Saudis plan assault on Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold

Saudi Arabia is planning an offensive against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, with options being considered, including a coastal push to secure the Red Sea shipping route or an assault on multiple fronts, regional and Western officials told Reuters.

The operation, expected to be launched in the coming weeks, will be led by Yemeni forces on the ground, which are overseen by Riyadh, and supported by Saudi air strikes, according to six people with knowledge of the preparations.

While the US is already providing intelligence to support Riyadh’s operations in Yemen, and some regional and European nations are providing mainly defensive military aid to the kingdom, the Saudi allies aren’t expected to play a direct role in combat operations, said the people who requested anonymity to discuss security matters.

Saudi Arabia entered neighboring Yemen’s civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognized government, which the Houthis had driven out of the capital Sanaa. A truce agreed between the warring parties in 2022 largely held until this year, when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure in a spillover from the Iran war.

A key objective of the planned Saudi offensive, which hasn’t been previously reported, is aimed at reversing the rapid gains made by the Houthis last month when they advanced down the coast and seized control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to people with knowledge of the plans who include Gulf and Yemeni officials and Western diplomats.

The Saudis are considering two options for the assault, the Gulf and Yemeni officials said: either a narrowly focused attack around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive that also includes synchronized attacks on multiple fronts around Yemen, in the governorates of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized in the offensive, depending on the scale, the officials all said.

Spokespeople for the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment about the Saudi plans.

Bab el-Mandeb is the southern exit passage of the Red Sea, a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia that’s assumed even more importance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by the Iran conflict.

Riyadh has concluded it cannot enter new Yemeni peace negotiations with the Houthis while the militants remain in control of Bab el-Mandeb, giving them significant global leverage, the Western diplomats and Gulf official said.

The six people with knowledge of the Saudi preparations couldn’t give a precise timing for the launch of the offensive, with their estimates ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he expected an offensive to be narrowly focused and certainly more modest in scope than the Saudi-led operation in 2015 that sought to rout the militants.

“As much [as] they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb,” he added. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”

The Houthis have become Iran’s most formidable ally in the Middle East since Israel’s degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.

A Saudi-directed offensive against the group would mark a new flashpoint in a region engulfed by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel of Oct. 7, 2023, and the subsequent US-Israeli war on Iran.

TRUMP, TURKEY AND PAKISTAN

Washington, Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally, is providing military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, to support Saudi air operations in Yemen, according to one of the Western diplomats.

However, the extent of support may be limited. Reuters has previously reported that US President Donald Trump rebuffed requests by the de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman for direct military support such as air strikes.

Turkey and Pakistan, with whom Saudi Arabia signed a joint defense agreement last month, have provided military equipment that the kingdom is using in Yemen, Pakistani and regional officials said.

Last month, Pakistan sent four cargo planes with equipment including air defense systems, light artillery, drones and anti-drone systems to Aden, the seat of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, a Pakistani government official said.

Pakistani military advisers are also on the ground with Saudi counterparts to support Yemeni forces, according to a second Pakistani official, the Gulf official and a Western diplomat. Turkish drones, bought by Saudi Arabia before the current war, have also been deployed over Yemen, they added.

One of the kingdom’s key concerns in launching a new offensive in Yemen is how to protect its oil facilities and other infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks, according to regional officials who said Riyadh has asked several allies for help with defensive systems.

Pakistan has deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to help defend the kingdom’s land borders and help with drone and missile interceptions, according to the second Pakistani official, who said the troops arrived in waves beginning last year but also after the recent escalation. Islamabad hasn’t made any decision to send troops into Yemen in a fighting capacity, the official said.

The Pakistani and Turkish defense ministries didn’t respond to requests for comment on their military support for Riyadh.

France, meanwhile, has announced it will send defensive systems and troops to Saudi Arabia to help protect the Red Sea port ‌city of Yanbu.

FRACTURED YEMENI FORCES

Any ground operation inside Yemen will rely on the disparate coalition of Yemeni fighting factions that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates armed and trained at earlier stages of the civil war when the conflict ground to a bloody stalemate.

“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organized or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once,” said Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha.

Yemeni forces were further fractured last winter when southern fighters backed by the UAE tried to take territory in the east and announce secession plans, leading to their defeat by Saudi-backed fighters after a series of clashes.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst close to government thinking, cautioned that the outcome of any offensive by the Saudis against the Houthis would depend on how ground forces perform.

“The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”

据路透社报道，地区和西方官员表示，沙特阿拉伯正计划对也门境内受伊朗支持的胡塞武装分子发动攻势，正在考虑多种方案，包括沿海岸线推进以确保红海航运通道的安全，或从多个方向发起进攻。

据六位了解准备工作的人士透露，此次行动预计将在未来几周内展开，由也门地面部队领导，并由利雅得监督，同时得到沙特空袭的支持。

据要求匿名讨论安全问题的人士称，虽然美国已经向利雅得提供情报以支持其在也门的行动，一些地区和欧洲国家也主要向沙特王国提供防御性军事援助，但预计沙特的盟友不会在作战行动中发挥直接作用。

