2026 midterm cheat sheet: Which races to watch on defense

Rep. Rob Wittman, Sen. Susan Collins and Rep. Ken Calvert are all key GOP defense advocates whose electoral fate may determine control of the 120th Congress. (Credits: US Marine Corps, Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — The makeup of Congress could dramatically shift following midterm elections on Nov. 3, with polls currently projecting that Democrats will flip the House and could also take the Senate.

With that could come massive changes to the roster of defense advocates on Capitol Hill, as several longtime national security heavyweights — including the Senate’s top defense appropriator, Mitch McConnell — retire, while other defense committee leaders battle to keep their seats.

Here are the three most consequential races to watch in the defense world, as well as a few other important ones we’ll be tracking on election night.

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson

Maine’s senatorial race has been one of the most dramatic and hotly contested races of the midterms. Republican Sen. Susan Collins , who chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC), is facing off against Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic challenger after Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner withdrew due to allegations of sexual misconduct.

As SAC chairwoman, Collins is one of the most consequential deciders of the defense budget, having a key role in setting defense and nondefense topline spending levels. Before claiming the gavel, Collins led its defense subcommittee, where she advocated for higher defense budgets and aid for Ukraine. She was one of three Senate Republicans to vote against the confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

ProPublica recently reported that in 2024 the FBI intended to launch a pay-to-play investigation after a former defense contractor told the agency his company had donated to Collins’s political action committee in exchange for winning government contracts in Maine. Collins’s office has called the claims “categorically false.”

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According to OpenSecrets.Org , General Dynamics ranks fifth on the list of top organizations that donated to Collins’s campaign. (Although companies cannot directly donate to lawmakers campaigns, political action committees affiliated with corporations can. Open Secrets tallies both these donations and individual donations made by those affiliated with a corporation.)

Jackson — a fifth-generation logger — has not made national security issues a centerpiece of his campaign, but lists “No U.S. tax dollars to Israel’s military” as a priority policy on his website.

Jackson has pledged not to take corporate donations for his campaign, but The Washington Post reported that he previously ran a PAC that accepted corporate money. Defense companies were not listed as donors in that report.

Virginia: Rep. Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor

Rep. Rob Wittman , who currently sits as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s (HASC) Tactical Air and Land Subcommittee, is in line for the top GOP spot on HASC if he wins Virginia’s 1st District. That will require beating Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor, a prosecutor who has centered her campaign on anti-corruption and affordability, in what is shaping up to be a competitive race.

Wittman is highly influential on matters concerning the Air Force and Navy, having previously served as the head of HASC’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. He has championed higher defense spending and larger investments in low-cost attritable weaponry.

If the Democrats seize control of the House, Wittman is seen as the frontrunner to become HASC’s top Republican, should current chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., not seek a waiver to retain his place on the committee. (Under current House GOP rules, Republicans can only spend three consecutive terms as a committee’s chairperson or ranking member without seeking a waiver.)

However, Reps. Trent Kelly , who leads the seapower subcommittee, and Ronny Jackson , who leads the intelligence and special operations subcommittee, have also expressed interest in the top GOP spot.

The defense industry has been a major bankroller of Wittman’s campaign, with Lockheed Martin topping the list of donating organizations when both individual and political action committee donations are taken into account, according to data from Open Secrets.

Taylor has pledged not to take money from corporate political action committees.

California: Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Rep. Young Kim

Redistricting could cost GOP Rep. Ken Calvert , chairman of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, his seat in the House, as he must win against fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim in a battle for California’s 40th Congressional District. (There is no Democratic challenger in this race, as only the top two vote-getters advance from the primary to the general election.)

As the top House defense appropriator, Calvert has endorsed higher defense spending, and has taken particular interest in efforts to increase defense manufacturing and boost Defense Department organizations aimed at bolstering innovation.

Should Calvert emerge victorious in the midterms, he will need to seek a waiver to remain as HAC-D’s top Republican and has indicated he will do so .

The defense industry has been a major spender on Calvert’s campaign this cycle, with General Electric and General Atomics both listed by Open Secrets in the top five donors by organization. Over the last quarter, two top Palantir executives — CEO Alex Karp and Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar— donated a total of $900,000 to the Americans 4 Security super PAC that has financially backed Calvert, Punchbowl News reported earlier this month.

Kim, who was first elected to Congress in 2020, does not sit on any of the congressional defense committees. However, she is a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee as the chairwoman of its East Asia and Pacific subcommittee. She is also a member of the House select committee on China.

Defense companies do not make up a major portion of Kim’s campaign donors, according to Open Secrets data.

Other Races To Watch:

Rep. Adam Smith vs Doug Basler: Smith, HASC’s top Democrat, is expected to defeat Republican challenger Doug Basler for Washington’s 9th Congressional District. If Democrats take the House, Smith is set to once again become HASC chairman.

