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Russian Satellite’s Unprecedented Shadowing Of A Very Particular Radar Imaging Satellite Is A Big Deal

Russia's Kosmos 2612 came very close to ICEYE X36, which reportedly has Ukraine connections, after weeks of highly unusual maneuvering.

TWZJoseph Trevithick, Howard Altman2026-10-19 17:38查看原文 ↗

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How Much Junk Is There In Space? | Earth Science

By Joseph Trevithick , Howard Altman

Published Oct 19, 2026 5:38 PM EDT

A Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, may have passed within approximately 85 feet (26 meters) of a U.S.-registered satellite belonging to commercial imagery provider ICEYE . This would be an extraordinarily close and potentially dangerous pass-by for two objects in space traveling at thousands of miles per hour. For weeks beforehand, ICEYE-X36, which would be of special interest to Russia , had already found itself in increasingly close orbital alignment with its pursuer. The two satellites now look to be drifting further and further apart, but the episode has been a clear sign of what is to come as the potential for conflict in space only continues to grow .

Publicly available space tracking data from the satellitemap.space and orbitalradar.com websites show that Kosmos 2612 (also written sometimes Cosmos 2612 and abbreviated K2612) and ICEYE X36 had their especially close encounter at approximately 16:07 UTC today . Private space services company LeoLabs also told TWZ today that it could not “confirm or contradict what other data sources have stated publicly,” but that it has “high-confidence that the objects came within approximately [emphasis in the original] 500 meters [1,640 feet] of each other.” Kosmos 2612 (also written sometimes Cosmos 2612 and abbreviated K2612) had been making progressively closer passes by ICEYE X36 in recent days.

Short time-lapse of part of this morning’s first pass of ICEYE-X36 (59103) and COSMOS 2612 (68762) over South America under partly cloudy skies. pic.twitter.com/t8RhwmKcV4 — s2a systems (@s2a_systems) October 18, 2026

Short time-lapse of part of this morning’s first pass of ICEYE-X36 (59103) and COSMOS 2612 (68762) over South America under partly cloudy skies. pic.twitter.com/t8RhwmKcV4

6/x Note that while ICEYE-X36 was Finnish built, it is (like other ICEYE sats who's ownership transferred) no longer Finnish. It is registered in the US but might be Ukranian owned/leased now. — Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) October 17, 2026

6/x Note that while ICEYE-X36 was Finnish built, it is (like other ICEYE sats who's ownership transferred) no longer Finnish. It is registered in the US but might be Ukranian owned/leased now.

“COSMOS 2612 closed from hundreds of kilometers away to extreme proximity to ICEYE-X36. It then maneuvered around ICEYE-X36, remained nearby for an extended period, and then began moving away,” LeoLabs also stated in a report assessing the situation, which was updated today and provided to TWZ . “The latest observations show the spacecraft strongly diverging and confirm that the close-proximity activity had ended.”

LeoLabs’ broader assessment here is supported by data from other publicly available sources, as seen below.

UPDATE: Cosmos 2612 appears to have maneuvered following a close approach with the ICEYE satellite. The latest TLEs show 2612 in a larger orbit that will drift away with no further maneuvers. In this animation, I fit an impulsive burn to bridge 2612’s previous TLE to its most… https://t.co/owzTZiijka pic.twitter.com/RBqGDvVH9H — Adam Cohen (@AdamCohen8) October 18, 2026

None of the distances stated earlier may seem especially close, let alone worrisome, by terrestrial standards. However, this is absolutely abnormal for operations in space that are not being directly coordinated by the parties involved. As a point of reference, in 2020, another Russian satellite, Kosmos 2542, came within 150 to 300 kilometers (93 to 186 miles) of USA 245, a KH-11 spy satellite, and became a major international news story .

“We are aware of the situation and tracking it closely,” a spokesperson for ICEYE’s U.S.-based division told TWZ this morning. “Our constellation architecture is designed for continuity and resilience.”

ICEYE was founded in Finland, but now has offices globally. The company specializes in providing imagery via synthetic aperture radar (SAR) from satellites like ICEYE X36, which was launched in 2024.

