A Nuclear Strike On Iran? It Sounds Absurd Because It Is. Let’s Talk About It

Published Nov 2, 2026 7:49 PM EST

On Sunday evening, commentator Tucker Carlson made a chilling claim : U.S. President Donald Trump may soon use nuclear weapons against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain facility . Carlson’s comments were posted on X just two days ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, after which Trump has frequently used as a timeframe when he would conduct a new wave of airstrikes on Iran if he so decides. However, earlier on Monday, Trump downplayed that deadline, answering “no” when asked by reporters whether he was considering attacking after the election is over.

Regardless, Carlson’s claim runs counter to the president’s previous stance on the nuclear weapons issue. Trump has publicly eschewed their use , and while he has discussed attacking Pickaxe Mountain, he’s made it clear it would be by a conventional weapon if he made the call.

Monday afternoon, the White House dismissed Carlson’s asssertion.

“President Trump has a wide range of options available regarding Iran, and he will do what is right to keep the American people safe,” a White House official told us. “Tucker Carlson lost his way long ago due to a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, and he has no insight into military planning or the Commander-in-Chief’s thinking.”

We don’t know the source of Carlson’s information or if it is in any way accurate. Carlson has experienced a major rift with Trump and has said plenty of shocking things in recent years, especially in regard to Trump’s second term and the war with Iran. Still, he is a very connected figure in right-wing media. Regardless, as TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway noted on X, even conjecture that has gone viral about the potential use of a nuclear weapon for the first time since the U.S. Aug. 9, 1945 merits discussion. It would have such profound and irrevocable repercussions that it should not be ignored. We addressed the same concerns in regard to Russia and Ukraine in 2022.

A dense column of smoke rises more than 60,000 feet into the air over the Japanese industrial port of Nagasaki, the result of an atomic bomb, the second ever used in warfare, Aug. 9, 1945. (Courtesy of the National Archives/Newsmakers) National Archives

“If a nuclear weapon were used on [Pickaxe Mountain] in Iran by the US or Israel or an empty field in Ukraine by Russia etc, it doesn’t matter, it would open up Pandora’s box and would make the U.S. and the world dramatically less safe,” Rogoway stated. “This isn’t even a question of how big of a disaster the use, in any manner, of a nuclear weapon would be. It would represent the largest foreign policy error ever by the United States if we were involved. We can only hope this claim isn’t accurate in any way.”

“…And I have no idea if this claim has merit, but this is important nonetheless,” he added in his X thread. “It is massively viral on my X feed. It has to be addressed.”

If a nuclear weapon were used on Pick Axe mountain in Iran by the US or Israel or an empty field in Ukraine by Russia etc, it doesn’t matter, it would open up Pandora’s box and would make the U.S. and the world dramatically less safe. This isn’t even a question of how big of a… — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) November 2, 2026

If a nuclear weapon were used on Pick Axe mountain in Iran by the US or Israel or an empty field in Ukraine by Russia etc, it doesn’t matter, it would open up Pandora’s box and would make the U.S. and the world dramatically less safe. This isn’t even a question of how big of a…

Pickaxe Mountain, a very hardened Iranian facility also known as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is located in central Iran. As we have noted previously , it is deeply buried and would be a very difficult target to effectively destroy. In the past, Iran has openly discussed plans to produce centrifuges to support its nuclear enrichment efforts at the newer facility located there. It is also estimated to be large enough to house an actual enrichment plant, as well as other nuclear infrastructure, but exactly what is inside remains unconfirmed . Our previous reporting provides deeper insights into Pickaxe Mountain and Iran’s possible intentions for it .

Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain facility. (Satellite image ©2026 Vantor)

“Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran,” Carlson stated on X. “The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place.”

“The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one,” the commentator added. “‘Bibi calls Trump about it every day,’ says an informed observer. Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.”

What Trump has said about using nuclear weapons

“We don’t need it. Why do I need it?” Trump responded in April when asked if he would use nuclear weapons against Iran. “Why would a stupid question like that be asked? Why would I use a nuclear weapon where we’ve totally in a very conventional way decimated them without it.”

“A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody,” he added.

The American leader reiterated that stance in August.

“They’re totally defeated militarily, so I defeat them, and now I should use a nuclear weapon on top of them? What a stupid question,” Trump responded on Aug. 31 when again asked by a reporter if he would use nuclear weapons against Iran.

Still, Trump sparked concerns about whether he would use nuclear weapons when he threatened to obliterate Iran in April in a social media post.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” Trump stated on his Truth Social site . “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

Several experts we spoke with downplayed the chances that Trump would order a nuclear strike on Pickaxe Mountain, but they did not completely rule it out.