Rep. Mike Rogers vs Lee McInnis: The race between HASC Chairman Rogers and Democrat challenger Lee McInnis is not expected to be competitive, with Rogers slated to win in Alabama’s solidly Republican 3rd District. The big question is whether he seeks a waiver to stay on as HASC’s top Republican if he does.

Rep. Jen Kiggans vs former Rep. Elaine Luria: Kiggans, a Republican member of HASC, faces former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria for Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District. Kiggans is a former Navy helicopter pilot, while Luria is a former naval officer who operated naval reactors onboard warships. Both are strong advocates for shipbuilding.

Rep. Eugene Vindman vs Douglas Ollivant: Vindman, a Democrat, is a retired Army lieutenant colonel who currently serves on HASC. He seeks a second term representing Virginia’s 7th District in a fight against Republican Douglas Ollivant, also a former Army lieutenant colonel. Both list veterans’ issues as key priorities.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin: Kaptur, a Democratic defense appropriator, is battling Republican Derek Merrin, a former state representative, for Ohio’s 9th District. Kaptur has been in Congress since 1983, but her district — which was recently redrawn — now favors Republicans.

Rep. David Valadao vs Randy Villegas : Valadao, a Republican on the defense appropriations subcommittee, faces a similar conundrum as Kaptur. California’s 22nd District was recently redrawn and is considered a tossup, with Valadao butting heads against Democrat Randy Villegas.

Sen. Dan Sullivan vs former Rep. Mary Peltola: Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, a longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, finds himself embroiled in a four-way race with a strange twist. Not only is he taking on former Rep. Mary Peltola, his Democratic challenger, he also faces an independent candidate who shares his name: former schoolteacher Dan J. Sullivan Jr. The Trump administration has sued to block the certification of the race if a Republican loses, citing name confusion.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed: Rogers, a Republican, is a former chairman of the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He previously served as the representative for Michigan’s 8th District from 2001-2015. Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for one of Michigan’s Senate seats in one of the midterm’s most competitive races.

Several key congressional defense advocates have also chosen to retire or otherwise depart Capitol Hill at the end of 2026. Those include:

Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is currently chairman of the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee, but is probably best known as the longest-serving Senate party leader in US history. As SAC-D chair, he advocated for higher budgets and criticized the Defense Department’s use of reconciliation funding as an unsustainable way of boosting the topline.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., holds multiple power positions on national security issues, including as the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as membership on SASC and the Senate defense appropriations committee. As co-chair of the Senate NATO Observer Group, she is one of Congress’s leading advocates for Ukraine.

Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., a defense appropriator who has previously held the gavel for the subcommittee. Durbin has been a vocal proponent of Ukraine aid.

Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, a member of SASC and chairwoman of the Senate Small Business Committee. Ernst played a key role in Hegseth’s confirmation, as well as the the reauthorization of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program.

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., is a SASC member who sits on several Senate appropriations subcommittees (although not on the defense subpanel).

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a former Air Force brigadier general who was a strong advocate for the service. He chairs HASC’s cyber and IT subcommittee, and has vocally criticized Trump’s policies on Ukraine and in Europe.

Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., is a Marine Corps veteran and currently the ranking Democrat on HASC’s Strategic Forces Subcommittee. Moulton ran for Senate and was defeated by incumbent Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a HASC member who was previously chair of the House Republican Conference. She will leave Congress this year after dropping out of New York’s gubernatorial race in 2025.

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众议员罗伯·威特曼、参议员苏珊·柯林斯和众议员肯·卡尔弗特都是共和党重要的国防倡导者，他们的选举命运可能决定第120届国会的控制权。（图片来源：美国海军陆战队，Graeme Sloan/彭博社（经由Getty Images），Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc（经由Getty Images））

华盛顿——11月3日中期选举后，国会的组成可能会发生巨大变化，目前的民调预测民主党将赢得众议院，并且还有可能拿下参议院。

随之而来的是国会山国防倡导者阵容的巨大变化，因为几位长期担任国家安全要职的重量级人物——包括参议院最高国防拨款人米奇·麦康奈尔——即将退休，而其他国防委员会领导人则在努力保住自己的席位。

以下是国防领域最值得关注的三场选举，以及我们将在选举之夜追踪的其他一些重要选举。

缅因州：苏珊·柯林斯参议员对阵特洛伊·杰克逊

缅因州参议员竞选是中期选举中最引人注目、竞争最激烈的竞选之一。共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯是权力强大的参议院拨款委员会（SAC）主席，她将与民主党挑战者特洛伊·杰克逊展开角逐。杰克逊是在海军陆战队老兵格雷厄姆·普拉特纳因性行为不端指控退出竞选后成为民主党挑战者的。

