Biden’s withdrawal injects uncertainty into wars, foreign policy

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race injects greater uncertainty into the world at a time when Western leaders are grappling with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, a more assertive China in Asia and the rise of the far right in Europe.

During a five-decade career in politics , Biden developed extensive personal relationships with multiple foreign leaders that none of the potential replacements on the Democratic ticket can match. After his announcement, messages of support and gratitude for his years of service poured in from near and far.

The scope of foreign policy challenges facing the next U.S. president makes clear how consequential what happens in Washington is for the rest of the planet. Here’s a look at some of them.

With Vice President Kamala Harris being eyed as a potential replacement for Biden , Israelis on Sunday scrambled to understand what her candidacy would mean for their country as it confronts increasing global isolation over its military campaign against Hamas.

Israel’s left-wing Haaretz daily newspaper ran a story scrutinizing Harris’ record of support for Israel, pointing to her reputation as Biden’s “bad cop” who has vocally admonished Israel for its offensive in Gaza. In recent months, she has gone further than Biden in calling for a cease-fire, denouncing Israel’s invasion of Rafah and expressing horror over the civilian death toll in Gaza.

“With Biden leaving, Israel has lost perhaps the last Zionist president,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “A new Democratic candidate will upend the dynamic.”

Biden’s staunch defense of Israel since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack has its roots in his half-century of support for the country as a senator, vice president and then president. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant thanked Biden for his “unwavering support of Israel over the years.”

“Your steadfast backing, especially during the war, has been invaluable,” Gallant wrote on social media platform X.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog praised Biden as a “symbol of the unbreakable bond between our two peoples” and a “true ally of the Jewish people.” There was no immediate reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an ally of former President Donald Trump whose history of cordial relations with Biden has come under strain during the Israel-Hamas war .

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he respected the “tough but strong decision” by Biden to drop out of the campaign, and he thanked Biden for his help “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country.” (Jose Luis Magana/AP)

Any Democratic candidate would likely continue Biden’s legacy of staunch military support for Ukraine . But frustration with the Biden administration has grown in Ukraine and Europe over the slow pace of U.S. aid and restrictions on the use of Western weapons.

“Most Europeans realize that Ukraine is increasingly going to be their burden,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund, a research institute. “Everyone is trying to get ready for all the possible outcomes.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X that he respected the “tough but strong decision” by Biden to drop out of the campaign, and he thanked Biden for his help “in preventing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin from occupying our country.”

Trump has promised to end Russia’s war on Ukraine in one day if he is elected — a prospect that has raised fears in Ukraine that Russia might be allowed to keep the territory it occupies.

Trump’s vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance , is among Congress’ most vocal opponents of U.S. aid for Ukraine and has further raised the stakes for Kyiv.

Russia, meanwhile, dismissed the importance of the race, insisting that no matter what happened, Moscow would press on in Ukraine.

“That’s it for Biden,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security council, said on the Telegram messaging app. “The goals of the special military operation will be achieved,” he added, using the Kremlin’s term for the war in Ukraine.

In recent months, both Biden and Trump have tried to show voters who can best stand up to Beijing’s growing military strength and belligerence and protect U.S. businesses and workers from low-priced Chinese imports. Biden has hiked tariffs on electric vehicles from China, and Trump has promised to implement tariffs of 60% on all Chinese products.

Trump’s “America First” doctrine exacerbated tensions with Beijing. But disputes with the geopolitical rival and economic colossus over wars, trade, technology and security continued into Biden’s term.

China’s official reaction to the U.S. presidential race has been careful.

“The U.S. elections are U.S. internal politics. I have no comment on this,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.

The editor of the Communist Party-run Global Times newspaper, Hu Xijin, downplayed the impact of Biden’s withdrawal.

“Whoever becomes the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party may be the same,” he wrote on X.

With Iran’s proxies across the Middle East increasingly entangled in the Israel-Hamas war, the U.S. confronts a region in disarray.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis struck Tel Aviv for the first time last week, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes inside war-torn Yemen. Simmering tensions and cross-border attacks between Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group and the Israeli military have raised fears of an all-out regional conflagration.

Hamas, which also receives support from Iran, continues to fight Israel even nine months into a war that has killed 38,000 Palestinians and displaced over 80% of Gaza’s population.

The U.S. and its allies have accused Iran of expanding its nuclear program and enriching uranium to an unprecedented 60%, near-weapons-grade levels.

After then-President Trump in 2018 withdrew from Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers , Biden said he wanted to reverse his predecessor’s hawkish stance. But the Biden administration has maintained severe economic sanctions and overseen failed attempts to renegotiate the agreement.

The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi — the supreme leader’s hard-line protege — in a helicopter crash vaulted a new reformist to the presidency in Iran, generating new opportunities and risks. Masoud Pezeshkian has said he wants to help Iran open up to the world but has maintained a defiant tone against the U.S.

During a briefing Monday, Nasser Kanaani, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, brushed off Biden’s withdrawal.