“Is it likely? No,” Daryl G. Kimball , Executive Director of the Arms Control Association (ACA) and publisher and contributor for the organization’s monthly journal, Arms Control Today, said when we asked if he thought Trump would order a nuclear strike. “Is it possible that an unstable desperate president who has sole authority to authorize nuclear weapons use, would do so, yes. Given the situation, it is crucial that responsible U.S. voices and international leaders speak out against a massive U.S. strike on Iran of any kind.”

“That is highly unlikely,” Hans Kristensen — director, Nuclear Information Project , Federation of American Scientists , explained to us. He also writes the bi-monthly Nuclear Notebook and the world nuclear forces overview in the SIPRI Yearbook . “There is nothing at all in Iran that justifies breaking the 81-year absence of nuclear weapons use. It would be a violation of the international Laws of War, have devastating consequences for U.S. foreign policy and the efforts to prevent proliferation and the use of nuclear weapons. It would be the kind of act where one would hope the people in the nuclear chain of command would refuse to carry out the president’s order.”

“I honestly don’t know that anyone knows that Trump will or won’t do, including Trump,” Stephen I. Schwartz , nonresident senior fellow at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists told us. “… for many years, often without prompting, he has spoken with a mix of wariness and awe about the tremendous power of nuclear weapons. But he has also publicly and repeatedly threatened to utterly annihilate North Korea, Afghanistan, and Iran. So, really, who knows?”

What weapon could the U.S. use if Trump ordered a nuclear strike?

As we have reported in the past, the B61-11 is the only air-delivered nuclear weapon in the U.S. stockpile today that is specifically designed to address this target set.

“The B61-11 is based on the earlier B61-7, but is substantially different in form and function. It has a heavily reinforced outer shell, possibly with a depleted uranium penetrating nose section, and a rocket booster at the rear to help it penetrate down into underground facilities. Sources differ on the maximum yield of the B61-11 , but it is said to either be between 340 and 360 kilotons (identical to that of the B61-7) or to be closer to 400 kilotons. There are also reportedly fewer than 100 of these bombs in the stockpile.”

The first B61-11 versions entered service in the 1960s. We have written extensively about the entire family of these weapons.

An example of the B61-11, or more likely an inert version thereof. This is the only specialized air-delivered deep-penetrating weapon known to be in the U.S. nuclear stockpile today. (Public Domain)

Given the yield of the B61-11, “one could probably do the job” of rendering Pickaxe Mountain unusable, Kristensen told us. “The collateral damage from 400 kilotons would be considerable; even if some very deep structures potentially survived, the damage to the overall infrastructure – plus the residual radiation in the soil – would probably make the site unusable. Other potential options include more conventional penetrator attacks to take out access points and accessible infrastructure, or potentially cyber attacks to sabotage or disable equipment and functions.”

“I think there are many non-nuclear options the United States and/or Israel could utilize to prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear weapons program (if, indeed, Iran has made a decision to do that),” argued Schwartz. “That would include using guided conventional bombs to target any entrances to the facility, impeding efforts of personnel to gain access and also complicating/preventing the movement of any materials out of the mountain.”

“Using an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] would not be a good option,” he added. “For one thing, any ICBM would have to fly over Russia to reach Iran, which would be risky in more ways than one, even if Putin somehow agreed to allow that to happen. For another, ICBM warheads are not designed to penetrate the earth, at least not to any significant depth, so the force of the explosion would largely be ‘wasted’ on the surface, with everything that implies about lethal radioactive fallout. (Using an SLBM [submarine-launched ballistic missile] from a Trident submarine stationed closer to Iran would avoid the overflight risks but would also still be perceived as a threat by Russia and perhaps China after launch, even if we notify them in advance. But W76 and W76-1 warheads are not earth-penetrators, and I doubt we would want to use a 455-kiloton W88 , our largest ballistic missile warhead, also not a deep earth-penetrator.)”

The W88 Alt 370 arming, fuzing, and firing assembly. (NNSA)

Israel has a nuclear weapons program that it does not publicly acknowledge and can deliver warheads via its Jericho ballistic missiles , some tactical jets and maybe even submarines .

It’s possible a special operations forces teams could attempt to raid the facility, access its interior and place a nuclear device inside it, although such a mission would be immensely challenging and extremely risky. We have also talked about the possibility of irradiating the facilities from the inside without using a nuclear warhead, but instead planting and detonating a kind of dirty bomb.

There are many other ways to do it, including one on a Jericho BM, or even raiding the place and planing a device inside. We have talked about even irradiating the interior for years. — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) November 2, 2026

There are many other ways to do it, including one on a Jericho BM, or even raiding the place and planing a device inside. We have talked about even irradiating the interior for years.

