proximity operations, not only by Russia’s Luch Olymp, but also others, said Philippe Rosius, head of the Galileo Security Monitoring Centre within the EU Agency for the Space Programme. And there’s a daily threat of natural or man-made debris in space that threatens satellites, he said.

China and Russia are able to deploy anti-satellite weapons, while India and others have the capacity, Rosius said. Russia’s test in 2021 using a missile to destroy one of its own satellites generated more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital junk that may remain in orbit for decades, according to U.S. Space Command.

Kinetic weapons are the most dangerous and risk creating an unsustainable space environment, which is why the U.S. and some its allies have committed to not testing them there, said Rogers at True Anomaly. “You can’t win so well that you screw up the domain for future generations.” Adam said France wants to avoid putting kinetic weapons in space that would risk creating debris.

The EU in March presented the bloc’s first- ever strategy to protect its space assets, highlighting a need for near-real time monitoring and better capability to identify and attribute threats, citing the “highly political” nature of attributing a menace to a third country and deciding on a response.

“This is really key, to understand these threats, before being able to mitigate them and to take actions to continue operating in space in a safe and secure manner,” Rosius said. “Threats against the space system and the space environment will not cease, and will increase in the coming years. So we need to be ready to continue protecting our critical infrastructure.”

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

巴黎——国防官员和航天公司高管表示，过去几年太空活动的蓬勃发展使地球轨道更加拥挤和动态，西方军队需要加强太空意识，以应对该领域日益增长的威胁。

如今，太空的商业用途已远超军事用途，数以千计的新卫星正与俄罗斯的“奥林匹亚之光”巡视卫星等潜在威胁并存。上周在巴黎举行的一次行业峰会上，包括赛峰集团在内的国防企业以及True Anoma和Vyoma等太空数据专家表示，他们看到了帮助国防部门适应日益增长的外星活动的机遇。

根据欧洲航天局的数据，在轨运行的卫星数量在短短四年内增长了两倍多。大部分新增的太空活动都发生在近地轨道，那里灵活的航天器以每小时27500公里的速度高速运行；而西方军方的大部分监视活动则建立在几十年来一直用于跟踪相对静态地球同步轨道的系统之上。

“太空正变得越来越具有挑战性，竞争也越来越激烈，我们必须为未来的问题做好准备，”法国太空司令部司令菲利普·亚当将军在9月17日举行的太空防御与安全峰会上表示。

作为回应，法国赛峰集团正在增设地面站以跟踪卫星无线电辐射；德国维奥玛公司预计明年将首台望远镜送入近地轨道进行目视侦察；而总部位于科罗拉多州的True Anoma公司在4月份赢得了美国太空军的一份合同，用于制造一颗机动卫星，该卫星可以近距离观察不同轨道上的潜在对手。

据组织此次峰会的行业咨询公司Novaspace称，2023年各国政府在太空防御和安全方面的支出为584亿美元，其中402亿美元以合同形式授予了相关企业。这笔支出包括用于太空领域感知的40亿美元。

美国太空司令部计划与政策主任布莱恩·W·吉布森少将表示，太空“日益拥挤，竞争也日益激烈”。“对我们所有人来说，就像在其他任何领域一样，确保我们不忽视我们在保护和防御方面的军事责任至关重要。”

据欧洲航天局统计，目前地球轨道上约有10200颗在轨运行的卫星，而2020年9月这一数字约为3000颗。包括SpaceX和亚马逊在内的多家公司还计划发射更多卫星。此外，还有超过4万块太空碎片环绕地球运行，其体积足以摧毁一颗普通的卫星。

美国太空作战部长钱斯·萨尔茨曼将军上周表示，太空领域感知和反太空能力是关键需求，需要在 2026 财年投入更多资源；而美国太空司令部司令斯蒂芬·惠廷将军周三表示，目前的太空跟踪不足以应对未来与拥有先进太空能力的国家发生的冲突。

据Novaspace公司称，美国是太空防御和安全领域最大的支出国，投入达389亿美元，其次是中国和俄罗斯，法国以13亿美元位列第四。然而，根据欧洲航天局（ESA）的数据，尽管在太空时代的前三十年，国防用途占据主导地位，但如今军事有效载荷仅占总支出的一小部分。

欧盟预计未来十年将发射5万颗卫星，主要进入近地轨道（LEO）。火箭成本的降低和纳米卫星的发展使得太空探索对初创企业和大学等机构而言也变得触手可及。峰会上的军事领导人表示，这无疑加剧了追踪太空交通和识别恶意行为者的挑战。

西班牙太空司令部参谋长伊萨克·克雷斯波·萨拉戈萨少将表示，由于对太空缺乏全面了解且缺乏相关监管，极易导致误判，进而引发危机甚至战争。他指出，提升太空态势感知能力是该部门的当务之急。