2015年，沙特阿拉伯领导阿拉伯联军介入邻国也门内战，支持被胡塞武装驱逐出首都萨那的国际社会承认的也门政府。交战各方于2022年达成的停火协议基本维持到今年，但胡塞武装在伊朗战争的余波中，对沙特航运和石油基础设施发动了导弹和无人机袭击。

据知情人士透露，沙特计划发动的这次攻势（此前未曾报道）的一个关键目标是扭转胡塞武装上个月沿海岸线推进并控制曼德海峡的迅速进展。这些知情人士包括海湾国家和也门官员以及西方外交官。

海湾和也门官员表示，沙特正在考虑两种进攻方案：要么集中攻击曼德海峡附近地区，要么发起更广泛的攻势，包括在也门周边多个战线（如贝达省、马里卜省、塔伊兹省和焦夫省）同时发动攻击。

官员们一致表示，根据攻势规模，也门可能会动员超过 10 万名士兵参与此次攻势。

沙特阿拉伯和也门政府、胡塞武装和美国军方的发言人均未立即回应有关沙特计划的置评请求。

曼德海峡是红海的南出口，是地中海和亚洲之间的一条重要航运路线，今年由于伊朗冲突导致霍尔木兹海峡实际上已经关闭，曼德海峡作为替代路线变得更加重要。

西方外交官和海湾官员表示，利雅得方面已得出结论，只要胡塞武装分子继续控制曼德海峡，使其拥有重要的全球影响力，就无法与胡塞武装展开新的也门和平谈判。

六位了解沙特准备工作的人士无法给出发动进攻的确切时间，他们的估计从一周内到 11 月初美国中期选举之后不等。

美国前驻沙特阿拉伯大使迈克尔·拉特尼表示，他预计此次攻势将目标较为狭窄，规模肯定比 2015 年沙特领导的旨在剿灭武装分子的行动要小得多。

他补充说：“尽管他们很想彻底消灭胡塞武装，但他们也需要恢复到胡塞武装控制曼德海峡沿岸地区之前的状态。理想情况下，这将是一次规模较小的行动，旨在收复沿海地区并恢复正常的海上交通。”

过去三年，以色列削弱了黎巴嫩真主党，胡塞武装因此成为伊朗在中东最强大的盟友。

如果沙特阿拉伯对该组织发动进攻，将标志着自 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯领导的袭击以色列以及随后美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争以来，该地区一直处于冲突之中，而沙特领导的对该组织的进攻将标志着该地区出现新的冲突爆发点。

特朗普、土耳其和巴基斯坦

据一位西方外交官透露，沙特阿拉伯最强大的盟友华盛顿正在向沙特提供军事顾问和情报，包括目标信息，以支持沙特在也门的空中行动。

然而，这种支持的程度可能有限。路透社此前报道称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了沙特实际统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼提出的直接军事援助请求，例如空袭。

巴基斯坦和地区官员表示，土耳其和巴基斯坦（沙特阿拉伯上个月与两国签署了联合防御协议）向沙特阿拉伯提供了该国在也门使用的军事装备。

巴基斯坦政府一名官员表示，上个月，巴基斯坦向也门沙特支持的政府所在地亚丁运送了四架货机，机上载有防空系统、轻型火炮、无人机和反无人机系统等装备。

据一位巴基斯坦官员、一位海湾官员和一位西方外交官透露，巴基斯坦军事顾问也已与沙特同行一同部署在也门，为也门军队提供支持。他们还补充说，沙特阿拉伯在战争爆发前购买的土耳其无人机也已部署在也门上空。

据地区官员称，沙特阿拉伯王国在也门发动新攻势的主要担忧之一是如何保护其石油设施和其他基础设施免受胡塞武装无人机和导弹袭击。利雅得已向几个盟友请求提供防御系统方面的帮助。

据第二位巴基斯坦官员透露，巴基斯坦已向沙特阿拉伯部署了3万至4万名士兵，以帮助保卫沙特陆地边界并协助拦截无人机和导弹。该官员表示，这些部队从去年开始分批抵达，最近局势升级后也继续增派。这位官员还表示，伊斯兰堡尚未决定向也门派遣作战部队。

巴基斯坦和土耳其国防部均未回应有关其对利雅得提供军事支持的置评请求。

与此同时，法国宣布将向沙特阿拉伯派遣防御系统和军队，以帮助保护红海港口城市延布。

也门分裂势力

在也门境内进行的任何地面行动都将依赖于也门各派武装力量组成的联盟，这些武装力量是在内战早期陷入血腥僵局时由沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国武装和训练的。

也门问题分析人士穆罕默德·阿尔巴沙表示：“许多反胡塞武装力量仍然组织不力，也没有做好应对持续进攻的准备，而这种进攻对于击退一支训练有素的胡塞武装至关重要。他们现在正面临考验，因为胡塞武装正在多个战线同时施压。”

去年冬天，也门军队进一步分裂，阿联酋支持的南方武装试图占领东部地区并宣布分裂计划，结果在一系列冲突后被沙特阿拉伯支持的武装击败。

与沙特政府思路密切相关的沙特政治分析家阿里·希哈比警告说，沙特对胡塞武装的任何进攻结果都将取决于地面部队的表现。

“目前的首要任务是守住阵地，稳定前线，但他们肯定会转入进攻，”他说。“能否成功很大程度上取决于地方部队的作战质量。”