“To us, the coming and going of governments and persons on top of the U.S administration is not important on its own,” he said. “What can change the atmosphere of relations is a fundamental change in this (U.S.) hostile policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

President Joe Biden pumps his fist during a family photo at the NATO summit, Wednesday, July 10, 2024, in Washington. (Evan Vucci/AP)

Many Europeans were happy to see Trump go after his years of disparaging the European Union and undermining NATO. Trump’s seemingly dismissive attitude toward European allies in last month’s presidential debate did nothing to assuage those concerns.

Biden, on the other hand, has supported close American relations with bloc leaders .

That closeness was on stark display after Biden’s decision to bow out of the race. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called his choice “probably the most difficult one in your life.” The newly installed British prime minister, Keir Starmer, said he respected Biden’s “decision based on what he believes is in the best interests of the American people.”

There was also an outpouring of affection from Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, who called Biden a “proud American with an Irish soul.”

The question of whether NATO can maintain its momentum in supporting Ukraine and checking the ambitions of other authoritarian states hangs in the balance of this presidential election, analysts say.

“They don’t want to see Donald Trump as president. So there’s quite a bit of relief but also quite a bit of nervousness” about Biden’s decision to drop out, said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Like many in the United States, but perhaps more so, they are really quite confused.”

The close relationship between Mexico and the U.S. has been marked in recent years by disagreements over trade, energy and climate change. Since President Andrés Manuel López Obrador took power in 2018, both countries have found common ground on issue of migration — with Mexico making it more difficult for migrants to cross its country to the U.S. border and the U.S. not pressing on other issues.

The López Obrador administration kept that policy while Trump was president and continued it into Biden’s term.

On Friday, Mexico’s president called Trump “a friend” and said he would write to him to warn him against pledging to close the border or blaming migrants for bringing drugs into the United States.

“I am going to prove to him that migrants don’t carry drugs to the United States,” he said, adding that “closing the border won’t solve anything, and anyway, it can’t be done.”

Associated Press writers Jill Lawless in London, Daria Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia, and Josh Goodman in Miami contributed to this report.

乔·拜登退出美国总统竞选，给世界带来了更大的不确定性。此时，西方领导人正努力应对乌克兰和加沙的战争、亚洲日益强势的中国以及欧洲极右势力的崛起。

在长达五十年的政治生涯中，拜登与多位外国领导人建立了广泛的私人关系，这是民主党候选人中任何一位都无法比拟的。在他宣布参选后，来自世界各地的支持和感谢信息纷至沓来，感谢他多年来为国家做出的贡献。

下一任美国总统面临的外交政策挑战之广，清楚地表明了华盛顿的局势对世界其他地区的影响有多么深远。以下列举其中一些挑战。

由于副总统卡马拉·哈里斯被视为拜登的潜在替代者，以色列人周日争相了解，在以色列因对哈马斯的军事行动而面临日益加剧的全球孤立之际，她的候选资格对以色列意味着什么。

以色列左翼日报《国土报》刊登了一篇报道，仔细审视了哈里斯支持以色列的记录，指出她被认为是拜登的“坏警察”，曾公开谴责以色列在加沙的军事行动。近几个月来，她在呼吁停火、谴责以色列入侵拉法以及对加沙平民死亡人数表示震惊方面，立场比拜登更为强硬。

“随着拜登的离任，以色列或许失去了最后一位犹太复国主义总统，”以色列前驻纽约总领事阿隆·平卡斯说。“新的民主党候选人将彻底改变这种局面。”

自哈马斯10月7日袭击事件以来，拜登对以色列的坚定支持源于他作为参议员、副总统和总统长达半个世纪以来对以色列的支持。以色列国防部长约阿夫·加兰特感谢拜登“多年来对以色列的坚定支持”。

“你们坚定不移的支持，尤其是在战争期间，是无比宝贵的，”加兰特在社交媒体平台 X 上写道。

以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格称赞拜登是“两国人民之间牢不可破的纽带的象征”和“犹太民族的真正盟友”。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡尚未对此作出回应。内塔尼亚胡是前总统唐纳德·特朗普的盟友，他与拜登之间曾经的友好关系在以哈战争期间变得紧张。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他尊重拜登退出竞选的“艰难而坚定的决定”，并感谢拜登帮助“阻止（俄罗斯总统）普京占领我们的国家”。（Jose Luis Magana/AP）

任何民主党候选人都可能延续拜登对乌克兰坚定的军事支持政策。但由于美国援助步伐缓慢以及对使用西方武器的限制，乌克兰和欧洲对拜登政府的不满情绪日益增长。

“大多数欧洲人都意识到，乌克兰问题将日益成为他们的负担，”德国马歇尔基金会柏林办事处主任苏达·戴维-威尔普说。“每个人都在努力为所有可能出现的结果做好准备。”

乌克兰总统泽连斯基在X电视台表示，他尊重拜登退出竞选的“艰难而坚定的决定”，并感谢拜登帮助“阻止（俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔）普京占领我们的国家”。

特朗普承诺，如果他当选，将在一天之内结束俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争——这一前景引发了乌克兰方面的担忧，即俄罗斯可能会被允许继续占领其领土。