作为参议院军事委员会主席，柯林斯是国防预算中最具影响力的决策者之一，在设定国防和非国防开支总额方面发挥着关键作用。在担任主席之前，柯林斯领导着该委员会的国防小组委员会，她曾力主增加国防预算和对乌克兰的援助。她是三位投票反对确认皮特·赫格塞斯担任国防部长的共和党参议员之一。

ProPublica 近日报道称，2024 年，一名国防承包商向联邦调查局 (FBI) 举报，称其公司曾向柯林斯的政治行动委员会捐款，以换取在缅因州赢得政府合同。FBI 计划就此展开调查。柯林斯的办公室称这些指控“完全是捏造的”。

无人机航程和有效载荷的飞跃得益于采用不同化学成分的电池。

锂金属电池是突破当今无人系统重量和续航能力限制的一种方法。

根据 OpenSecrets.Org 的数据，通用动力公司在向柯林斯竞选活动捐款最多的机构名单中排名第五。（虽然公司不能直接向议员竞选活动捐款，但与公司有关联的政治行动委员会可以。OpenSecrets 统计了这些捐款以及与公司有关联的个人所作的捐款。）

杰克逊是第五代伐木工人，他并没有将国家安全问题作为竞选的核心，但他在其网站上将“不向以色列军方提供美国税款”列为优先政策。

杰克逊已承诺竞选期间不接受企业捐款，但《华盛顿邮报》报道称，他此前曾运营一个接受企业捐款的政治行动委员会（PAC）。该报道中并未列出国防公司作为捐款方。

弗吉尼亚州：众议员罗布·威特曼对阵香农·泰勒

现任众议院军事委员会（HASC）战术空地小组委员会主席的罗伯·威特曼议员，如果赢得弗吉尼亚州第一选区，将有望成为HASC的共和党最高领导人。这意味着他必须击败民主党挑战者香农·泰勒，后者是一名检察官，其竞选纲领侧重于反腐败和降低生活成本。这场选战势必激烈。

维特曼在空军和海军事务上极具影响力，他曾担任众议院军事委员会海权和投送力量小组委员会主席。他一直倡导增加国防开支，并加大对低成本消耗性武器的投资。

如果民主党夺取众议院控制权，维特曼被视为众议院军事委员会（HASC）首席共和党成员的热门人选，前提是现任主席、阿拉巴马州共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯不寻求豁免以保住其在委员会的席位。（根据众议院共和党现行规则，共和党人担任委员会主席或首席成员的任期不得超过三届，除非寻求豁免。）

然而，领导海权小组委员会的众议员特伦特·凯利和领导情报和特种作战小组委员会的众议员罗尼·杰克逊也对共和党最高职位表示了兴趣。

根据 Open Secrets 的数据，国防工业一直是维特曼竞选活动的主要资助者，洛克希德·马丁公司在个人捐款和政治行动委员会捐款方面位居捐赠组织榜首。

泰勒承诺不会接受企业政治行动委员会的捐款。

加利福尼亚州：众议员肯·卡尔弗特对阵众议员杨金

重新划分选区可能导致共和党众议员肯·卡尔弗特失去众议院席位，他目前是众议院拨款委员会国防小组委员会主席。他必须在加利福尼亚州第40选区的竞选中击败同为共和党人的杨金（Young Kim）。（由于只有初选得票最高的两名候选人才能进入大选，因此本次选举没有民主党挑战者。）

作为众议院国防拨款最高负责人，卡尔弗特支持增加国防开支，并且特别关注增加国防制造业和加强国防部旨在促进创新的机构的努力。

如果卡尔弗特在中期选举中获胜，他将需要寻求豁免才能继续担任 HAC-D 的首席共和党人，并且他已表示他会这样做。

国防工业一直是卡尔弗特竞选活动的主要捐助者，据“公开秘密”（Open Secrets）网站统计，通用电气和通用原子公司均位列捐款机构前五名。据Punchbowl News本月早些时候报道，上个季度，Palantir公司的两位高管——首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普和首席技术官沙姆·桑卡尔——共向“美国人保障安全”（Americans 4 Security）超级政治行动委员会捐赠了90万美元，该委员会为卡尔弗特提供了资金支持。

金于2020年首次当选国会议员，她并非任何国会国防委员会的成员。然而，她是众议院外交事务委员会的成员，并担任该委员会东亚和太平洋小组委员会主席。她同时也是众议院中国问题特别委员会的成员。

根据“公开秘密”的数据，国防公司并非金正恩竞选捐款人的主要来源。

其他值得关注的赛事：

众议员亚当·史密斯对阵道格·巴斯勒：作为众议院军事委员会（HASC）的首席民主党成员，史密斯预计将在华盛顿州第九选区击败共和党挑战者道格·巴斯勒。如果民主党赢得众议院多数席位，史密斯将再次出任HASC主席。