What are the alternatives to nuclear weapons?

As we noted earlier in this story, Trump has brought up the issue of conventional weapons to attack Pickaxe Mountain. In July, he said it was ripe for a “ nice big fat shot right in the front door .”

At the time, we discussed how difficult it would be to effectively destroy or render inoperable a hardened, deeply buried facility like Pickaxe.

For years, experts have talked about the likelihood that the main caverns under the mountain are beyond the reach of even the largest known conventional bunker buster bomb in U.S. inventory, the 30,000-pound-class GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). The MOP was developed, at least in part, specifically to hold underground facilities in Iran at risk . Construction at Pickaxe Mountain, especially in the past five years, is a clear response to U.S. threats.

MOPs were the centerpiece during the June 2025 Operation Midnight Hammer strikes , with 12 being dropped on Fordow and another two on Natanz. To get at the actual targets at Fordow, six MOPs were dropped on two specific ventilation shafts , with each successive bomb burrowing deeper down into the complex below. This underscores the challenges that would be involved in attempting a similar operation against Pickaxe Mountain. It is unclear how many MOPs the U.S. has left or whether there are enough to have the same kind of effects on Pickaxe Mountain as they had on Fordow and Natanz. We also don’t even know if any features of the installation, like the ventilation shafts, even exist there to be exploited.

CBS News reported last month that the White House and Pentagon “have prepared plans to use a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb [MOAB] to hit military sites in Iran,” including Pickaxe Mountain, “if ordered by President Trump.” However, the 22,000-pound-class MOAB, also designated the GBU-43/B, is not a deep-penetrating munition, it’s a fuel-air bomb, and it was not immediately clear from that story how the weapon might be employed. The bomb is also only known to be currently cleared for employment via C-130-type aircraft . It has only been used in combat once, in Afghanistan in 2017 , where the skies above were entirely permissive.

The MOAB sitting on its pallet. The weapon is released out of the rear cargo ramp of a C-130. (DoD)

MOAB’s use case would be limited against sites like Pickaxe Mountain. While its unique overpressure effects could harm any personnel exposed inside tunnel systems that are open to the outside world, it is unlikely to destroy or even heavily damage the hardened facilities themselves. It could cause damage to external support infrastructure and act as a psychological weapon in its own right, but it is not a bunker buster in any way.

As mentioned earlier, although for a nuclear weapon insertion mission, a much more dangerous option for American forces would be sending U.S. troops directly into Iran to secure and destroy the facility.

“Special Operations Forces [SOF] could render the site off-limits, at least for a time, but that would be a much riskier operation,” Schwartz noted.

We addressed the SOF option earlier this year in an interview with former U.S. Central Command commander Joseph Votel, who discussed the enormous challenges of putting boots on the ground so deep into Iranian territory. We have frequently discussed the complexities, pros and cons of a commando raid on an underground nuclear facility.

In a 2024 raid on a Syrian underground missile site , Israeli special operations forces used explosives they brought with them in order to blow up the underground facility, including sophisticated machinery, from inside.

Still doing this deep in Iran could require a relatively large force and an operation that could last days and would include occupying and defending a key area within the country as teams try to access the caverns. It depends on just how accessible and defended Pickaxe Mountain is.

The fallout dangers of using a nuclear weapon against Iran

The B61-11 “would dig up and disperse into the atmosphere large amounts of radioactive material,” Kristensen told us.

He pointed to the results he derived from the NUKEMAP nuclear weapons explosion effects simulation site to offer a sense of what could happen.

“A surface burst would, depending on wind conditions, spread debris nearly 300 km downwind,” he explained. “Perhaps further, because the simulation calculates a surface bust, while the B61-11 would penetrate a few meters into the rock and therefore increase the fallout issue.”

A screenshot of a simulation of effects of a U.S. B61-11 nuclear bomb if dropped on Pickaxe Mountain. (NUKEMAP)

If highly enriched uranium was stored underground, it would be hard to determine what would happen to it in such an attack, Kristensen added.

“It depends on how the attack is carried out,” Kristensen noted. “It could potentially be entombed or some of it could be lifted up into the atmosphere.”

“U.S. politicians and some civilian military leaders have, since the first Gulf War, periodically and misleadingly claimed that earth-penetrating nuclear weapons can safely and reliably destroy deeply-buried and hardened underground targets with no significant consequences above ground,” Schwartz proffered. “Nothing could be further from the truth, for the simple reason that earth-penetrating nuclear weapons have to, you know, penetrate the earth. That leaves a hole out of which radioactive dirt and gases will spew following any nuclear explosion (as happened more than once at the Nevada Test Site during the Cold War, when nuclear test shafts thought to be properly and fully stemmed or sealed failed, releasing vast and dangerous amounts of radioactive debris, contaminating both the test site and areas downwind.”)

