Ex-PM says Putin cannot admit ‘mistake’ over Ukraine as he bets on war of attrition

Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov claims President Putin won't admit his Ukraine invasion was a mistake and is unlikely to end the conflict soon.

Rising oil prices and divisions between the US and Europe embolden Putin, who believes he can continue the war without concessions.

Kasyanov suggests Western nations should resist Putin's provocations, as he merely wants respect rather than preparing for open war with Europe.

PARIS, Oct 4 — Despite growing economic trouble and rising unease among ordinary Russians and the elite, President Vladimir Putin is not ready to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, his former prime minister said yesterday.

Speaking to AFP in an interview, Mikhail Kasyanov, Russia’s prime minister from 2000 to 2004, said he believed his former boss understood he had made a mistake by invading Ukraine in 2022 but would persist with the course he had set.

“He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,” Kasyanov, 68, said in Paris. “He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak.”

The former prime minister said he was not convinced the war would end next year, adding that Putin was buoyed by high oil prices resulting from the US-Iran conflict and by disagreements between the United States and Europe over how to deal with the Kremlin on Ukraine.

“Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee,” Kasyanov said. “He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.”

He warned that the coming winter could be particularly brutal for Ukraine, urging Western countries to apply “psychological pressure on the Kremlin” by closing ranks and urgently supply Kyiv with Patriot missile interceptors to protect skies from intensifying Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure.

Putin, a former KGB agent who turns 74 on Wednesday, has insisted that millions of Russians support Moscow’s war. Last month his ruling party won a record supermajority in elections that critics said were tightly controlled, with Putin portraying the vote as a show of support for the hostilities.

Kasyanov, who left Russia in 2022, lives in exile in Riga. In 2023, Moscow designated him a “foreign agent”, a term reminiscent of the Soviet-era label “enemy of the people”.

The Kremlin critic said he remained in contact with some members of Russia’s ruling elite.

“Fear reigns there — I am talking about the ruling class.

“Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does,” he said.

“The difference lies in what kind of ending people want: some want the war to end in victory, some want it to end in Putin’s defeat, and others simply want it to stop, regardless of the outcome.”

Among ordinary Russians, Kasyanov said he saw “no grounds for a revolt”, despite mounting war casualties and rising food prices.

“Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years,” he said. “They have grown accustomed to putting up with it.”

But a new wave of large-scale military mobilisations could trigger street protests, he added.

Speaking on the sidelines of a conference organised by the Paris-based association Russie-Libertes for anti-Putin exiles, Kasyanov said Russia had become “practically totalitarian” over the past few years.

“There is a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society,” he said. “People are retreating into their own families, while negative feelings toward one another grow.”

After being dismissed by Putin, Kasyanov joined the opposition and became one of the Kremlin’s most vocal critics. Like many others, the start and duration of the war were a shock for him. Kasyanov told AFP in 2022 that the war could last about two years.

After the Kremlin chief on Thursday said Russia would consider using “all types of weapons” if its exclave of Kaliningrad were attacked, Kasyanov said Western countries should not be intimidated by Putin’s sabre-rattling.

“The West’s and Europeans’ biggest mistake is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he appears,” Kasyanov told a packed audience in Paris.

“Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans do.”

Kasyanov suggested that Putin wants foreigners to believe that “he is a psychopath” when in reality he is simply a “highly calculating cynic”.

“And he is raising the stakes in the game.”

Kasyanov said that with an increase in “hybrid attacks” Putin was provoking the West into taking measures that he could then exploit.

“He is a provocateur,” he added. “The only modus operandi he understands is the one he learned at the KGB academy. He told me that himself.”

But, Kasyanov said, he did not believe Putin was preparing for open war with Europe.