众议员迈克·罗杰斯对阵李·麦金尼斯：众议院军事委员会主席罗杰斯与民主党挑战者李·麦金尼斯之间的竞选预计不会出现激烈竞争，罗杰斯有望在阿拉巴马州共和党铁票仓第三选区胜出。最大的问题是，如果他胜选，是否会寻求豁免以继续担任众议院军事委员会的共和党最高领导人。

众议员珍·基根斯对阵前众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚：共和党籍众议院军事委员会成员基根斯将与前民主党众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚角逐弗吉尼亚州第二国会选区席位。基根斯曾是海军直升机飞行员，而卢里亚曾是海军军官，在军舰上操作过海军反应堆。两人都大力支持造船业。

众议员尤金·温德曼对阵道格拉斯·奥利文特：温德曼是民主党人，曾任陆军中校，现已退役，目前担任众议院军事委员会委员。他寻求连任弗吉尼亚州第七选区众议员，对手是共和党人道格拉斯·奥利文特，后者也曾是陆军中校。两人都将退伍军人问题列为竞选重点。

众议员玛西·卡普图尔对阵德里克·梅里恩：民主党籍国防拨款议员卡普图尔正在与共和党人德里克·梅里恩角逐俄亥俄州第九选区的众议员席位。梅里恩曾任州众议员。卡普图尔自1983年起便担任国会议员，但她所在的选区——最近重新划分——现在更有利于共和党。

众议员戴维·瓦拉道 (David Valadao) 与兰迪·维勒加斯 (Randy Villegas) 的对决：瓦拉道是国防拨款小组委员会的共和党成员，他面临着与卡普图尔类似的困境。加利福尼亚州第22选区最近重新划分，被认为是势均力敌的选区，瓦拉道将与民主党候选人兰迪·维勒加斯展开激烈角逐。

参议员丹·沙利文对阵前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉：长期担任参议院军事委员会成员的共和党参议员丹·沙利文，发现自己陷入了一场颇为奇特的四人竞选。他不仅要面对民主党挑战者、前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉，还要面对一位与他同名的独立候选人：前教师丹·J·沙利文二世。特朗普政府已提起诉讼，要求如果共和党候选人落败，则阻止选举结果的认证，理由是姓名混淆。

前众议员迈克·罗杰斯对阵阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德：罗杰斯是共和党人，曾任美国众议院常设情报委员会主席。他此前于2001年至2015年担任密歇根州第八选区众议员。罗杰斯将与民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德角逐密歇根州参议院席位，这场中期选举竞争异常激烈。

几位重要的国会国防倡导者也选择在2026年底退休或离开国会山。其中包括：

肯塔基州共和党参议员米奇·麦康奈尔目前担任参议院拨款委员会国防小组委员会主席，但他最广为人知的身份或许是美国历史上任期最长的参议院党派领袖。担任国防小组委员会主席期间，他主张增加预算，并批评国防部利用预算协调拨款来增加预算的做法不可持续。

新罕布什尔州参议员珍妮·沙欣在国家安全问题上身居要职，包括担任参议院外交关系委员会首席民主党议员，以及参议院军事委员会和参议院国防拨款委员会成员。作为参议院北约观察团联合主席，她是国会中支持乌克兰的主要倡导者之一。

伊利诺伊州民主党参议员迪克·德宾是国防拨款委员会成员，曾担任该小组委员会主席。德宾一直是乌克兰援助的积极倡导者。

爱荷华州共和党参议员乔妮·恩斯特是参议院军事委员会成员，也是参议院小企业委员会主席。恩斯特在赫格塞斯的任命确认以及小企业创新研究（SBIR）计划的重新授权过程中发挥了关键作用。

密歇根州民主党参议员加里·彼得斯是参议院军事委员会成员，他同时也是参议院拨款委员会下属多个小组委员会的成员（尽管他不是国防小组委员会的成员）。

内布拉斯加州共和党众议员唐·培根曾任空军准将，是空军的坚定支持者。他担任众议院军事委员会网络与信息技术小组委员会主席，并曾公开批评特朗普在乌克兰和欧洲的政策。

马萨诸塞州民主党众议员塞思·莫尔顿是海军陆战队退伍军人，目前是众议院军事委员会战略部队小组委员会的资深民主党成员。莫尔顿曾竞选参议员，但在民主党初选中败给了现任参议员埃德·马基。

纽约州众议员、注册护士伊莉丝·斯特凡尼克是众议院军事委员会成员，曾任众议院共和党会议主席。她将于今年离开国会，此前她已退出2025年纽约州州长竞选。

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