SAR has the benefit of being able to capture images day or night, and regardless of bad weather or other obscurants like heavy smoke. There are trade-offs in terms of the kinds of details typically visible via SAR compared to what is seen in visual spectrum imagery. Ukrainian authorities have been utilizing ICEYE imagery for years now , including for targeting purposes , as part of the ongoing conflict with Russia. There have been reports in the past that ICEYE X36 has been operating more directly under the control of the Ukrainian government, but this has not been confirmed.

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (better known by the acronym GUR) previously released this SAR image of the highly strategic Kerch Bridge that links the occupied Crimean Peninsula to undisputed Russian territory, which it said came via ICEYE. GUR

Kosmos 2612 is one of six satellites (Cosmos 2609 through Cosmos 2614) the Russian military launched via a single Soyuz-2.1b rocket on April 17. The exact purpose and configuration of these satellites are unconfirmed. However, they appear to be so-called inspector types capable of rendezvousing and maneuvering close to other objects in space. We will come back to this later on.

What is clear is that Kosmos 2612 has spent the past three weeks deliberately maneuvering to extremely closely shadow ICEYE X36.

“Over two weeks beginning on September 30, 2026, Cosmos 2612 executed a series of new maneuvers that brought it back into coplanar alignment and placed it at nearly the same altitude as the commercial satellite,” Clayton Swope, Deputy Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank in Washington, D.C., along with Research Assistant Chantal Li, wrote in an analysis of the situation just last Thursday.

“According to current orbital elements, the Russian #KOSMOS 2612 satellite is now within 1-2 km [0.6 miles to 1.2 miles] of #ICEYE-X36,” Dr. Marco Langbroek, currently a lecturer on Space Situational Awareness at the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering of Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, wrote in a thread on X on Saturday. “Based on current elements, it might come within meters of the latter within a few hours from now. This is an #RPO [ rendezvous and proximity operation ] without consent.”

2/x Initially I was skeptic whether #ICEYEX36 really was an intentional target: but a series of manoeuvers by #Kosmos2612 starting on Sept 30, were clearly designed to bring the two objects very close and synchronise their orbital periods, orbital altitude and eccentricity: pic.twitter.com/BhIoi8Rtbe — Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) October 17, 2026

“New TLEs [two-line elements] show that K2612 made a manuever [sic] on Oct 16 and is now stationkeeping within 5 km [3.1 miles] or less of ICEYE X36,” Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist and astronomer, who previously worked for the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and has long been tracking objects of interest in orbit, also wrote in a series of posts on X on Saturday. “To my knowledge this is the first LEO [low Earth orbit] rendezvous of two active satellites where the owner of one of the sats did not give approval.”

McDowell later clarified that “close passes” of objects in orbit had certainly occurred previously, “but not I think rendezvous [sic] (matching velocity vector).”

“This is the most advanced and potentially dangerous uncooperative RPO we’ve observed,” Adam Marsh, LeoLabs vice president for technical solutions, separately told Breaking Defense .

Unprecedented orbital maneuvering

As underscored by the previous interaction of Kosmos 2542 and USA 245, close shadowing of satellites in orbit is certainly nothing new. The U.S. government, as well as Russia and others, have been observed engaging in this kind of activity in the past. At the same time, just how close Kosmos 2612 got to ICEYE X36, and how long they spent in close alignment, are, at the very least, highly unusual.

“It’s important to note that ‘red’ on ‘blue’ engagements, such as this, are relatively uncommon in Low Earth Orbit (LEO),” LeoLabs’ report points out. At the same time, “this was not a routine conjunction or ‘fly by.’ The sequence included a controlled approach, changes in relative position, close-proximity loitering, additional small maneuvers, and a controlled departure. The behavior is consistent with sophisticated rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO).”

On top of this, there are other signs that what just happened between Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36 may follow a Russian playbook of sorts that could also be used in a prelude to an on-orbit anti-satellite attack.

Within weeks of their launch in April, Kosmos 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613, and 2614 had all moved orbital planes shared by multiple ICEYE satellites. Three of them subsequently made close passes by ICEYE X36, specifically, but none of them initially kept station with it. ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski did say “the company later moved its satellite, prompting further Russian manoeuvres [sic],” according to a story Reuters published last week.