55 years ago this morning, BANEBERRY—a 10-kiloton, weapons-related, underground nuclear test 912 feet beneath the Nevada Test Site—accidentally vented, releasing 6.7 million curies of radioactive debris, including 80,000 curies of iodine-131, the second largest venting in US history. (THREAD) — Stephen Schwartz (@atomicanalyst.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:30:48.030Z

55 years ago this morning, BANEBERRY—a 10-kiloton, weapons-related, underground nuclear test 912 feet beneath the Nevada Test Site—accidentally vented, releasing 6.7 million curies of radioactive debris, including 80,000 curies of iodine-131, the second largest venting in US history. (THREAD)

“The larger the explosion, the larger the venting,” Schwartz added. “Depending on which way the winds are blowing, downwind of Pickaxe Mountain could include Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.”

What about the geopolitical fallout?

In his X post, Carlson offered a blunt assessment of the geopolitical ramifications of a U.S. nuclear strike on Iran.

“An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent,” he stated. “The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable.”

As we have frequently reported , Putin has rattled the nuclear saber against the West as well as in Ukraine since the early days of his full-on invasion of that country.

“The United States has, Republican and Democratic administrations alike, worked hard to ensure that the achievement of no nuclear weapons use since 1945 is continued,” Kristensen told us. “If the Trump regime were to break that taboo, especially in a situation where there is no imminent or executed Iranian nuclear threat to the United States or its allies, it would turn the United States into the nuclear pariah. It would threaten political relations with allies that have also worked to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. And, yes, if the United States were to break the taboo, other nuclear armed states would feel less inhibited – Putin included.”

“If Trump decides to attack Iran with nuclear weapons in a purely preventive war of choice (with Iran presenting no imminent or probably even short-term threat, making such an attack illegal under international law), it will almost certainly unleash both global condemnation (apart from Israel) and a new wave of nuclear proliferation that will be extremely difficult if not impossible to stop,” said Schwartz. “That would be highly counterproductive for the United States and its allies. And while I am not an economist, it’s not hard to imagine there will be severe and negative global economic repercussions as well.”

The sentiments expressed by the nuclear experts echo what Rogoway stated on X.

“The potential game trees for many potential hotspots around the globe post use would be so terrifying it’s hard to comprehend,” he wrote. “All the softer levers the U.S. once had to deter such a thing, which has been effective for the better part of a century would vanish. Proliferation would explode. The U.S. would likely no longer be a superpower beyond it’s military capabilities and likely short-term wealth. [Every] ounce of moral highground would evaporate. The entire world would be on the brink by default.”

He also stated that this would quickly destroy key alliances.

The potential game trees for many potential hotspots around the globe post use would be so terrifying it's hard to comprehend. All the softer levers the U.S. once had to deter such a thing, which has been effective for the better part of a century would vanish. Proliferation… — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) November 2, 2026

The potential game trees for many potential hotspots around the globe post use would be so terrifying it's hard to comprehend. All the softer levers the U.S. once had to deter such a thing, which has been effective for the better part of a century would vanish. Proliferation…

We have no direct information about whether Trump is even contemplating the use a nuclear weapons against Iran or not. However, a discussion of the wide-ranging ramifications of such an unprecedented act is a worthwhile exercises, especially in these uncertain times, and even more so if this possibility has actually been floated within the administration.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

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发布于2026年11月2日晚上7:49（美国东部时间）。

周日晚间，评论员塔克·卡尔森发表了一项令人不寒而栗的言论：美国总统唐纳德·特朗普可能很快会对伊朗的皮克克斯山核设施使用核武器。卡尔森的言论发表在X网站上，距离11月3日的美国中期选举仅两天之遥。特朗普经常以选举结束后为时间节点，表示如果他决定的话，将会对伊朗发动新一轮空袭。然而，周一早些时候，特朗普淡化了这一期限，当记者问及他是否考虑在选举结束后发动攻击时，他回答“不”。

无论如何，卡尔森的说法与总统此前在核武器问题上的立场相悖。特朗普曾公开表示反对使用核武器，虽然他讨论过攻击皮克克斯山，但他明确表示，如果由他来决定，那将使用常规武器。

周一下午，白宫驳斥了卡尔森的说法。

一位白宫官员告诉我们：“特朗普总统在伊朗问题上有很多选择，他会采取正确的措施来保障美国人民的安全。塔克·卡尔森很久以前就患上了严重的‘特朗普精神错乱综合症’，他根本不了解军事计划，也不懂三军统帅的想法。”

