US special ops may be buying too many Armed Overwatch planes, says GAO

WASHINGTON — U.S. Special Operations Command should reconsider its plan to buy 75 Armed Overwatch aircraft , a government watchdog said Thursday.

The Government Accountability Office recommended the command slow down its acquisition of the AT-802U Sky Warden, its choice for Armed Overwatch program , beginning in fiscal 2025 until SOCOM carries out a more thorough analysis for the fleet.

Armed Overwatch is a program to field flexible, fixed-wing aircraft that Air Force Special Operations Command could deploy to austere locations. The effort would require a relatively small logistical tail.

SOCOM in 2022 selected the single-engine, two-person Sky Warden, made by L3Harris Technologies and Air Tractor , for the program and expects to spend $2.2 billion to buy the planes through FY29. The Sky Warden is intended to carry out close air support; precision strike; and armed intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions for counterterrorism operations and irregular warfare.

Air Force Special Operations Command considers Armed Overwatch useful to pressure violent extremist groups in areas such as Africa, where the airspace is essentially uncontested. The aircraft would take over missions now supported by the older and retiring U-28 Draco.

But the study SOCOM performed to decide it needed 75 Armed Overwatch planes “relied on unproven assumptions” and didn’t justify a fleet of that size, GAO said in its report, titled “Special Operations Forces: DOD Should Slow Acquisition of Armed Overwatch Aircraft Until It Conducts Needed Analysis.”

When GAO ran the numbers on the command’s force structure ratios and operational need estimates, it came up with a “substantially smaller” fleet size, though the watchdog did not say by how many.

SOCOM’s studies also made assumptions about the Armed Overwatch aircraft that didn’t reflect its expected capabilities or how it would be employed in operations, GAO said.

The office said documents and discussions with SOCOM officials showed the command had already decided it needed between 70 and 75 Armed Overwatch planes in 2019, two years before it started the necessary force structure analyses.

SOCOM also didn’t consider how changes to its mission, such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and possible reductions in force structure would affect its need for an Armed Overwatch plane, GAO said.

SOCOM also did not factor in whether changes in the Armed Overwatch plane’s capabilities would affect how many it would need to buy, GAO said. The Sky Warden plane on which SOCOM ultimately settled is more capable than the airplane the command originally envisioned for Armed Overwatch, which “could significantly change” how many planes it actually needs, the report said.

GAO did not rule out the possibility that the intended fleet of 75 may be fewer than SOCOM needs, since the proper analysis has not been performed. The office recommended SOCOM conduct a more thorough study of what it needs for Armed Overwatch. Until that analysis is done, GAO said, the Pentagon should require the command to only buy the minimum number of Sky Wardens needed to maintain its production line and support operational test and evaluation beginning in 2025.

The Defense Department agreed with GAO’s first recommendation and said it would analyze the force structure needed for Armed Overwatch.

The department partially agreed with the recommendation to temporarily limit Armed Overwatch acquisition, but said SOCOM will also consider whether it has enough aircraft to train the first cadre of aircrew to fly the Sky Warden and set up a training pipeline.

GAO said it agrees that training aircrews is an important part of setting up Armed Overwatch, but buying the right number of planes is important for SOCOM to set up its training plans and use personnel most efficiently.

SOCOM bought 16 Sky Wardens as of October 2023, and expects that number to rise to 28 aircraft by April 2024.

Stephen Losey is the air warfare reporter for Defense News. He previously covered leadership and personnel issues at Air Force Times, and the Pentagon, special operations and air warfare at Military.com. He has traveled to the Middle East to cover U.S. Air Force operations.

华盛顿——美国政府监督机构周四表示，美国特种作战司令部应该重新考虑购买75架武装监视飞机的计划。

美国政府问责局建议特种作战司令部从 2025 财年开始放缓采购 AT-802U 天空守卫者（其武装监视计划的选择），直到特种作战司令部对该机队进行更彻底的分析。

“武装警戒”计划旨在部署灵活的固定翼飞机，供空军特种作战司令部部署到条件艰苦的地区。该计划所需的后勤保障相对较小。

美国特种作战司令部 (SOCOM) 于 2022 年选定了由 L3Harris Technologies 和 Air Tractor 联合制造的单引擎双座“天空守卫者”无人机，用于该项目，并预计在 2029 财年之前花费 22 亿美元采购这些飞机。“天空守卫者”旨在执行近距离空中支援、精确打击以及武装情报、监视和侦察任务，用于反恐行动和非常规战争。

美国空军特种作战司令部认为，武装警戒行动对于在非洲等空域基本不受限制的地区打击暴力极端组织非常有效。该型飞机将接替目前由老旧且即将退役的U-28“天龙”侦察机执行的任务。

但美国政府问责局在其题为《特种作战部队：国防部应放慢采购武装监视飞机的速度，直到进行必要的分析》的报告中指出，特种作战司令部为决定需要 75 架武装监视飞机而进行的研究“依赖于未经证实的假设”，并没有证明拥有如此规模的机队的合理性。

当美国政府问责局 (GAO) 对该司令部的兵力结构比例和作战需求估算进行计算时，得出的结论是舰队规模“大幅缩小”，但该监督机构没有说明缩小了多少。

美国政府问责局表示，特种作战司令部的研究还对武装监视飞机做出了一些假设，这些假设并没有反映出该飞机的预期能力或其在作战中的使用方式。

该办公室表示，文件和与特种作战司令部官员的讨论表明，该司令部早在 2019 年就已决定需要 70 至 75 架武装监视飞机，而这比开始必要的部队结构分析早了两年。

美国政府问责局表示，特种作战司令部也没有考虑其任务的变化（例如从阿富汗撤军）以及可能的兵力结构缩减会如何影响其对武装监视飞机的需求。

美国政府问责局（GAO）表示，特种作战司令部（SOCOM）也没有考虑到“武装监视”飞机的性能变化是否会影响其所需采购数量。报告指出，SOCOM最终选定的“空中守卫者”飞机性能优于该司令部最初设想的“武装监视”飞机，这“可能会显著改变”其实际所需的飞机数量。

美国政府问责局（GAO）并未排除计划采购的75架“空中守卫者”无人机数量可能少于特种作战司令部（SOCOM）实际需求的可能性，因为尚未进行充分的分析。GAO建议SOCOM对其“武装警戒”行动的需求进行更深入的研究。GAO表示，在完成这项分析之前，五角大楼应要求SOCOM仅采购维持生产线运转以及支持2025年开始的作战测试与评估所需的最低数量的“空中守卫者”无人机。

国防部同意了美国政府问责局的第一项建议，并表示将分析武装监视所需的兵力结构。

该部门部分同意暂时限制“武装守望”采购的建议，但表示特种作战司令部还将考虑是否有足够的飞机来训练第一批驾驶“空中守望者”的机组人员，并建立培训体系。

美国政府问责局表示，它同意训练机组人员是建立武装监视系统的重要组成部分，但购买适量的飞机对于特种作战司令部制定训练计划和最有效地利用人员至关重要。

截至 2023 年 10 月，SOCOM 已购买 16 架“空中守卫者”无人机，预计到 2024 年 4 月，这一数字将增至 28 架。

斯蒂芬·洛西是《防务新闻》的空战记者。他此前曾在《空军时报》报道领导层和人事问题，并在Military.com网站报道五角大楼、特种作战和空战。他曾前往中东报道美国空军的行动。