🛰️ Russian satellites approaching ICEYE: a closer look at the timeline. Tracking data via @LeoLabs_Space . Analysis via COMSPOC SSA. On April 16, Russia launched six maneuverable satellites (Cosmos 2609-2614) from Plesetsk. Five of them — Cosmos 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613, and 2614… pic.twitter.com/ISoToOptnp — COMSPOC_OPS (@COMSPOC_OPS) July 15, 2026

To take a step even further back, before Kosmos 2542 was caught shadowing USA 245 in 2020, there were reports that the U.S. spy satellite had shifted its orbit. This was possibly prompted by the movements of another Russian ‘inspector,’ Kosmos 2543. This does not appear to have ever been confirmed.

While in space, Kosmos 2542 had deployed Kosmos 2543 in November 2019. Then, on July 23, 2020, the U.S. military said that it had detected Kosmos 2543 itself launching a smaller object in what it described as a test of a space-based anti-satellite weapon . In a subsequent interview with Time , then-Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond, U.S. Space Force’s top uniformed officer, disclosed that American forces had first observed Russian “nesting doll” satellites – a reference to traditional Russian matryoshka dolls – similarly demonstrating the “characteristics of a weapon system” in 2017.

U.S. officials have been warning for years that Russia’s growing array of inspector-type satellites , ostensibly designed to examine other assets the country has in orbit if they break down or otherwise malfunction, are inherently dual-purpose in nature. Beyond launching projectiles, a host of other modes of attack, kinetic and non-kinetic, are enabled by the underlying ability of a spacecraft to maneuver very close to other objects in orbit and hold that position. This includes the use of grappling arms to cause damage or just tow a satellite out of orbit, spraying aerosols to harm or impair optics and solar panels, and electronic warfare jamming. A satellite could turn out to be the weapon itself, becoming a kinetic interceptor that smashes into its target on command.

A U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency graphic highlighting some of the ways on-orbit attack can be carried out. DIA

One satellite shadowing another closely in orbit allows various kinds of intelligence gathering, as well. Collection of imagery and signal emissions can offer valuable details about a target’s capabilities and vulnerabilities, as s well as how it is being used in a particular context.

“As observed by LeoLabs Global Radar Network and analyzed by our team, COSMOS 2612 demonstrated a sequence of capabilities that could be used to inspect, characterize, shadow, or potentially interfere with another spacecraft,” according to LeoLabs’ report. “These actions require planning, maneuverability, precise navigation, and significant fuel. They may also indicate the use of onboard sensors capable of measuring the relative position of another spacecraft.”

What has just transpired between Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36 highlights how just a viable threat of attack can be disruptive in its own right. Simply forcing an imagery-gathering satellite out of position could prevent it from collecting over an intended area, or at least doing so in the most effective manner.

Furthermore, satellites only have a limited amount of fuel with which to maneuver in any way after reaching orbit. Harassment in space that forces them to burn off that finite resource at a higher-than-expected rate could reduce their total operational life expectancy, as well as further limit their effectiveness and make them more vulnerable to attacks or accidents. Debris in space is a steadily growing hazard that satellites increasingly need to dodge.

The United States, among others, has been actively pursuing on-orbit refueling capabilities to help address these issues. Last month, American officials also made the bombshell admission that there are unspecified U.S. weapon systems in orbit now, ostensibly for defensive purposes amid growing threats from Russia, as well as China . Both of those countries, among others, have been actively developing and fielding various anti-satellite capabilities inside and out of the Earth’s atmosphere .

“We can only speculate about the operation’s goal, but it could have been anything from simply intimidation to outright destruction or sabotage of a U.S.-registered satellite,” CSIS’ Clayton Swope told TWZ directly today in light of the new developments regarding Kosmos 2612 and ICEYE X36. “Perhaps the operation is on hold. There are, however, several other satellites that shadowed ICEYE X36 back in May that could be brought in[to] action too.”

Attribution and broader ramifications

It is important to point out that space, as a domain, inherently creates complications when it comes to attributing any form of attack , should one occur. Satellites do suffer mishaps, sometimes with catastrophic results, the causes of which are not always clear.