我们不知道卡尔森的信息来源，也不知道其准确性如何。卡尔森与特朗普关系破裂，近年来发表了许多令人震惊的言论，尤其是在特朗普连任和伊朗战争方面。尽管如此，他仍然是右翼媒体中一位人脉广泛的人物。无论如何，正如TWZ主编泰勒·罗格威在X上指出的那样，即使是关于美国自1945年8月9日以来首次可能使用核武器的猜测，也值得讨论。这将产生如此深远且不可逆转的影响，不容忽视。我们在2022年也曾就俄罗斯和乌克兰问题讨论过同样的担忧。

1945年8月9日，在日本工业港口长崎上空，一股浓密的烟柱冲天而起，高达6万英尺（约18000米），这是人类历史上第二颗用于战争的原子弹爆炸造成的。（图片由美国国家档案馆/新闻人物提供）

罗格威表示：“如果美国或以色列在伊朗的[镐山]使用核武器，或者俄罗斯在乌克兰的一片空地上使用核武器，都无关紧要，这将会打开潘多拉魔盒，使美国乃至整个世界的安全状况急剧恶化。这甚至无关乎使用核武器会造成多大的灾难。如果我们卷入其中，那将是美国有史以来最大的外交政策错误。我们只能希望这种说法完全不属实。”

“……我不知道这种说法是否属实，但这仍然很重要，”他在X论坛的帖子中补充道。“它在我的X动态里疯传。必须对此做出回应。”

如果美国或以色列在伊朗的皮克斧山使用核武器，或者俄罗斯在乌克兰的一片空地上使用核武器，都无关紧要，这都会打开潘多拉魔盒，使美国乃至世界的安全状况急剧恶化。这甚至都无关乎后果有多严重……——泰勒·罗格威（@Aviation_Intel）2026年11月2日

如果美国或以色列在伊朗的皮克斧山使用核武器，或者俄罗斯在乌克兰的一片空地上使用核武器，都无关紧要，这都会打开潘多拉魔盒，使美国乃至整个世界的安全状况急剧恶化。这甚至都无关乎核武器的威力有多大……

位于伊朗中部的“镐山”（Pickaxe Mountain），又名库赫科朗加兹拉山（Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La），是一处防御极其严密的伊朗设施。正如我们之前提到的，它深埋地下，极难有效摧毁。伊朗过去曾公开讨论过在该地新建设施中建造离心机以支持其核浓缩活动的计划。据估计，该设施规模足以容纳一座真正的浓缩工厂以及其他核基础设施，但其内部究竟有何设施仍未得到证实。我们之前的报道对“镐山”及其背后的伊朗意图进行了更深入的分析。

伊朗的镐山设施。（卫星图像 ©2026 Vantor）

卡尔森在X网站上表示：“在以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的压力下，特朗普政府可能在几天内对伊朗发动核打击。目标将是伊朗中部的皮卡克斯山，以色列情报部门声称伊朗政府已在那里重启了核浓缩计划。美国武库中没有任何常规武器能够穿透300英尺厚的坚硬花岗岩，摧毁据称正在进行浓缩活动的隧道。”

评论员补充道：“唯一的军事选项就是核打击。内塔尼亚胡一直在极力推动此事。”一位知情人士透露：“‘内塔尼亚胡每天都就此事给特朗普打电话。’内塔尼亚胡已经走投无路，走投无路。上周的选举结果公布后，除非特朗普直接干预以色列政坛，斡旋达成一项协议，让内塔尼亚胡在议会中获得61个席位，否则他无法组建政府。否则，他将失去总理职位，并面临耻辱、调查，甚至牢狱之灾。内塔尼亚胡必须与特朗普保持密切联系。他需要这场战争。”

特朗普关于使用核武器的言论

“我们不需要它。我为什么要用它？”特朗普在四月份被问及是否会对伊朗使用核武器时如此回应。“为什么会有人问这么愚蠢的问题？我们明明已经用常规手段彻底摧毁了他们，我为什么要用核武器？”

“绝不应该允许任何人使用核武器，”他补充道。

美国领导人在8月份重申了这一立场。

“他们在军事上已经彻底战败了，所以我打败了他们，现在我还要对他们使用核武器吗？真是个愚蠢的问题，”特朗普在8月31日再次被记者问及是否会对伊朗使用核武器时如此回应道。

尽管如此，特朗普在4月份的一条社交媒体帖子中威胁要摧毁伊朗，引发了人们对他是否会使用核武器的担忧。

“今晚一个文明将彻底消亡，永世不得翻身，”特朗普在他的“真相社交”网站上写道。“我不想看到这种情况发生，但它很可能会发生。”