“What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him.” — AFP

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俄罗斯前总理米哈伊尔·卡西亚诺夫声称，普京总统不会承认入侵乌克兰是个错误，而且不太可能很快结束冲突。

石油价格上涨以及美国和欧洲之间的分歧让普京更加胆大妄为，他认为他可以在不做出任何让步的情况下继续战争。

卡西亚诺夫认为西方国家应该抵制普京的挑衅，因为他只是想要获得尊重，而不是准备与欧洲开战。

巴黎，10 月 4 日——尽管经济困境日益加剧，普通俄罗斯民众和精英阶层的不安情绪也在不断上升，但俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京仍未准备好就结束乌克兰战争进行谈判，他的前总理昨天表示。

俄罗斯前总理米哈伊尔·卡西亚诺夫在接受法新社采访时表示，他相信他的前任上司明白自己在2022年入侵乌克兰是个错误，但他会坚持自己设定的路线。

“他犯了一个自己不愿承认的错误，”68岁的卡西亚诺夫在巴黎说。“他相信了安全部门的报告，认为乌克兰很弱。”

这位前总理表示，他并不确信这场战争会在明年结束，并补充说，由于美伊冲突导致油价高企，以及美国和欧洲在如何处理乌克兰问题上与克里姆林宫存在分歧，普京的信心受到了鼓舞。

“普京当然会暗自窃喜，”卡西亚诺夫说。“他显然认为自己可以不做出任何让步就继续这场战争。而且他坚信自己正在赢得这场针对乌克兰的消耗战。”

他警告说，即将到来的冬天对乌克兰来说可能格外残酷，敦促西方国家团结起来，对克里姆林宫施加“心理压力”，并紧急向基辅提供爱国者导弹拦截器，以保护领空免受俄罗斯日益频繁的对民用基础设施的袭击。

普京曾是克格勃特工，周三将迎来74岁生日。他坚称数百万俄罗斯人支持莫斯科的战争。上个月，他的执政党在选举中赢得了创纪录的绝对多数席位，批评人士称此次选举受到严密控制，而普京则将此次投票描述为对敌对行动的支持。

卡西亚诺夫于2022年离开俄罗斯，目前流亡在里加。2023年，莫斯科将他列为“外国代理人”，这一称谓让人想起苏联时期“人民公敌”的标签。

这位克里姆林宫批评人士表示，他仍然与俄罗斯统治精英的一些成员保持联系。

“那里恐惧笼罩着一切——我指的是统治阶级。”

“每个人都希望战争结束。绝大多数人都希望如此，”他说。

“区别在于人们想要什么样的结局：有些人希望战争以胜利告终，有些人希望战争以普京的失败告终，而另一些人则只是希望战争停止，无论结果如何。”

卡西亚诺夫表示，尽管战争伤亡不断增加，食品价格上涨，但在普通俄罗斯民众中，他“看不到任何起义的理由”。

他说：“俄罗斯人过去30年来一直生活在高通胀之中，他们已经习惯了忍受这种情况。”

但他补充说，新一轮大规模军事动员可能会引发街头抗议。

卡西亚诺夫在巴黎反普京流亡者协会“俄罗斯自由”组织的一次会议间隙发表讲话时表示，俄罗斯在过去几年里已经变得“实际上极权主义”。

他说：“社会上弥漫着一种宿命论、敌意和严重的紧张气氛。人们都躲进自己的家庭里，而彼此之间的负面情绪却在增长。”

被普京解职后，卡西亚诺夫加入反对派，成为克里姆林宫最直言不讳的批评者之一。和许多人一样，战争的爆发和持续时间令他感到震惊。卡西亚诺夫在2022年接受法新社采访时表示，这场战争可能会持续两年左右。

周四，克里姆林宫领导人表示，如果俄罗斯的飞地加里宁格勒遭到攻击，俄罗斯将考虑使用“所有类型的武器”。对此，卡西亚诺夫表示，西方国家不应被普京的武力威胁吓倒。

“西方和欧洲人最大的错误就是他们太害怕普京了。他并不像看起来那么强大，”卡西亚诺夫在巴黎对座无虚席的听众说道。

“普京对核按钮的恐惧比许多欧洲人还要强烈。”

卡西亚诺夫认为，普京想让外国人相信“他是一个精神病患者”，而实际上他只是一个“精于算计的愤世嫉俗者”。

“他正在提高这场游戏的赌注。”

卡西亚诺夫表示，普京通过增加“混合攻击”来挑衅西方，迫使其采取措施，以便普京能够利用这些措施。

“他是个挑衅者，”他补充道。“他唯一懂得的行事方式就是他在克格勃学院学到的那一套。他亲口告诉我的。”

但卡西亚诺夫表示，他不认为普京正在准备与欧洲开战。

“普京想要的是尊重。他想强迫整个欧洲都尊重他。”——法新社

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