Just in January, a Russian inspector satellite launched in 2014 appeared to break up unexpectedly. Sometime around the end of July, the Chinese reconnaissance satellite Yaogan 50-02 , which had only been launched some four months earlier, also broke up in orbit. On Sept. 13, a similar fate befell the U.S. Cold War-era Farrah III spy satellite , also known as USA 32. At the time of writing, no firm evidence has emerged to indicate any of these incidents were the result of hostile action rather than accidents of some kind.

Update: Debris from active PRC satellite Yaogan 50-02. @S4S_SDA has now cataloged 62 pieces of debris originating from the PRC's active Yaogan 50-02 satellite (68196 / 2026-051A) on around 20 July 2026 (ref my initial analysis on Substack, link in thread). In spite of the… pic.twitter.com/1ecF68W8VQ — Space Domain Awareness (@shell_jim) October 12, 2026

Some recordings of USA 32 (#19460), whose fragmentation in LEO on 13 Sep 2026 at approximately 2113 UTC was confirmed by U.S. Space Forces–Space (S4S). By the time of the recordings, a large number of fragments had already dispersed over a wide section of the track. pic.twitter.com/gjRxCTPz2o — s2a systems (@s2a_systems) September 16, 2026

“While the intention behind COSMOS 2612’s behavior remains uncertain, the deliberate nature of the activity, the fuel required to conduct this activity, and the proximity to a Western commercial imaging satellite make the event strategically important,” LeoLab’s report notes. “This event, and the capabilities demonstrated, do not establish hostile intent. It does, however, demonstrate capabilities that could support intelligence collection, on-orbit inspection, coercive signaling, interference, or preparation for future counterspace operations.”

It is very possible, if not highly probable, that Kosmos 2612’s recent activities will be indicative of a trend going forward. Aggressive and potentially dangerous maneuvering by armed forces in close proximity to each other is not uncommon within the atmosphere, especially in the air and at sea . Extending a variation on those tactics into the space domain would make sense, especially given the central role that capabilities in orbit increasingly play in modern military operations globally. Those roles extend to early warning, general intelligence gathering, weapons guidance, near-real-time communications, and beyond.

American officials have already said in the past that American assets in space are routinely the target of “reversible attacks,” meaning ones that do not cause permanent damage. That also speaks to the difficulty of attribution if there is no lasting effect or impact to draw attention to.

The U.S. government’s long-time monopoly on the space domain has also been steadily eroding in recent years , especially in light of China’s massive expansion of its intelligence-gathering and other satellite constellations. The scale and scope of what commercial satellite imagery and other space services providers, like ICEYE, offer today have led to a further democratization of space-based capabilities to countries like Ukraine that do not possess significant, if any, constellations of their own.

This satellite image indicating multiple Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers having been damaged or destroyed at Belaya Air Base after a Ukrainian strike last year is indicative of what ICEYE provides commercially. Courtesy ICEYE

All of this, in turn, has increasingly driven the U.S. military, specifically, to plan for more proactive operations and potential direct conflict in orbit to ensure it retains its edge going forward. The aforementioned disclosure of U.S. on-orbit weapons is indicative of those developments and an accompanying shift in U.S. policy to be more open about counter-space capabilities .

More details may yet emerge about Kosmos 2612 and its recent rendezvous in orbit with ICEYE X36, but it already points to how space has become an increasingly likely potential zone for direct conflict going forward.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

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作者：约瑟夫·特雷维西克、霍华德·奥特曼

发布于美国东部时间2026年10月19日下午5:38

俄罗斯卫星“宇宙2612”可能与美国商业图像提供商ICEYE的一颗注册卫星在约26米（85英尺）的距离内擦肩而过。对于两个以数千英里/小时速度飞行的太空物体来说，这是一次极其近距离且潜在危险的擦肩而过。此前数周，俄罗斯特别关注的ICEYE-X36卫星已经与“宇宙2612”的轨道位置越来越接近。目前，两颗卫星似乎正在逐渐拉开距离，但这一事件清楚地表明，随着太空冲突的可能性不断增加，未来可能会出现更多类似的情况。