我们采访的几位专家都淡化了特朗普下令对皮卡克斯山进行核打击的可能性，但他们并没有完全排除这种可能性。

“可能性大吗？不大，”军备控制协会（ACA）执行主任兼该协会月刊《今日军备控制》的出版人和撰稿人达里尔·G·金博尔在被问及他是否认为特朗普会下令进行核打击时说道。“一个不稳定、绝望的总统，如果拥有授权使用核武器的唯一权力，他有可能这样做吗？有可能。鉴于目前的形势，至关重要的是，负责任的美国人士和国际领导人必须公开反对美国对伊朗进行任何形式的大规模打击。”

“这极不可能，”美国科学家联盟核信息项目主任汉斯·克里斯滕森向我们解释道。他同时也是双月刊《核能笔记》的撰稿人，并在斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所年鉴中撰写世界核力量概览。“伊朗没有任何理由打破81年来不使用核武器的惯例。这将违反国际战争法，对美国的外交政策以及防止核武器扩散和使用的努力造成毁灭性后果。我们希望，在这种情况下，核武器指挥链上的那些人会拒绝执行总统的命令。”

“说实话，我不知道包括特朗普本人在内，是否有人知道他会做什么或不会做什么，”《原子科学家公报》非常驻高级研究员斯蒂芬·I·施瓦茨告诉我们。“……多年来，他常常在无人追问的情况下，带着既警惕又敬畏的语气谈论核武器的巨大威力。但他同时也公开且反复地威胁要彻底摧毁朝鲜、阿富汗和伊朗。所以，真的，谁知道呢？”

如果特朗普下令发动核打击，美国可以使用什么武器？

正如我们过去报道的那样，B61-11 是目前美国武库中唯一一种专门针对这一目标而设计的空投核武器。

B61-11型炸弹是在早期B61-7型炸弹的基础上改进而来，但在外形和功能上却有显著差异。它拥有加固的外壳，可能装有贫铀穿透弹头，尾部还装有火箭助推器，以便穿透地下设施。关于B61-11型炸弹的最大当量，各方说法不一，有的说是340至360千吨（与B61-7型相同），有的则说接近400千吨。据报道，目前库存的这种炸弹不足100枚。

第一批B61-11型导弹于20世纪60年代投入使用。我们对该系列武器进行了广泛的报道。

这是一枚B61-11型核弹，或者更可能是其惰性版本。这是目前美国核武库中唯一已知的专用空投深穿透武器。（公共领域）

克里斯滕森告诉我们，鉴于B61-11核弹的当量，“一枚就足以”使皮克克斯山无法使用。“400千吨级核弹造成的附带损害将相当严重；即使一些深层结构可能幸存下来，但对整体基础设施的破坏——加上土壤中的残留辐射——很可能使该地点无法使用。其他潜在方案包括更传统的渗透攻击，以摧毁入口和可进入的基础设施，或者发动网络攻击，以破坏或瘫痪设备和功能。”

施瓦茨认为：“我认为美国和/或以色列可以利用许多非核选项来阻止伊朗重启其核武器计划（如果伊朗确实决定这样做的话）。这包括使用制导常规炸弹袭击该设施的任何入口，阻碍人员进入，并阻止/妨碍任何材料从山中运出。”

他补充说：“使用洲际弹道导弹并不是一个好选择。” “首先，任何洲际弹道导弹都必须飞越俄罗斯才能抵达伊朗，这在很多方面都存在风险，即便普京最终同意这样做。其次，洲际弹道导弹的弹头并非设计用于穿透地表，至少无法穿透到相当深的深度，因此爆炸的威力大部分都会在地表‘浪费’，这意味着会产生致命的放射性尘埃。（使用部署在伊朗附近海域的三叉戟潜艇发射潜射弹道导弹可以避免飞越俄罗斯的风险，但即便我们事先通知了俄罗斯和中国，发射后他们仍然会将我们视为威胁。但W76和W76-1弹头并非地穿弹，而且我怀疑我们是否愿意使用当量高达45.5万吨的W88弹头——我们最大的弹道导弹弹头，它也不是深层穿透弹。）”

W88 Alt 370型炸弹的起爆、引信和发射组件。（美国国家核安全管理局）

以色列拥有核武器计划，但它并未公开承认，并且可以通过其杰里科弹道导弹、一些战术喷气式飞机甚至可能是潜艇来投放核弹头。

特种部队有可能尝试突袭该设施，进入其内部并安放核装置，但这样的任务难度极大，风险也极高。我们也讨论过另一种可能性，即不使用核弹头，而是从内部对该设施进行辐射处理，例如安放并引爆一种脏弹。