特朗普选择的副总统候选人，俄亥俄州参议员 JD Vance，是国会中反对美国援助乌克兰最激烈的议员之一，这进一步加剧了基辅面临的风险。

与此同时，俄罗斯则轻描淡写地看待这场竞赛，坚称无论发生什么，莫斯科都将继续在乌克兰推进军事行动。

“拜登的时代结束了，”俄罗斯联邦安全委员会副主席德米特里·梅德韦杰夫在Telegram即时通讯软件上说道。“特别军事行动的目标将会实现，”他补充道，这里他使用了克里姆林宫对乌克兰战争的称呼。

近几个月来，拜登和特朗普都试图向选民展示谁能更好地应对北京日益增长的军事实力和挑衅行为，并保护美国企业和工人免受中国低价进口商品的冲击。拜登提高了对中国电动汽车的关税，而特朗普则承诺对所有中国商品征收60%的关税。

特朗普的“美国优先”政策加剧了与北京的紧张关系。但与这个地缘政治对手和经济巨头在战争、贸易、技术和安全等问题上的争端一直延续到拜登任期内。

中国官方对美国总统大选的反应一直很谨慎。

“美国大选是美国内政，我对此不予置评。”外交部发言人毛宁表示。

中共中央机关报《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进淡化了拜登退出竞选的影响。

“无论谁成为民主党的总统候选人，都可能是同一个人，”他在X上写道。

随着伊朗在中东的代理人日益卷入以色列与哈马斯之间的战争，美国面临着一个混乱的地区。

也门胡塞武装上周首次袭击特拉维夫，引发以色列在饱受战火蹂躏的也门境内进行报复性空袭。黎巴嫩真主党武装组织（同样由伊朗支持）与以色列军方之间持续不断的紧张局势和跨境袭击，加剧了人们对地区全面冲突爆发的担忧。

哈马斯也得到了伊朗的支持，尽管战争已经持续了九个月，造成 38,000 名巴勒斯坦人死亡，加沙超过 80% 的人口流离失所，但哈马斯仍在继续与以色列作战。

美国及其盟友指责伊朗扩大其核计划，并将铀浓缩至前所未有的 60%，接近武器级水平。

2018年，时任总统特朗普退出了伊朗与世界大国达成的具有里程碑意义的核协议后，拜登曾表示希望扭转其前任的强硬立场。但拜登政府一直维持着严厉的经济制裁，并主导了重新谈判该协议的失败尝试。

伊朗最高领袖的强硬派门生易卜拉欣·莱希在直升机坠毁事故中猝然离世，使得一位新的改革派人士接任伊朗总统，这既带来了新的机遇，也带来了新的风险。马苏德·佩泽什基安曾表示，他希望帮助伊朗向世界开放，但同时对美国也保持着强硬态度。

周一的简报会上，伊朗外交部发言人纳赛尔·卡纳尼对拜登的退出不予理睬。

他说：“对我们而言，美国政府高层人员的更迭本身并不重要。真正能够改变美伊关系氛围的，是美国对伊朗伊斯兰共和国的敌对政策发生根本性改变。”

2024年7月10日，星期三，在华盛顿举行的北约峰会上，美国总统乔·拜登在拍摄全家福时挥舞拳头。（埃文·武奇/美联社）

许多欧洲人乐见特朗普结束多年来贬低欧盟和破坏北约的行径。然而，特朗普在上个月的总统辩论中对欧洲盟友表现出的轻蔑态度，更加剧了这些担忧。

另一方面，拜登一直支持美国与集团领导人保持密切关系。

拜登决定退出竞选后，这种接近程度更加凸显。波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克称他的选择“可能是你一生中最艰难的决定”。新上任的英国首相基尔·斯塔默表示，他尊重拜登“基于他认为最符合美国人民利益的决定”。

爱尔兰总理西蒙·哈里斯也表达了浓浓的爱意，称拜登是“一位拥有爱尔兰灵魂的骄傲的美国人”。

分析人士表示，北约能否继续保持对乌克兰的支持力度，并遏制其他威权国家的野心，取决于这次总统选举的结果。

“他们不想看到唐纳德·特朗普当选总统。所以，对于拜登退出竞选的决定，他们既感到如释重负，又感到相当不安，”欧洲对外关系委员会研究主任杰里米·夏皮罗说。“和许多美国人一样，甚至可能更甚，他们真的非常困惑。”

近年来，墨西哥和美国之间的密切关系也因贸易、能源和气候变化等问题上的分歧而有所凸显。自安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔总统2018年上任以来，两国在移民问题上找到了共同点——墨西哥加大了移民越境进入美国的难度，而美国则在其他问题上不再施压。

洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔政府在特朗普担任总统期间维持了这一政策，并在拜登任期内继续推行。

周五，墨西哥总统称特朗普为“朋友”，并表示他将写信警告特朗普不要承诺关闭边境或指责移民将毒品带入美国。

“我要向他证明，移民不会把毒品带到美国，”他说，“关闭边境解决不了任何问题，而且无论如何，这都做不到。”

美联社驻伦敦记者吉尔·劳莱斯、驻爱沙尼亚塔林记者达里娅·利特维诺娃和驻迈阿密记者乔什·古德曼对本报道亦有贡献。