来自 satellitemap.space 和 orbitalradar.com 网站的公开太空跟踪数据显示，Kosmos 2612（有时也写作 Cosmos 2612，简称 K2612）和 ICEYE X36 于今天世界协调时约 16:07 发生了一次异常近距离的接触。私人太空服务公司 LeoLabs 今天也告诉 TWZ，他们无法“证实或反驳其他数据来源公开的信息”，但他们“高度确信这两个物体之间的距离约为 500 米（1640 英尺）”。Kosmos 2612（有时也写作 Cosmos 2612，简称 K2612）最近几天一直在逐渐靠近 ICEYE X36。

今早ICEYE-X36 (59103)和COSMOS 2612 (68762)首次飞越南美洲上空，天空多云，这是部分飞越过程的延时摄影。pic.twitter.com/t8RhwmKcV4 — s2a systems (@s2a_systems) October 18, 2026

这是今天早上ICEYE-X36 (59103)和COSMOS 2612 (68762)首次飞越南美洲上空（多云天气）的部分延时摄影。 pic.twitter.com/t8RhwmKcV4

6/x 请注意，虽然 ICEYE-X36 是芬兰制造的，但它（像其他所有权已转移的 ICEYE 卫星一样）已不再属于芬兰。它在美国注册，但现在可能归乌克兰所有/租赁。—— Marco Langbroek 博士 (@Marco_Langbroek) 2026 年 10 月 17 日

6/x 请注意，虽然 ICEYE-X36 是芬兰制造的，但它（与其他所有权已转移的 ICEYE 卫星一样）已不再属于芬兰。它在美国注册，但现在可能归乌克兰所有/租赁。

LeoLabs在今天更新并提供给TWZ的一份评估报告中指出：“COSMOS 2612从数百公里外迅速接近ICEYE-X36，随后绕其飞行，并在附近停留了一段时间，之后开始远离。最新观测结果显示，该航天器已明显拉开距离，证实近距离接触活动已经结束。”

LeoLabs 的这一更广泛评估得到了其他公开来源数据的支持，如下所示。

更新：Cosmos 2612 在与 ICEYE 卫星近距离接触后似乎进行了机动。最新的 TLE 显示 2612 进入了一个更大的轨道，如果没有进一步的机动，它将漂移远离 ICEYE。在这段动画中，我模拟了一次脉冲点火，以连接 2612 之前的 TLE 和它最新的 TLE…… https://t.co/owzTZiijka pic.twitter.com/RBqGDvVH9H — Adam Cohen (@AdamCohen8) October 18, 2026

从地球标准来看，前面提到的距离似乎都不算特别近，更谈不上令人担忧。然而，对于并非由相关各方直接协调的太空行动而言，这绝对是异常的。作为参考，2020年，另一颗俄罗斯卫星“宇宙2542”与美国的KH-11间谍卫星“美国245”的距离仅为150至300公里（93至186英里），此事一度成为国际新闻热点。

“我们已经了解情况，并正在密切关注事态发展，”ICEYE美国分部的一位发言人今天早上告诉TWZ。“我们的星座架构旨在确保连续性和韧性。”

ICEYE公司成立于芬兰，但现在在全球各地设有办事处。该公司专注于利用合成孔径雷达（SAR）卫星（例如2024年发射的ICEYE X36卫星）提供图像。

合成孔径雷达（SAR）的优势在于能够昼夜拍摄图像，不受恶劣天气或浓烟等其他遮蔽物的影响。但与可见光图像相比，SAR图像在细节呈现方面存在一些不足。多年来，乌克兰当局一直在使用ICEYE卫星图像，包括将其用于目标定位，这是乌克兰与俄罗斯持续冲突的一部分。过去曾有报道称，ICEYE X36卫星的运行更多地受到乌克兰政府的直接控制，但这一说法尚未得到证实。

乌克兰国防部情报总局（简称GUR）此前发布了这张连接被占领的克里米亚半岛和俄罗斯无可争议领土的刻赤大桥的合成孔径雷达（SAR）图像，并称该图像来自ICEYE。

宇宙2612是俄罗斯军方于4月17日使用一枚联盟-2.1b火箭发射的六颗卫星（宇宙2609至宇宙2614）之一。这些卫星的确切用途和配置尚未得到证实。然而，它们似乎是所谓的“检查卫星”，能够与太空中的其他物体进行交会和近距离机动。我们稍后会对此进行更详细的讨论。