还有很多其他方法，包括在杰里科基地安装炸弹，甚至可以突袭基地并在里面放置装置。我们讨论过甚至用辐射照射基地内部多年。——泰勒·罗戈威 (@Aviation_Intel) 2026年11月2日

还有很多其他方法可以做到，包括在杰里科BM上安装一个装置，甚至可以突袭那里并在里面安装装置。我们讨论过甚至对内部进行辐射处理，已经好几年了。

核武器的替代品有哪些？

正如我们在本文前面提到的，特朗普曾提出用常规武器攻击皮克克斯山。7月份，他表示那里已经到了“一记漂亮的重炮轰击”的好时机。

当时，我们讨论了要有效摧毁或使像 Pickaxe 这样坚固且深埋地下的设施无法运作是多么困难。

多年来，专家们一直认为，即使是美国现存最大的常规钻地炸弹——3万磅级的GBU-57/B巨型穿透弹（MOP）——也无法摧毁这座山下的主要洞穴。MOP的研发，至少部分原因是为了威胁伊朗的地下设施。皮克克斯山的建设，尤其是近五年来的建设，显然是对美国威胁的回应。

在2025年6月的“午夜铁锤行动”中，MOP（微型爆炸装置）是打击行动的核心，其中12枚被投放在福尔多基地，另有2枚被投放在纳坦兹基地。为了打击福尔多基地的实际目标，美军在两个特定的通风井投放了6枚MOP，每枚炸弹都深入到下方建筑群的更深处。这凸显了对皮克克斯山基地实施类似行动所面临的挑战。目前尚不清楚美军还剩下多少MOP，也不清楚这些MOP是否足以对皮克克斯山基地产生与福尔多和纳坦兹基地相同的效果。我们甚至不知道该基地是否存在通风井等可供利用的结构。

哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）上月报道称，白宫和五角大楼“已制定计划，如果特朗普总统下令，将使用巨型空爆炸弹（MOAB）袭击伊朗境内的军事目标”，包括皮克克斯山。然而，这种重达22000磅的MOAB，也被称为GBU-43/B，并非深穿透弹药，而是一种燃料空气炸弹。该报道并未明确说明这种武器将如何使用。目前已知该炸弹仅获准由C-130型运输机投放。它仅在2017年的阿富汗战争中使用过一次，当时阿富汗的空域完全允许投弹。

巨型炸弹“炸弹之母”（MOAB）静静地躺在托盘上。这枚武器将从C-130运输机的后部货舱坡道投放。（美国国防部）

MOAB 的用途仅限于像皮克克斯山这样的地点。虽然其独特的超压效应可能会伤害暴露在与外界相连的隧道系统内的人员，但它不太可能摧毁甚至严重损坏加固设施本身。它可能会破坏外部支撑基础设施，并起到一定的心理战作用，但它绝不是掩体克星。

如前所述，虽然对于核武器投放任务而言，对美军来说更危险的选择是直接派遣美军进入伊朗夺取并摧毁该设施。

施瓦茨指出：“特种作战部队（SOF）可以暂时封锁该地点，但这将是一项风险更大的行动。”

今年早些时候，我们在采访美国中央司令部前司令约瑟夫·沃特尔时探讨了特种作战部队选项。沃特尔谈到了深入伊朗境内部署地面部队所面临的巨大挑战。我们也曾多次讨论过突袭地下核设施的复杂性、利弊。

2024 年，以色列特种部队突袭了叙利亚的一个地下导弹发射井，并使用了他们带来的炸药，从内部炸毁了该地下设施，其中包括精密的机械设备。

即便如此，在伊朗腹地开展这项行动仍需相当大的兵力，而且行动可能持续数日，其中包括占领和防御该国境内的关键区域，以便队伍能够进入洞穴。这取决于镐山的易达性和防御难度。

对伊朗使用核武器的后果和危险

克里斯滕森告诉我们，B61-11“会挖掘出大量放射性物质并将其散布到大气中”。

他指出，他从 NUKEMAP 核武器爆炸效应模拟网站获得的结果，可以说明可能会发生什么。

他解释说：“根据风况，地表爆炸会将碎片散布到下风方向近300公里处。或许更远，因为模拟计算的是地表爆炸，而B61-11型炸弹会穿透岩石几米，因此会加剧放射性尘埃的扩散问题。”

这是一张模拟美国B61-11型核弹在皮克克斯山爆炸效果的截图。（NUKEMAP）

克里斯滕森补充说，如果高浓缩铀储存在地下，那么在这种袭击中它会发生什么情况，就很难确定。

克里斯滕森指出：“这取决于袭击是如何进行的。它有可能被掩埋，或者部分物质可能会被送入大气层。”