“我们没有太空地图，这对军方来说是一场灾难，”瑞士武装部队太空领域负责人卢多维克·蒙内拉特上校说。

据Vyoma公司首席执行官斯特凡·弗雷 (Stefan Frey) 称，目前可用的太空感知数据非常有限，而需求却非常旺盛，导致市场供不应求。弗雷告诉《防务新闻》，他的公司最初将专注于为军方客户追踪目标，随着卫星数量增加到10到12颗，业务范围将扩展到国防领域之外。

弗雷表示，敏捷卫星所处的“全新且瞬息万变的世界”已不允许再花费数天时间进行规划，而且轨道上不可预测的碎片数量庞大，这意味着观测延迟必须大幅降低。据弗雷称，一旦Vyoma的卫星星座部署完毕，该公司将能够每45分钟探测到大多数低地球轨道（LEO）目标。他还表示，目前欧洲军方可能每4到8小时才能收到一次观测结果。

据True Anomaly首席执行官Even Rogers称，太空感知是安全与稳定的关键，也是“显然需要加大投入的领域”。他预计，未来来自太空和地面的光学、无线电和雷达数据将被融合，形成“环境的快速、实时图像，以便操作人员能够做出正确的决策”。

赛峰集团卫星通信和空间感知销售与市场营销副总裁菲利普·德·米约拉表示，近地轨道面临的挑战是物体移动速度很快，这意味着即使是两个小时的反应时间也可能太慢，而地球同步轨道上的机动可以提前几天计划。

赛峰集团一位高管告诉《防务新闻》，该公司正在扩展其地面无线电天线网络，用于追踪地球静止轨道物体，以增加近地轨道的数据。他表示，该公司已收集了近两个月的实验性近地轨道数据，预计将于明年初开始通过其WeTrack服务出售这些数据。

Safran公司正在将跟踪网络从94个站点扩展到125个站点，这些站点分布在法国、美国、泰国和澳大利亚。不过，德米约拉表示，如果需求增加，他很乐意要求董事会资助额外的天线。

亚当表示，军方必须与民用和商业运营商合作，才能全面掌握情况。“他们对安全保障的关注与我们完全一致，”这位将军说道。“民用或商业一体化是我们目前讨论的重要组成部分。”

商业运营商 Viasat 的政府战略和政策主管 Rebecca Cowen-Hirsch 表示，民用运营商需要更好的太空领域感知能力，才能指出轨道上不可接受的行为，从持续干扰到网络攻击或近距离接近。Viasat 在 2022 年 2 月，也就是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前，曾遭受过俄罗斯的网络攻击。

瑞士的莫内拉特表示，太空需要行为准则，那些危及轨道功能和安全的行为应该被点名谴责。赛峰集团的德米约拉表示，能够追究太空敌对行为的责任将是一种积极的威慑手段，有望防止太空冲突，“这是我们所有人都想避免的”。

各国政府已开始依赖工业界提供太空感知和应急响应服务。今年4月，美国分别与True Anomaly和Rocket Lab USA签订合同，开展交会和近距离探测作业。Safran公司则向包括法国、美国和瑞士在内的多个国家提供射频监测数据。

上周，法国与本土纳米卫星制造商U-Space公司合作，计划发射两颗近地轨道卫星，一颗用于提供附近天体的详细数据，另一颗则用于瞄准这些天体。此前，法国Hemeria公司已与法国签订合同，建造用于地球同步轨道的“尤达”巡逻卫星。“我们需要到那里去观察情况，”亚当说道。

欧盟空间计划署伽利略安全监控中心负责人菲利普·罗修斯表示，轨道威胁包括多次交会和近距离交会操作，不仅包括俄罗斯的“奥林匹亚之月”号卫星，也包括其他卫星。他还指出，太空中的自然或人为碎片每天都会对卫星构成威胁。

罗修斯表示，中国和俄罗斯有能力部署反卫星武器，而印度和其他国家也具备这种能力。据美国太空司令部称，俄罗斯在2021年进行的导弹试验摧毁了一颗本国卫星，产生了超过1500块可追踪的轨道垃圾，这些垃圾可能会在轨道上停留数十年。

True Anomaly公司的罗杰斯表示，动能武器是最危险的，而且有可能造成不可持续的太空环境，这就是为什么美国及其一些盟友承诺不在太空进行此类试验的原因。“你不能为了取得胜利而毁掉子孙后代的太空环境。”亚当说，法国希望避免在太空部署动能武器，以免造成太空碎片。

欧盟在 3 月份提出了该集团有史以来第一个保护其太空资产的战略，强调需要进行近乎实时的监测，并提高识别和归因威胁的能力，同时指出将威胁归咎于第三国并决定应对措施具有“高度政治性”。

罗修斯表示：“了解这些威胁至关重要，只有先了解它们，才能减轻威胁，并采取措施，以安全可靠的方式继续在太空运行。针对太空系统和太空环境的威胁不会停止，而且在未来几年还会增加。因此，我们需要做好准备，继续保护我们的关键基础设施。”

鲁迪·鲁伊滕贝格是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者。他的职业生涯始于彭博新闻社，拥有报道科技、大宗商品市场和政治方面的经验。