很明显，Kosmos 2612 在过去三周里一直刻意地紧随 ICEYE X36 之后。

“从 2026 年 9 月 30 日开始的两周内，Cosmos 2612 执行了一系列新的机动动作，使其重新回到共面对准状态，并将其置于与商业卫星几乎相同的高度，”华盛顿特区战略与国际研究中心 (CSIS) 智库航空航天安全项目副主任兼高级研究员克莱顿·斯沃普 (Clayton Swope) 和研究助理尚塔尔·李 (Chantal Li) 在上周四对这一情况的分析中写道。

“根据目前的轨道参数，俄罗斯的#KOSMOS 2612卫星现在距离#ICEYE-X36卫星仅1-2公里（0.6-1.2英里）。”荷兰代尔夫特理工大学航空航天工程学院空间态势感知讲师马可·朗布鲁克博士周六在X论坛上发帖写道，“根据目前的轨道参数，它可能在几个小时内接近#ICEYE-X36卫星至几米之内。这是一次未经同意的#RPO（交会和近距离操作）。”

2/x 起初我怀疑#ICEYEX36是否真的是有意为之的目标：但#Kosmos2612从9月30日开始的一系列机动显然是为了使这两个天体非常接近，并同步它们的轨道周期、轨道高度和偏心率：pic.twitter.com/BhIoi8Rtbe — Dr Marco Langbroek (@Marco_Langbroek) October 17, 2026

2/x 起初我怀疑#ICEYEX36是否真的是有意为之的目标：但#Kosmos2612从9月30日开始的一系列机动显然是为了使这两个天体非常接近，并同步它们的轨道周期、轨道高度和偏心率：pic.twitter.com/BhIoi8Rtbe

“新的双行轨道根数（TLE）显示，K2612于10月16日进行了一次机动，目前与ICEYE X36的距离在5公里（3.1英里）以内，”曾就职于哈佛-史密森天体物理中心并长期追踪轨道上目标的天体物理学家兼天文学家乔纳森·麦克道尔（Jonathan McDowell）周六在X网站上发表的一系列文章中写道。“据我所知，这是两颗在轨运行卫星首次在未经其中一颗卫星所有者批准的情况下进行低地球轨道（LEO）交会。”

麦克道尔后来澄清说，轨道上的物体“近距离掠过”以前肯定发生过，“但我认为不是交会（速度矢量匹配）。”

“这是我们观察到的最先进、也可能最危险的非合作型 RPO，”LeoLabs 技术解决方案副总裁 Adam Marsh 单独告诉 Breaking Defense。

前所未有的轨道机动

正如之前的“宇宙2542”号卫星与“美国245”号卫星的互动所表明的那样，近距离遮蔽在轨卫星绝非新鲜事。美国政府以及俄罗斯和其他一些国家过去都曾被观察到进行过此类活动。然而，“宇宙2612”号卫星与“冰眼X36”卫星的距离之近，以及它们近距离接触的持续时间之长，至少可以说是极其不寻常的。

LeoLabs的报告指出：“值得注意的是，像这样的‘红对蓝’交会，在近地轨道（LEO）上相对少见。” 同时，“这并非一次例行的交会或‘飞掠’。整个过程包括受控接近、相对位置变化、近距离盘旋、额外的微调以及受控分离。这种行为符合复杂的交会和近距离操作（RPO）的特征。”

除此之外，还有其他迹象表明，Kosmos 2612 和 ICEYE X36 之间刚刚发生的事情可能遵循某种俄罗斯的剧本，这种剧本也可能被用作在轨反卫星攻击的前奏。

在4月份发射后的几周内，Kosmos 2610、2611、2612、2613和2614号卫星都移动到了与多颗ICEYE卫星共享的轨道平面上。其中三颗卫星随后近距离飞掠了ICEYE X36卫星，但它们最初都没有与ICEYE X36保持同步运行。据路透社上周报道，ICEYE首席执行官拉法尔·莫德热夫斯基表示，“该公司后来移动了其卫星，这引发了俄罗斯的进一步行动”。