施瓦茨指出：“自第一次海湾战争以来，美国政客和一些文职军事领导人时不时地、误导性地声称，穿透地表的核武器可以安全可靠地摧毁深埋地下的加固目标，而不会对地面造成重大影响。事实并非如此，原因很简单：穿透地表的核武器必须穿透地下。这会在地下留下一个洞，任何核爆炸后，放射性尘土和气体都会从中喷涌而出（冷战期间，内华达州核试验场就曾多次发生这种情况，当时一些被认为已妥善封堵的核试验井发生泄漏，释放出大量危险的放射性碎片，污染了试验场及其下风向区域）。”

55年前的今天早上，位于内华达州试验场地下912英尺（276米）的10千吨级武器相关地下核试验“班尼贝里”（BANEBERRY）意外泄漏，释放出670万居里的放射性物质，其中包括8万居里的碘-131，这是美国历史上第二大放射性物质泄漏事件。（推文）—— Stephen Schwartz (@atomicanalyst.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:30:48.030Z

55年前的今天上午，位于内华达试验场地下912英尺（276米）的10千吨级武器相关地下核试验“班尼贝里”发生意外泄漏，释放出670万居里的放射性物质，其中包括8万居里的碘-131，这是美国历史上第二大放射性物质泄漏事件。（THREAD）

施瓦茨补充说：“爆炸越大，排放物就越多。根据风向，皮克克斯山的下风向可能包括伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、阿拉伯联合酋长国、阿曼、土耳其、阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、土库曼斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、阿富汗和巴基斯坦。”

那么，地缘政治影响会如何呢？

卡尔森在 X 帖子中对美国对伊朗进行核打击的地缘政治影响进行了直言不讳的评估。

他表示：“美国对伊朗发动核打击将开创一个新先例。俄罗斯已经告诉至少另外两个国家的政府，美国对伊朗的核打击将使他们可以自由地对乌克兰使用核武器。巴基斯坦和印度也会受到诱惑，互相发动核打击，朝鲜也会对韩国发动核打击。第一次核打击之后，第三次世界大战将不可避免。”

正如我们多次报道的那样，自从普京全面入侵乌克兰以来，他就一直在对西方和乌克兰挥舞核武库。

克里斯滕森告诉我们：“自1945年以来，美国历届共和党和民主党政府都一直努力确保不使用核武器的成果得以延续。如果特朗普政府打破这一禁忌，尤其是在伊朗对美国及其盟友没有迫在眉睫或已实施的核威胁的情况下，美国将沦为核弃儿。这将威胁到与同样致力于防止使用核武器的盟友的政治关系。而且，如果美国打破禁忌，其他拥有核武器的国家——包括普京在内——也会感到更加肆无忌惮。”

施瓦茨表示：“如果特朗普决定以纯粹的预防性战争为由，对伊朗发动核武器攻击（而伊朗并未构成迫在眉睫的威胁，甚至可能短期内也不会构成威胁，因此根据国际法，这种攻击是非法的），那么几乎可以肯定的是，这将引发全球（除以色列外）的谴责，并导致新一轮核扩散浪潮，而这即便不是完全不可能，也极难阻止。这对美国及其盟友来说将是极其不利的。虽然我不是经济学家，但也不难想象，这将对全球经济造成严重的负面影响。”

核专家们表达的观点与罗戈威在 X 上所说的相呼应。

他写道：“核武器一旦被使用，其在全球许多潜在热点地区可能造成的后果将不堪设想，令人不寒而栗。美国过去用来遏制核武器扩散的那些较为温和的手段，在过去近一个世纪里都行之有效，如今都将不复存在。核武器扩散将呈爆炸式增长。美国除了军事实力和短期财富之外，很可能不再是超级大国。其道德制高点也将荡然无存。整个世界将自然而然地处于崩溃的边缘。”

他还表示，这将迅速摧毁关键联盟。

一旦核武器投入使用，其在全球许多潜在热点地区可能造成的后果将不堪设想，令人不寒而栗。美国过去用来遏制此类事件的所有温和手段，以及近一个世纪以来行之有效的措施，都将不复存在。核武器扩散……——泰勒·罗格威（@Aviation_Intel）2026年11月2日

一旦核武器被使用，其在全球许多潜在热点地区的潜在应用前景将不堪设想，令人不寒而栗。美国过去用来遏制此类事件的所有温和手段——这些手段在过去近一个世纪里都行之有效——都将不复存在。核武器扩散……

我们目前没有直接信息表明特朗普是否正在考虑对伊朗使用核武器。然而，探讨这种史无前例的举动可能带来的广泛影响是值得的，尤其是在当前局势不明朗的情况下，如果这种可能性确实在政府内部被提出，那就更有意义了。

联系作者：howard@twz.com

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