🛰️ 俄罗斯卫星接近 ICEYE：时间线详解。追踪数据来自 @LeoLabs_Space。分析来自 COMSPOC SSA。4 月 16 日，俄罗斯从普列谢茨克发射场发射了六颗可机动卫星（宇宙 2609-2614）。其中五颗——宇宙 2610、2611、2612、2613 和 2614…… pic.twitter.com/ISoToOptnp — COMSPOC_OPS (@COMSPOC_OPS) 2026 年 7 月 15 日

再往前追溯，在2020年“宇宙2542”号卫星被发现跟踪“美国245”号卫星之前，曾有报道称这颗美国间谍卫星改变了轨道。这可能是受到另一颗俄罗斯“侦察卫星”——“宇宙2543”号卫星移动的影响。但这一说法似乎从未得到证实。

在太空飞行期间，Kosmos 2542 于 2019 年 11 月部署了 Kosmos 2543。随后，在 2020 年 7 月 23 日，美国军方表示探测到 Kosmos 2543 本身发射了一个较小的物体，并称之为对天基反卫星武器的测试。在随后接受《时代》杂志采访时，时任美国太空部队最高军官、太空作战司令约翰·“杰伊”·雷蒙德将军透露，美军早在 2017 年就观测到俄罗斯的“套娃式”卫星——这里指的是传统的俄罗斯套娃——同样展现了“武器系统的特征”。

多年来，美国官员一直警告说，俄罗斯日益增多的检查型卫星——表面上是为了检查该国在轨运行的其他资产是否发生故障或出现其他异常而部署的——实际上具有双重用途。除了发射弹丸外，航天器还具备在轨道上近距离机动并保持该位置的能力，这使得它们能够进行一系列其他类型的攻击，包括动能攻击和非动能攻击。这些攻击方式包括使用机械臂破坏卫星或将其拖出轨道、喷洒气溶胶以损害或干扰光学器件和太阳能电池板，以及进行电子战干扰。卫星本身甚至可以成为武器，变成动能拦截器，根据指令撞击目标。

美国国防情报局的一张图表，重点展示了几种在轨攻击的实施方式。

两颗卫星在轨道上紧密跟踪，也使得各种情报收集成为可能。收集图像和信号发射信息可以提供有关目标能力和弱点以及其在特定环境中的使用方式的重要细节。

根据LeoLabs全球雷达网络的观测和我们团队的分析，COSMOS 2612展示了一系列可用于检查、表征、跟踪或潜在干扰其他航天器的能力。LeoLabs的报告指出：“这些行动需要周密的计划、机动性、精确的导航以及大量的燃料。它们也可能表明COSMOS 2612使用了能够测量其他航天器相对位置的机载传感器。”

Kosmos 2612 和 ICEYE X36 之间刚刚发生的事件凸显了，仅仅是有效的攻击威胁本身就足以造成破坏。仅仅迫使一颗成像卫星偏离预定位置，就可能阻止其对目标区域进行采集，或者至少使其无法以最有效的方式进行采集。

此外，卫星进入轨道后，其机动所需的燃料量是有限的。太空干扰迫使卫星以高于预期的速度消耗有限的燃料，这不仅会缩短卫星的使用寿命，还会进一步降低其效能，并使其更容易遭受攻击或事故。太空碎片是一个日益严重的威胁，卫星越来越需要躲避这些碎片。

美国等国一直在积极发展在轨燃料补给能力，以应对这些问题。上个月，美国官员还做出了一项重磅声明，承认目前轨道上部署着一些未指明的美国武器系统，表面上是为了应对来自俄罗斯和中国日益增长的威胁而采取的防御措施。俄罗斯、中国以及其他一些国家一直在积极研发和部署各种反卫星能力，这些能力既存在于地球大气层内，也存在于大气层外。

“我们只能猜测这次行动的目标，但其目的可能从简单的恐吓到彻底摧毁或破坏美国注册卫星都有可能，”战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）的克莱顿·斯沃普今天就Kosmos 2612和ICEYE X36的最新进展直接告诉TWZ。“或许行动已经暂停。不过，还有几颗卫星曾在5月份跟踪过ICEYE X36，它们也可能被调动起来执行任务。”

归因及更广泛的影响

需要指出的是，太空领域本身就存在固有的复杂性，一旦发生任何形式的攻击，都难以确定其责任归属。卫星确实会发生事故，有时会造成灾难性后果，而事故原因并非总是显而易见。

就在今年1月，一颗2014年发射的俄罗斯检查卫星似乎意外解体。7月底前后，中国侦察卫星遥感50-02（发射仅约4个月）也在轨道上解体。9月13日，美国冷战时期的间谍卫星“法拉三号”（Farrah III，又称USA 32）也遭遇了类似的命运。截至发稿时，尚无确凿证据表明这些事件是敌对行动所致，而非某种意外事故。

更新：来自中国现役卫星遥感50-02的碎片。@S4S_SDA 现已编目了62块碎片，这些碎片来自中国现役遥感50-02卫星（68196 / 2026-051A），时间大约在2026年7月20日（参见我在Substack上的初步分析，链接在推文中）。尽管…… pic.twitter.com/1ecF68W8VQ — Space Domain Awareness (@shell_jim) October 12, 2026

更新：来自中国现役遥感50-02卫星的碎片。@S4S_SDA 现已编目了62块碎片，这些碎片来自中国现役遥感50-02卫星（68196 / 2026-051A），时间大约在2026年7月20日（参见我在Substack上的初步分析，链接在推文中）。尽管…… pic.twitter.com/1ecF68W8VQ

美国太空部队-太空司令部 (S4S) 确认，USA 32 (#19460) 于 2026 年 9 月 13 日 21:13 UTC 在近地轨道 (LEO) 解体。以下是部分录音。录音时，大量碎片已散布在轨道的一大片区域。pic.twitter.com/gjRxCTPz2o — s2a systems (@s2a_systems) September 16, 2026

美国太空部队-太空司令部（S4S）确认，USA 32（#19460）于2026年9月13日约21:13 UTC在近地轨道（LEO）解体。以下是部分USA 32的记录。在记录时，大量碎片已经散布在轨道的一大片区域。pic.twitter.com/gjRxCTPz2o

“尽管COSMOS 2612行为背后的意图尚不明确，但此次活动的蓄意性、所需燃料以及其与西方商业成像卫星的接近程度，都使该事件具有重要的战略意义，”LeoLab的报告指出。“此次事件及其所展示的能力并未表明存在敌对意图。然而，它确实展示了可用于情报收集、在轨检查、胁迫信号、干扰或为未来反太空行动做准备的能力。”

“宇宙2612”号近期的活动极有可能预示着未来的发展趋势。在大气层内，尤其是在空中和海上，武装力量在近距离进行咄咄逼人且可能造成危险的机动并不罕见。鉴于轨道能力在全球现代军事行动中日益重要的作用，将这些战术的变体延伸到太空领域是合情合理的。这些作用涵盖了预警、情报收集、武器制导、近实时通信等诸多方面。

美国官员此前曾表示，美国在太空的资产经常成为“可逆攻击”的目标，这意味着这些攻击不会造成永久性损害。这也说明，如果没有持久的影响或后果，就很难确定攻击的归因。

近年来，美国政府对太空领域的长期垄断地位一直在稳步削弱，尤其是在中国大规模扩张情报收集和其他卫星星座的背景下。如今，商业卫星图像和其他太空服务提供商（例如ICEYE）提供的服务规模和范围不断扩大，使得像乌克兰这样自身没有或根本没有大型卫星星座的国家也能进一步获得太空能力。

这张卫星图像显示，去年乌克兰空袭后，多架俄罗斯图-95“熊”式轰炸机在白亚亚空军基地受损或被摧毁，这正是ICEYE公司商业服务内容的体现。图片由ICEYE公司提供。

反过来，所有这些都促使美国军方，特别是美国军方，越来越重视在轨道上开展更积极主动的行动，并考虑可能发生的直接冲突，以确保其在未来保持优势。前文披露的美国在轨武器正是这些发展趋势的体现，也反映了美国政策的相应转变，即更加公开地展示其反太空能力。

关于 Kosmos 2612 及其最近与 ICEYE X36 在轨道上的交会，可能还会有更多细节浮出水面，但这已经表明，太空已成为未来越来越有可能发生直接冲突的潜在区域。

联系作者：joe@twz.com

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